In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 4 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday evening):
- Travis Kelce (1st)
- George Kittle (3rd)
- Cole Kmet (19th)
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models and take a look at some other tight ends who could help you win a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
Travis Kelce ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (54.5 total)
What more is there to be said about Travis Kelce? Over the last five seasons, Zeus has been a dominant force, finishing as the top fantasy tight end four times (he was a disappointing No. 2 in 2016). That’s continued into this season, where he leads all tight ends in PPR points at 66.9 through three weeks. He’s fourth in points among all “flex” positions, the only tight end to crack the top 10.
Deciding on whether or not to roster Kelce when he’s on the main slate usually has nothing to do with Kelce himself. We know he leads the position in every projection. We know he’s the clear-cut best option. He’s also consistently the most expensive player at his position. This week, he’s even more expensive than any wide receiver on DraftKings.
What Kelce offers is a solid projection at a position frequently full of question marks. Even the other somewhat expensive tight ends are a big step down from him. This week, there’s no other tight end projected within 5.5 DraftKings points of Kelce. Each week, we need to decide if this edge is worth paying Kelce’s inflated salary for.
One overlooked factor in Kelce’s favor: He, and the rest of the Chiefs passing attack, have been better on the road since Patrick Mahomes took over, per our Trends tool:
Travis Kelce splits with Patrick Mahomes
Besides the boost to scoring, take note of the ownership discrepancy as well. With Kelce on the road, we get almost thrice the upside, at seven percent less ownership. This is crucial with Kelce since the rest of the field has surely caught on to how good of a play he is.
Kelce is the unanimous leader in all five of our Pro’s FanDuel Models this week, thanks to a 99% Bargain Rating. Just for good measure, he leads three of the DraftKings models too.
George Kittle ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Seattle Seahawks (52 total)
George Kittle might post Travis Kelce numbers if he played in an equally explosive offense. His 9.3 yards after the catch per reception leads all tight ends (minimum 10 catches). Unfortunately for Kittle, he doesn’t quite get the elite opportunity or downfield looks necessary to challenge Kelce for the position as fantasy’s best tight end.
His extremely shallow average depth of target (aDOT) is a catch-22. It leads to more catchable passes — Kittle has 15 catches on only 18 targets this year. It also limits his upside, as Kittle essentially has to produce all the yardage himself. A lack of red-zone opportunities further hampers him; he’s yet to see one this year.
With all of that out of the way, he’s still a great play. Seattle is 21st in DVOA against the position, so the matchup is friendly. The game also has a high total, and the 49ers are underdogs, so we can expect more overall passing this week. Kittle saw a season-high nine targets in last week’s loss to the Packers, so we can expect San Francisco to lean on Kittle when the situation calls for it.
Kittle is second across all of our projections this week but offers a significant discount from Kelce. If Kittle can keep the fantasy scoring close, the extra salary should be enough to beat out Kelce lineups. He’s a slightly better value on DraftKings, where he leads Chris Raybon’s Model.
Cole Kmet ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) Chicago Bears (-3) vs Detroit Lions (41.5 total)
The final tight end to top a Pro Model, in this case, CSURAM88 ‘s, is an interesting addition. Cole Kmet is a far cry from Kittle and Kelce, with a meager 7.11 Median Projection on DraftKings. Let’s figure out why he’s still popping in that model.
Kmet has regressed a bit after seeing seven targets in Week 1. Last week he only saw four, but that was good for 25% of Justin Field’s pass attempts. We all know how poorly that went for Fields and the Bears, including Kmet, who only caught one pass for 11 yards. This week could be a different story, though. I wrote in the quarterback breakdown why this matchup is much more favorable to Fields. It’s even more favorable to Kmet — the Lions are dead last in DVOA against tight ends.
Scheming quick targets to tight ends (and running backs) would also make sense for the Bears. Fields struggled to get through his reads in his debut, and getting some easier completions under his belt would do him good. The Bears might need to keep the passing up, though, since the Lions offense has been a pleasant surprise to start the season.
None of this means I expect Kmet to keep pace with the top handful of tight ends on the board. However, at only $3,000 in salary on DraftKings, he has a shot at being a better value. Kmet is DraftKings only this week; the minimum pricing on FanDuel is too high for punt plays like him.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
TJ Hockenson ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) Detroit Lions (+3) at Chicago bears (41.5 total)
I, like many others, was burned by Hockenson last week (three points, 25% DraftKings ownership). That kind of recency bias might keep him off a lot of rosters this week. Hockenson scored over 46 DraftKings points through the first two weeks of the season before his dud last week.
He’s been the lone bright spot of the Lions’ passing attack and should be a focal point this week. Hockenson is one of a handful of players with a ceiling as high as Kittle or Kelce (albeit a far lower chance of reaching that ceiling) and should come in at far less ownership. It’s not the easiest matchup, so this is a tournament-only play, but he’s worth consideration.
Kyle Pitts ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs Washington Football Team (48 total)
Tight end is a notoriously difficult position for rookies, but Pitts has the ability to get there at some point this year. We all know about his athletic talents, and he’s averaging almost six targets per game. He’s currently the 15th-best tight end in PPR points, which would be a pleasant surprise for any other rookie tight end.
Pitts has gotten there without finding the end zone yet, which is encouraging since we (should) know that touchdowns are high variance. He’s a better value on FanDuel, where his Pts/Sal trails only Kittle and Kelce.
Logan Thomas ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) Washington Football Team (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (48 total)
Opposite Pitts, and at a similar price range, is converted quarterback Logan Thomas. Thomas is quietly sixth in PPR scoring among tight ends. Washington has struggled to find a second option behind Terry McLaurin in the passing game, with Thomas being the only other player to top 100 receiving yards across three games.
I don’t expect that to change this week; the Falcons are 27th in DVOA vs. tight ends, so the matchup is a good one.
Mark Andrews ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) Baltimore Ravens(+1) at Denver Broncos (45 total)
With all of the shiny new toys at tight end, Andrews is flying under the radar. Used in only 6.1% of lineups last week, he paid off with 18.9 DraftKings points. The Ravens’ passing game is essentially only three players, Andrews, Sammy Watkins, and Marquise Brown.
They account for over 85% of Lamar Jackson’s targets. With Brown suffering from a bad case of the dropsies last week, the Ravens might be inclined to lean more heavily on the sure-handed Andrews in what is, on paper, a closer matchup this week.
Tyler Higbee ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs Arizona Cardinals (55 total)
Despite a one-catch, eight-yard performance in Week 2, Higbee is a top-12 fantasy tight end this year. He has a lot of target competition from the Rams’ talented wide receivers, but he’s made the most of his 12 chances this year, catching 11 of them.
This game has the highest total on the slate, which likely means more overall passing to go around. While it hasn’t been the case yet this year, Arizona was fairly well known as an extremely soft tight end matchup the past few seasons. They’ve revamped their defense, but it’s entirely possible the struggles were more due to scheme than talent. The best tight end the Cardinals have faced so far is Tyler Conklin, and it’s safe to say Higbee is a step up in competition.
