Yahooooo! There are 13 games on the Yahoo main slate that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
My top play is Kirk Cousins at $34. I know, I know. Before you throw internet tomatoes at my internet head, hear me out. I like Josh Allen a lot this weekend as he’s the highest projected quarterback in the softest matchup. That said, I do think the Bills lean on the run because the Texans will likely be unable to muster up the offense to keep Allen aggressive and their run defense is so, so weak. Zach Moss, anyone?
Why do I like Cousins? Well, he’s priced at the same level as Allen, Matthew Stafford, and Lamar Jackson, so the projected ownership should be very low. The Vegas Dashboard has this game with a healthy O/U of 51.5, but there are three games with a higher number, so it could get overlooked. In addition, I think this game has a chance of turning into a shootout.
The Vikings would prefer to run the ball and play defense, but the Browns are fourth in rush defense DVOA and have an implied total of 26 points, so Cousins will likely have to be aggressive in this one. Cousins has thrown for 351, 244, and 323 yards in three games so far with two, three, and three touchdowns, respectively. That’s translated to 22.04, 25.26, and 25.12 Yahoo points.
Cousins has been a home dog in three games as a Viking. Per the Trends tool, he’s averaged 24.74 fantasy points per game with a 100% Consistency Rating as a home dog.
Top Value
My top value is Baker Mayfield at $24. There’s always a risk with Mayfield because the Browns are one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. Currently, they are at 53.4%, which is second to only New Orleans. That said, he has had some massive games in the past.
In Week 7 last year, he threw for 297 yards and five touchdowns. In Week 13, he threw for 334 yards and four touchdowns, while the following week, he went for a season-high 28-of-47 for 343 yards and two touchdowns. The scores of those contests? 37-34, 41-35, and 42-47.
I do think this game has a chance to shoot out like that, especially since the Vikings are 24th in pass defense DVOA. Both Breshad Breeland and Patrick Peterson are rated low by PFF.
Is this the Odell Beckham Jr. breakout game?
Top Tournament Play
Dak Prescott at $35 is my favorite tournament play. Are we sure that the Panthers are as good as the numbers suggest? PFF has them rated as the No. 1 overall defense, fifth in rush defense, fifth in pass rush, and second in coverage. They’ve played the Jets, Saints, and Texans to open the season. The Cowboys are a different beast than those teams.
This game has an implied total of 51.5, with the Cowboys projected for 28 points. There’s a chance that Dak goes under-rostered due to the Panthers’ defensive rankings. If the projected ownership gets too high, then I’d reconsider.
Running Backs
Top Play
My top play is David Montgomery at $21.
It’s really hard to go against Derrick Henry this week, especially because of the matchup. The Titans are favored by eight points over the Jets, who are 25th in rush defense, according to PFF. Per the Trends tool, Henry has played four games in which the Titans have been favored by at least seven points on the road. In those games, he’s averaged 35.13 DraftKings points (Yahoo points data wasn’t available) and had a Plus/Minus of +15.14.
The likelihood of him smashing is very high, but the rostership will reflect that. In addition, he’s priced at $41. What if he only scores 20.2 DraftKings points as he did in one of the four games mentioned above. What if Henry gets hurt? What if Henry racks up all the yardage, but Ryan Tannehill throws the touchdowns?
There are paths to Henry not smashing. Is it highly probable? No, but it’s within the range of outcomes. If he has a so-so game and you find a player who can score close to him at a cheaper cost and, more importantly, lower ownership, that could be huge.
Montgomery has been brutal the last two games after scoring 18.3 Yahoo points in Week 1. Well, the Bengals are sixth in rush defense while the Browns are third. The Bears get to face a Lions team that is 24th in rush defense. With the struggles at the quarterback position, the coaching staff will likely want to lean on the run game.
The Bears are at home, are favored by 2.5 points, and this could be the game script where the run game and defense lead the way, with Montgomery getting close to 20 carries with touchdown equity.
Top Value
My top value is Chubba Hubbard at $17. The Cowboys are 21st in rush defense, according to PFF, so the matchup is a good one.
After Christian McCaffrey went down last week, Hubbard led the way with 55% of the total snaps while Royce Freeman received 15%. Hubbard ended the game with 11 attempts for 52 yards. The key is that he caught three of five targets for 27 yards, so he will not be game-script dependent.
Matt Rhule came out and said that the offense will not change without McCaffrey. Last year, Mike Davis rushed 165 times for 642 yards and six touchdowns while catching 59 or 70 targets for 373 yards and two touchdowns.
Top Tournament Play
Zach Moss at $20 is intriguing. At this price, who’s clicking Moss? He splits carries with Devin Singletary, and the Bills are one of the pass-heaviest teams.
That said, Josh Allen will likely be the highest-rostered quarterback this week. And for a good reason, because the matchup is soft and recency bias from his explosion last week.
Moss provides direct leverage against Allen teams. While he does split carries and snaps with Singletary, he is still 14th in the league with 10 red-zone opportunities. The Texans are 26th in run defense, and the Bills have been known to flow like water on a week-to-week basis.
