The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Jayden Daniels ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
It has taken Daniels little time to make an impact at the NFL level. He’s the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy scoring through the first three weeks, surpassing even the loftiest expectations for the start of his rookie season. He has at least 28.06 DraftKings points in two of his first three games, and he’s propelled the Commanders to one of the top offenses in football.
Washington hasn’t been forced to punt in back-to-back games. That’s ridiculous. Their only possessions that haven’t generated points were kneel-downs. They didn’t manage to get into the end zone in Week 2 vs. the Giants, but they rectified that with 38 points against the Bengals.
The Commanders offense is in another brilliant spot in Week 4. They’re taking on the Cardinals in the game with the highest total of the week. In fact, their total of 50.5 points eclipses the second-highest game on the main slate by three full points. The Cardinals have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season, so Daniels is poised for another big performance.
Daniels’ skillset is also perfectly suited for fantasy football. He’s been one of the most active runners in the league, averaging 12.7 carries per game, and he’s found the end zone three times. When combined with his passing numbers – he leads the league with an 80.3% completion percentage and zero interceptions – it’s almost like he was created in a lab to score fantasy points.
Daniels remains priced at a discount relative to his peers, checking in as the sixth-most expensive QB on the DraftKings main slate. His Bargain Rating is tied for the second-best mark at the position, so he’s an elite choice for all formats.
C.J. Stroud ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
While Daniels is the clear top choice on DraftKings, things aren’t quite as simple on FanDuel. Daniels has been priced all the way up to $8,200, so he’s not as good of a value. He still ranks second in projected Plus/Minus, but Stroud is able to sneak past him for the top spot.
Stroud has yet to put together a big game in his second year, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his first three outings. That includes just 11.8 FanDuel points last week vs. the Vikings.
However, Stroud draws a much stronger matchup this week vs. the Jaguars. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and they’re 30th in pass defense EPA. The Texans are also implied for 26 points, which is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate.
Stroud stands out as an elite buy-low target at just $7,800, resulting in a slate-high 81% Bargain Rating.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Joe Burrow ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
The Bengals are desperate to get on the board for their first win of the season. They should be able to get the job done vs. the Panthers – they’re listed as four-point road favorites – but they were favored against the Patriots and Commanders too.
Still, it’s hard to blame Burrow and the offense for last week’s loss. They put up 33 points, with Burrow racking up 324 passing yards and three touchdowns. He finished with 28.36 DraftKings points in his best performance of the year, which just so happened to coincide with his first game with Tee Higgins back in the lineup.
Now that the Bengals offense is back at full strength, the strong production should keep rolling. Burrow has the potential for another big outing vs. the Panthers, who are 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. The Bengals are implied for 26 points in this matchup, and Burrow has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.28 with an implied team total of at least 25.0 (per the Trends tool).
Kyler Murray ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
The top implied team total of the week belongs to the Cardinals, who are listed as 3.5-point favorites vs. the Commanders. As good as Washington has been on offense, their defense has been that poor: They’re dead-last in EPA per play defensively by a wide margin. That combination is going to create a lot of really good, high-scoring matchups to target for fantasy purposes.
The Cardinals are cut from a similar cloth. Their offense has been a top-10 unit since Murray returned to the lineup last season, while their defense has struggled. In other words, both of these teams can score points and allow points in bunches.
Murray hasn’t been quite as impactful as Daniels as a runner – he’s averaged five carries and just over 50 yards per game – but he makes up for it with his arm. He already has a game with 266 passing yards and three touchdowns this season, giving him one of the top ceilings at the position.
In this matchup vs. the Commanders – who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QBs through three weeks – he has the potential for a monster showing.
Jalen Hurts ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Hurts was the No. 2 QB in fantasy scoring last season, with his average of 21.9 points per game trailing only Josh Allen. Unfortunately, Hurts has been unable to replicate that production so far this year. He’s down to 18.4 points per game, making him the eighth-best QB in fantasy. Hurts could be without his top two pass-catchers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, so it’s a week where he could fly a bit under the radar.
That said, Hurts still has tons of natural ability, and he might be forced to use his legs more without his top receivers. That’s a good thing for fantasy purposes. Dallas Goedert also proved up to handling the load last week, finishing with 170 receiving yards.
The matchup for Hurts is also a good one. The Buccaneers have an exploitable defense, and they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. Daniels lit them up for more than 28 DraftKings points in Week 1, albeit with most of that production coming in garbage time.
Ultimately, Hurts has the second-highest ceiling projection in our Models, and he has the third-highest optimal rate on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings.
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Andy Dalton ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
The Red Rifle is officially back. He took over the Panthers’ starting QB job from the abysmal Bryce Young in Week 3, and he immediately produced the best performance the Panthers have seen at QB in ages: 319 yards, three passing touchdowns, 27.56 DraftKings points.
Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that Dalton did that vs. the Raiders, which isn’t exactly the strongest competition he’ll face all year. However, he draws another favorable matchup in Week 4 vs. the Bengals.
Cincinnati has been shredded defensively all season, and they’re merely 29th in pass defense EPA. That game has the second-highest total of the week, and while the Panthers are underdogs, the line is moving in their favor. It’s possible that they can keep this game closer than expected, and if that happens, Dalton could be looking at another strong fantasy performance.
Dalton is particularly useful at $5,300 on DraftKings, where he’s one of the cheapest QBs on the entire slate. He’s projected for just 5% ownership, but he has a slightly higher optimal rate in SimLabs.
Brock Purdy ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
It was no weapons, no problem for Purdy in Week 3. He was playing without Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, but he was still able to put up the kind of production we’ve come to expect from Purdy. He finished 26.78 DraftKings points on 292 yards and three touchdowns, and he even added 10 carries and 41 yards on the ground.
Purdy’s matchup will be slightly tougher this week, but he could get George Kittle back in the lineup. The Patriots were also picked apart by Aaron Rodgers in Week 3, so they’re clearly not unbeatable. The 49ers’ implied team total of 25.5 is the fourth-highest on the main slate, and Purdy stands out as undervalued across the industry.
Lamar Jackson ($8,900 FanDuel)
If you’re going to play one of the Sunday Night Football quarterbacks – who are both available on the FanDuel main slate – Jackson gets the clear nod. He’s available at a slight discount compared to Allen, but he’s showing up nearly three times more frequently in the SimLabs optimal lineups.
Jackson has scored at least 17.38 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he’s gone for at least 25.98 in two of them. He’s been as good as ever on the ground, averaging a career-best 7.3 yards per attempt and 84.7 yards per game so far this season. He carried the ball 16 times against the Chiefs in Week 1, and he had 14 attempts last week vs. the Cowboys. The Ravens are not afraid to let him tote the rock in marquee matchups, and this week’s showdown vs. the Bills certainly suffices.
