I started playing DFS on DraftStreet in 2013. For the next six years, I primarily played cash games because I was in love with the slow, methodical grind, along with the safety that comes from playing a format where you only have to beat one other person or roughly half the field if you’re in 50/50s or double-ups.
Nowadays, I’ve decided to pull the ripcord on the safety net so that I could seek out more upside.
The hardest part of switching to GPP only? Getting comfortable with losing … a lot more often. However, with proper game selection and bankroll management, all you need is one or two nice scores to be in the black when the season ends.
And when you’re mainly targeting small-field GPPs, your lineups don’t need to be as perfect compared to when you’re entering these larger fields. Personally, I consider a small field as a tournament with 500 or fewer people, but some DFS players may have a broader definition.
And typically, I am playing in tournaments with 300 or fewer people.
Anyway, each week I’ll be using our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools and the FantasyLabs Player Models to discuss my overall strategy for how I’m attacking these smaller fields.
General Strategy
My overall strategy for these formats is quite simple. I try to find the best spots to correlate and utilize the Leverage Scores in our Player Models to find pivots off of players who are projected for higher rostership.
A lot of the time, when looking for games to target, you land on high-total games because that’s where we’d expect the most points to be scored. Naturally, high-total games come with higher projected ownership on certain players. However, it’s still possible to have unique builds when targeting these games, and we can still insert other one-off plays to differentiate our lineups.
You don’t need a whole lineup of contrarian plays to win a small-field tournament, though it helps to pivot in the right spots. I also tend to rely on the Ceiling Projections instead of Median Projections when I am making my lineup decisions.
Also, keep in mind the projected ownership levels in the models are geared toward large-field GPPs, so there is some guesswork on estimating ownership projections for smaller fields.
Note: I play these small-field tournaments on DraftKings, so that’s what this analysis will focus on.
Games I’m Targeting
Eagles (24) vs. Chiefs (30.5)
Looking at the Vegas Dashboard, this game should be set up for plenty of points, given the 54.5 total, while the Chiefs have an excellent 30.5-point implied team total.
If I am running one team on Sunday, I lean towards the Patrick Mahomes side for my stack. While writing this Saturday morning, Mahomes is projected for slightly lower ownership than Jalen Hurts, giving Mahomes one of the higher Leverage Scores on the slate among quarterbacks. Mahomes leads the slate in Ceiling Projections, narrowly beating out Josh Allen.
Given opposing quarterbacks are correlated (per our Correlation Dashboard) to each other, using Hurts in one of your other three-entry teams also makes sense if you want to correlate two of your entries. I’d lean Jalen Regor as the stacking option since he’s $1,000 cheaper and has a comparable Ceiling Projection in our models. Although, both receivers stand out in our Leverage Scores.
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is that you can apply different weights to our NFL projections from some of our partners (may require separate purchase) to create an aggregate set to your specifications (you can also upload your own):
When I make my preferred inputs, Tyreek Hill leads all receivers in Ceiling Projections.
Hill has my interest as the best leverage play in this game and maybe the entire slate. Hill is coming off a down game, and people are discussing him being hurt, but he’s been practicing in full with a rib injury. Hill’s $8,000 price makes him a perfect pivot off Davante Adams ($7,900) and Cooper Kupp ($7,800). Adams and Kupp both have double the projected ownership of Tyreek.
These are the exact spots we should be looking for in tournaments. I’ve said this before, but rostering Hill when he’s not expected to be highly rostered is my favorite time to use him.
Cardinals (24.75) vs. Rams (29.25)
Given the strength of the Rams’ secondary, I like an unconventional stack of Kyler Murray + Chase Edmonds with how correlated they are:
If the Cardinals get behind, which could easily happen, this should be a spot where Edmonds gets more run than James Conner. Edmonds’ 15.7 toucher per game is solid, and he’s third on the team with a 17% target share. The overall usage is encouraging for a running back in his price range.
This stack will certainly give you a unique build relative to the field and could potentially give us access to 100% of the Cards’ touchdowns if Conner stays out of the end zone.