It won’t surprise me if Moss scores two touchdowns this week to cause havoc in the Twitter streets.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
My top play is Davante Adams at $33.
I believe that most will flock to Cooper Kupp this week. And why not? He’s been nothing short of amazing. You don’t think defensive coordinators see that too? The Cardinals are third in coverage, according to PFF, and third in pass defense DVOA. The pace that Kupp is on is unsustainable, and I expect Robert Woods to join the party at some point.
So, with most of the projected ownership going to Kupp, Adams will still get plenty of interest, but it could be mitigated somewhat because of the Steelers’ defensive reputation. Here’s the thing, though. While the Steelers boast a top-five rush defense unit, they are 30th in coverage.
Adams has garnered seven, nine, and 18 targets to start the season. The 11.3 average is tops in the league. The Packers should find it difficult to run against the Steelers so Adams could function as the defacto run game.
Top Value
My top value is Courtland Sutton at $19.
As with Adams above, the Broncos should find it difficult to run against the Ravens, who are 10th in rush defense DVOA. Like the Steelers, the Ravens are poor in coverage, ranking 27th in that department. Marlon Humphrey is the highest-rated cornerback for the Ravens, but he primarily stays on the left side of the formation. Sutton moves all over the place and could get matchups against Tavon Young and Anthony Averett, who grade poorly, according to PFF.
Sutton has received three, 12, and five targets this season, but he is the alpha of the group. The Broncos haven’t needed to pass much in the first three games, but the volume should tick up in this one. In addition, with all the injuries to the Broncos wide receiver group, the target tree should be concentrated with Sutton at the top.
Top Tournament Play
My top GPP play is Odell Beckham Jr. at $27.
In his first game back from injury, Beckham caught five of nine targets for 77 yards. He looked decent to me and even received an end-around, rushing for around seven yards.
If this Browns-Vikings game does end up going back and forth, then Beckham should be an integral part of the festivities. Double-digit plus targets are in the range of outcomes, and these should come at very low rostership.
Tight End
Top Play
My top play is Travis Kelce at $31. Is Kelce on the slate? Yes. Then he will always be my top play. His Floor/Ceiling Projections are so much higher than the No. 2 tight end. He’s essentially an elite wide receiver in the tight end pool. Sure, he’s expensive, but it’s money spent well. Despite the high price tag, the Player Model still has him with an 83% Bargain Rating.
Patrick Mahomes loves to target him. In the first three games this season, he’s gone 6-of-7 for 76 yards and two touchdowns, 7-of-8 for 109 yards and a touchdown, and 7-of-11 for 104 yards.
With defensive coordinators now keeping two safeties deep against the Chiefs, it’s been the run game and underneath throws that have been most effective. That just happens to be where Kelce thrives.
The Eagles are 18th in DVOA against tight ends this season, but they were 26th last season. Kelce should feast in this matchup.
Top Value
My top value play is Austin Hooper at $13. Shrug, I really like this game.
Hooper is not a target hog by any means, as he’s received three, five, and three to begin the season. He scored a touchdown last week, and I think there will be opportunities to score in this one as the game could be back and forth.
Beckham and Kareem Hunt will likely be the top options in the passing game, but the Vikings are 31st in DVOA against tight ends this season, so there’s more than a Lloyd Christmas chance of producing.
Top Tournament Play
My top GPP play is Kyle Pitts at $16. I think most people are sick of Pitts by now. He’s received eight, six, and three targets, hasn’t scored a touchdown, and the highest yardage total has been 73 yards. The Falcons offense looks like a mess.
This is the ideal tournament scenario for a player like Pitts. He’s still a talented player, and there’s a reason why he was the highest-drafted tight end in history. He’s still the number two option in the passing game. While Washington has been good against tight ends this season, their pass defense has been very porous (28th DVOA).
Defense
Top Play
My top play is the Buffalo Bills at $20. The Bills are implied to score 31.25 points and are favored by 15.5 points. The Texans are starting a rookie quarterback, on the road, in a game where the offense will be one-dimensional. There should be plenty of opportunities for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions in this one.
The Bills are ninth in pass rush and fifth in coverage, according to PFF.
I think this defense comes in low-owned due to the price, and most will likely go to Tennessee against the Jets.
Top Value
My top value is the Green Bay Packers at $10. Have you seen Ben Roethlisberger play recently? The Packers should score points to force the Steelers to pass.
This isn’t a smash spot by any means since the Packers are 20th in pass rush and 15th in coverage. That said, have you seen Ben Roethlisberger play recently? They are at the stone minimum of $10 and have a Bargain Rating of 98% in the Player Model.
Tournament Play
My top GPP play is the Kansas City Chiefs at $15. The weakness of the Chiefs defense is their rush defense. From what we’ve seen so far, the Eagles don’t have the willingness or patience to start it, let alone stick with it.
The Chiefs will likely score points in this one, as the Vegas Dashboard has them implied with the second-highest total on the slate at 30.5. That will force Jalen Hurts to be aggressive, which is when the Chiefs thrive. Some sacks and a pick-six aren’t out of the question. He threw one last week against the Cowboys.
