In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are quite a few running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 4 Fantasy Rankings (as of Thursday):
- Derrick Henry (1st)
- Najee Harris (4th)
- Aaron Jones (7th)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (19th)
- Miles Sanders (22nd)
We’ll discuss why these running backs are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
Derrick Henry ($8,800 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) Tennessee Titans (-6.5) at New York Jets (45 total)
It’s officially big dog season already. Henry erupted for over 50 DraftKings points in Week 2, then followed it up with a solid 22.4-point performance last week, even without adding a touchdown. Scores in the low 20s obviously aren’t enough at Henry’s current salary to help you win tournaments, but you’ll take it if that’s his floor.
The problem with playing Henry on DraftKings historically has been his lack of pass-game involvement. Last year he got 31 receptions — less than two per game— which was a career-high. The Titans are (wisely) involving him more this season. He has 13 targets through three games.
Of course, the game script couldn’t be better for Henry this week. As a six-point or more favorite, Henry has dominated the past two-plus seasons:
Note: not only does our Trends tool show you historic performances, but it also includes all the players who currently meet a given criteria for the upcoming week.
For a couple of seasons, the Jets were a fairly solid run defense that was easy to attack through the air. This year though, they’re only 13th against the run. When you couple inflated expectations of defensive quality with a huge volume of running plays faced, you get a very solid +2.7 Opponents Plus/Minus score.
All of this makes Henry the strongest running back on the board, especially on DraftKings, where his price is more in line with other top running backs. On FanDuel, he’s $1,200 more expensive than anyone else. Either way, if he has one of his trademark 40 or 50 point games, you’ll need him on both sites.
Henry leads three of our Pro’s Models on DraftKings.
Najee Harris ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) at Green Bay Packers (45.5 total)
The Steelers seem to be facing the facts — their offensive line isn’t good enough for a productive run game. Fortunately, rather than wasting Harris’s talents, they’re getting him the ball through the air. Harris’s targets have increased each week this season, with a ridiculous 19 in Week 3 against the Bengals. I don’t think we can project him (or anybody else for that matter) for that kind of volume on a weekly basis, but he should still see some work.
The Steelers are already second in the league in pass-play percentage, at 73.4%. This week in particular, with the Steelers as touchdown underdogs, it sets up well for passing volume.
The Packers defense isn’t one to be feared either. They’re 25th in DVOA against both the pass and the rush, which could improve Najee’s efficiency. Harris getting even moderate efficiency from his touches would be huge:
Running backs with 70%+ snaps in Week 3 (PFF)
Najee Harris 95%
Saquon Barkley 84%
Alvin Kamara 84%
David Montgomery 81%
Austin Ekeler 75%
Joe Mixon 74%
Sony Michel 73%
Aaron Jones 73%
Derrick Henry 72%60-69 club: Mattison, Zeke, Sermon/Juszczyk, Edmonds, Sanders, CEH
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 28, 2021
With all of that in his favor, it’s no wonder Harris is popping in our models. His Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal both lead all backs on DraftKings. I’d suggest using Harris exclusively there, as his target share is less valuable on half-PPR FanDuel. Harris leads the Sean Koerner model on DraftKings.
Aaron Jones ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
On the other side of the ball in Green Bay, we have Aaron Jones. Jones leads two of our Pro’s Models on FanDuel, where he’s grossly underpriced.
Since the weird implosion in Week 1, Jones and the Packers offense has been clicking. They’ve scored 65 points combined over the last two games, largely thanks to five touchdowns from Jones. While his workload has never been truly elite, his 18 carries and four targets per game in that span are solid.
Against the Steelers, I expect Jones to see the higher end of his range of opportunities. With the Packers expected to control this game easily, they’re likely to keep the ball on the ground through most of it. The Steelers defense is solid, but Jones can get there on touches alone.