Matthew Stafford is stackable as the Rams have the third-highest total on the slate. Kupp and Woods are the obvious pairings as they’re combining for 55% of the Rams’ target share. That said, if you don’t want to roster Kupp’s high rostership, Woods + Tyler Higbee or just Higbee would be a way to be unique in this stack. Higbee currently has a 91% Leverage Rating.
Browns (27.25) vs. Vikings (25.25)
The Browns-Vikings game has the third-highest total on the slate, but nearly every single piece in this game appears to be going wildly overlooked. Odell Beckham seems to be the one exception to this as he is projected for some moderate ownership. However, with a high Buzz Score and Sentiment Rating in our Player Models, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him check in with higher rostership than his current projection. I believe that to be especially true at the higher-stakes tournaments.
Baker Mayfield in this spot is intriguing. While his ceiling can be capped by the Browns’ propensity to run, he still has the ninth-highest Ceiling Projection with my preferred inputs in my Player Model. Additionally, Mayfield is fourth in the league with 9.8 yards per attempt (YPA). The Vikings have been atrocious vs. the pass, ranking 24th in pass DVOA. Pro Football Focus also ranks them with the 23rd-ranked pass-rush, so Mayfield should have a clean pocket to operate from.
With Mayfield’s cheap price, it allows for a little more flexibility. I don’t mind the double bring-back with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. This gives you access to Kirk Cousins, who is PFF’s No. 3 quarterback thus far. Jefferson and Thielen combine for 49% of the Vikings’ target share, and they’ve caught five of Cousins’ eight passing touchdowns.
Thielen and Jefferson currently offer a ton of leverage, boasting Leverage Ratings of 97% and 98%.
One-Off Plays
Alvin Kamara seems like the perfect pivot off Derrick Henry. Henry is currently projected to be the highest-rostered running back, while Kamara should be a bit less rostered. Kamara’s 20.7 touches per game rank fifth in the league, and he has a strong Leverage Score despite the moderate rostership.
Antonio Gibson doesn’t have the best Leverage Score, but I still like this spot for him against the Falcons No. 24 defense in rush DVOA. Gibson’s 17 touches per game are 13th in the league, and his 10% target share is tied with teammate J.D. McKissic. Gibson boats a higher Ceiling Projection than Chuba Hubbard, who seems to be garnering more industry chatter than Gibson.
Rostering Jonathan Taylor didn’t work out last week, but this may be a better spot for him as the spread is much closer vs. the Dolphins. His 16.7 touches per game are tied for 15th in the league, and his Leverage Score is standing out among running backs in this price range. Taylor is priced within $500 of D’Andre Swift, Hubbard, and David Montgomery.
I can’t imagine many people will target Zack Moss as he and Devin Singletary are seeing near-equal usage at 13.0 and 13.7 touches per game. That said, Moss has eight touches inside the 10-yard line — Singletary has just four — Moss didn’t even play in Week 1.
Despite the tough matchup, it’s hard to ignore Brandin Cooks’s usage. He has a massive 37.5% target share and has a good Leverage Score in our Player Models. Targeting players in a difficult matchup with high usage is typically a good spot to go contrarian. Cooks + Moss make for an interesting mini correlation.
The 49ers are implied for 27 points vs. the Seahawks, and Deebo Samuel has a whopping 39% target share and 38.5% air yards share. This should be a great spot for him against a Seattle defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA. Deebo has the eighth-highest Ceiling Projection in my model and an 82% Leverage Rating.
By now, people are over rostering Kyle Pitts. However, he has one of the highest Leverage Scores in my model, and he makes for a nice mini correlation with Gibson. Pitts is still seeing 5.7 targets per game, but the yardage and touchdowns haven’t been there yet.
Other Viable One-Off Plays with Positive Leverage Scores
- Miles Sanders
- Nick Chubb
- DK Metcalf
- Michael Pittman
- Calvin Ridley
- Terry McLaurin
- TJ Hockenson
- Logan Thomas
If you’re struggling to get a feel for the slate, we also have some optimizer templates in our Lineup Builder that you can use to see where the raw projections are leaning for stacks:
