In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 4 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Josh Allen (1st)
- Jalen Hurts (3rd)
- Matt Ryan (19th)
- Justin Fields (17th)
We’ll discuss why these seven are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) Buffalo Bills (-15.5) vs. Houston Texans (48 total)
Allen is a near-unanimous choice in our Pro’s FanDuel Models, leading four of the five. This seems to be for a good reason, as he leads all quarterbacks in Median, Ceiling, and Floor Projections. Matched up with the hapless Texans, this looks to be a great spot for Allen.
There’s been some mild early concern about Allen’s rushing role, which provides a large part of his ceiling. After scoring at least eight rushing touchdowns in each of his first three seasons, he has only one so far in 2021. However, the underlying usage is still there. His six carries per game are just under the 6.4 he averaged last season. He’s also averaging three red-zone carries per game, so the touchdowns will come eventually.
Adding the still-productive Emmanuel Sanders has helped him on the passing front. Sanders is a true deep-threat even at age 34, averaging over 17 yards per catch. With Stefon Diggs still in the mix, Allen has had the most explosive weaponry in his young career.
Normally, fantasy players have concerns with quarterbacks in an expected blowout. It makes sense — if the Bills get up early, they won’t need to pass as much. However, what’s the likeliest way they get out to a big lead? That’s right, through Josh Allen production. Since 2019, quarterbacks favored by at least 10 points have done just fine:
(The $5,100 salary minimum set to weed out three Taysom Hill games from the past result sections)
The upside of these players is somewhat limited, however. With two games each from Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson being the only 35+ point outputs in that sample. This means Allen is a better cash game play this week since he could have difficulty hitting his ceiling.
The counterpoint to the above (yes, I’m arguing with myself): If this week ends up with lower scores needed to win than usual, Allen could still get you there. Also, Allen’s rostership may be depressed as DFS players could opt to look for closer games, making him an intriguing GPP target.
And if the Texans somehow keep this game close? Allen’s ceiling is certainly in play. It’s the NFL — weird things happen.
Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs (54.5 total)
Hurts is the leader in three of our DraftKings Models and one FanDuel Pro Model. He is the inverse of the Allen play. As large underdogs against an explosive offense, Hurts will likely need to throw (or at least drop back) early and often this weekend. I wrote last week how the Chiefs frequently create big fantasy scores for opposing quarterbacks. Justin Herbert proved that theory with a four-touchdown, 30-point fantasy performance.
This week it’s Jalen Hurts’s turn. Hurts showed us in Week 3’s blowout loss to the Cowboys how valuable of a fantasy asset he can be while playing bad real-life football. With the Eagles down early, he ended up attempting 39 passes while running the ball nine times. It’s hard to fail with that kind of volume.
The Chiefs might also be a worse defense than the Cowboys. They’ve allowed each of their opponents to score at least 29 points, and Vegas gives this game the highest total on the slate. It will be hard for the Eagles to put up many points without Hurts being heavily involved.
The Chiefs also have the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed on DraftKings this week. Since that metric reflects points compared to pricing, it shows that DraftKings hasn’t really caught on to the “quarterbacks against the Chiefs” effect.
But we have, so fire up Hurts this weekend.
Matt Ryan ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs Washington Football Team (48 total)
The Falcons are taking on the Football Team on Sunday. Surprisingly, Washington has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed on both sites this weekend. With their fearsome pass-rush, how could this be? We need to remember, this metric looks at how players at a position have done against a team in the past year, adjusted for salary. So it seems to be the case that both fantasy sites are over-weighting the strength of this defense in their quarterback pricing.
Back to Matt Ryan, who leads the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings. He’s struggled so far this season, throwing for a career-low 6.0 yards-per-attempt, despite having Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley. He’s also almost as cheap as he’s ever been on DraftKings.
He was $5,200 once in 2015. I was able to look this up quickly and easily using our Trends tool as discussed here.