The value on Jones is simply too good to pass up on FanDuel. He had a 98% Bargain Rating and leads all backs with 2.2 Pts/Sal.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (54.5 total)
CEH was a value pick last week, and he paid off for anyone who rostered him. After a costly fumble, I had my concerns about his role, but he rushed a season-high 17 times for 100 yards. This was especially encouraging given the game flow as the Chiefs trailed for most of the game.
This week, his price still hasn’t budged much on DraftKings. While the Eagles have a slightly better rush defense than last week’s opponent, the Chargers, the Chiefs should be able to run the ball more this week. Fantasy football is a game of volume, so I’m expecting even more from Edwards-Helaire this time.
Positive game scripts will be important for CEH this year. The Chiefs don’t seem interested in making him a part of their passing attack; he’s seen only five targets through three games. That means the rushing volume will need to be there, which is more likely in games the Chiefs control.
Edwards-Helaire is too expensive to be considered a strong play on FanDuel. On DraftKings, however, he’s fourth in Projected Plus/Minus and leads the CSURAM88 Model.
Miles Sanders ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) Philadelphia Eagles (+7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (54.5 total)
Sanders saw an uncharacteristically low two targets in Week 3. It wasn’t like he was benched; backup Kenneth Gainwell only carried the ball once. It was just that the Eagles struggled to keep up with the Cowboys, running only 12 times total, most of them scrambles from Jalen Hurts.
This week against the Chiefs, the game script looks fairly similar. However, our Projections think that Sanders should get a reasonable 11 carries this week. He’s added solid pass-game work into the equation this year as well, coming in at almost four targets per game.
The bet on Sander’s this week is one on efficiency, though. The Chiefs rank dead last in DVOA against both the pass and the rush, so Sanders has a shot at getting it done on a moderate workload.
It’s a scary thought rostering a back coming off a (healthy) five touch game, but Sanders is a solid value on FanDuel. He leads the Bales Model there. His sub-6% ownership projection as of Friday afternoon is especially appealing and worth monitoring as we get closer to lock.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside.
Alvin Kamara ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. New York Giants (41.5 total)
Kamara provides valuable leverage off Derrick Henry lineups; it’s hard to fit both backs in at their current salary. Especially on FanDuel, where Kamara is $1,200 cheaper. Kamara has seen 20 or more carries in each of the Saints’ wins this season. They’re committed to keeping the ball out of Jameis Winston’s hands when possible. With the Saints as seven-point favorites, we should see a lot of Kamara this week. Kamara projects better than every back other than Henry this and should come in at slightly reduced rostership.
D’Andre Swift ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Chicago Bears (41.5 total)
Swift is a strong play on DraftKings. He’s much cheaper, and his heavy pass-game involvement plays better with full PPR scoring. Swift trails only Harris in running back targets this year and has added an additional 11 carries per game. Beat reporters are expecting even more Swift this week against the Bears, which is worth keeping an eye on.
Since Swift is facing a Bears defense that ranks 17th against the run, it could be a big week for Swift.
Saquon Barkley ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) New York Giants (+7) at New Orleans Saints (41.5 total)
The Saints defense is enough to scare many off Barkley this week. However, Saquon has seen an increase in both carries and targets each week so far. I expect that trend to continue as he inches back to full health. The matchup and game script are both suboptimal, but Saquon has the explosive ability to get it done in any situation. Look to play Barkley on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
Chuba Hubbard ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) Carolina Panthers (+4) at Dallas Cowboys (51.5 total)
With Christian McCaffrey out, Hubbard steps into one of the highest value roles in fantasy. He saw 11 carries and five targets in just under three quarters without CMC last week, although Royce Freeman occasionally spelled him. This week against the Cowboys is a great matchup, with Dallas ranking 25th in adjusted line yards.
If Carolina’s strong defense can get the Cowboys off the field, we should see a lot of Chuba this week. He’s in play on both sites — the value is stronger on FanDuel, but his pass game role is better on DraftKings.