If you think Ryan has anything left in the tank, this is the buy-low opportunity we need. It’s a great matchup on paper, and he has the weapons to get it done. He’s far too risky for cash games (7.3-point Floor Projection), but tournaments are a different story. With his recent poor play, expect rostership on him to be low.
Ryan checks in with our second-best Pts/Sal on DraftKings.
Justin Fields ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) Chicago Bears (-3) vs Detroit Lions (42.5 total)
While we’re on the topic of buy-low quarterbacks, let’s talk about Justin Fields. Fields leads Sean Koerner’s DraftKings model this week.
After taking more sacks (nine) than completing passes (six) in his NFL debut, things only can go up for Fields. With a significantly easier matchup against the Lions, this might be the week that it does. While the Lions’ pass-rush has been surprisingly competent (sacking Lamar Jackson four times last week), they aren’t the Browns.
Fields could have the highest Pts/Sal on the slate across both sites if he’s the starter. The Lions’ depleted secondary will struggle with Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney. He should be able to flash some of his vaunted rushing ability this week too.
Fields is a scary choice given his first performance, but he projects extremely well. Those with the courage to look his way again could be handsomely rewarded this week.
Be sure to monitor the news this week as the Bears stated they’re open to other options.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (54.5 total)
Mahomes needs to be in tournament consideration every single week. He’s second only to Josh Allen in Median and Ceiling Projections on both sites for Week 4. For their matchup against the Eagles, the Chiefs have a 31-point implied total that trails only the Bills. Mahomes has also been slightly better on the road in his career:
Home/Road splits for Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes is a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel, where he’s fourth in our Pts/Sal but 14th on DraftKings.
Kyler Murray ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Los Angeles Rams (54 Total)
Murray also needs to be in weekly consideration as a top quarterback play. He had a disappointing Week 3 by many standards and still scored 22.5 DraftKings points. With the Cardinals’ explosive weaponry and Kyler’s rushing upside, the sky is the limit on a weekly basis.
The Rams have been tricky for opposing quarterbacks so far, but Kyler is a different breed than the immobile quarterbacks they’ve faced so far (Tom Brady, injured Carson Wentz, and Andy Dalton). With this game having the second-highest total on the slate, a shootout is likely.
If you’re building around Kyler, I’d want to include some of the Rams’ passing attack (mainly Cooper Kupp) with him since Kyler going off likely means the Rams need to keep throwing too.
Matthew Stafford ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs Arizona Cardinals (54 total)
While I prefer Murray here, a big game from Kyler likely means a lot of Stafford throws. Stafford threw 30 passing attempts or less in Weeks 1 and 2 before a 38 attempt performance against the Bucs last week. The Rams had a 31-14 lead late in the third quarter, which allowed the running game to take over in LA, or it could’ve been a lot more attempts. If we see a similar game script this week, Stafford could break 40 passing attempts. Stafford’s YPA of 10.0 is second best in the league, so the efficiency is there in a big way. If the volume comes too, look out.
Kirk Cousins ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) Minnesota Vikings (+2) at Cleveland Browns (52.5 total)
Cousins is surprisingly fourth among main-slate quarterbacks in points-per-game so far this season. He’s been the model of consistency, scoring 25 points in each of his first three games. If he can get there again, at his current salary, that would be a 3.9 Pts/Sal score that easily tops our current projections. While the Browns are a tough matchup, Vegas is expecting the Vikings to keep pace offensively based on the lines.
Be sure to monitor the health of Vikings running back Dalvin Cook in our news tool. Cousins had his best game so far this year with Cook out.
Daniel Jones ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) New York Giants(+7.5) at New Orleans Saints (43.5 total)
Jones has been terrible as a passer so far this year. However, he trails only Lamar Jackson in quarterback rushing yards. Jones averaged 12.0 fantasy points with his legs the first two weeks of the season before being held to only 3.9 last week.
What could be going on here is strong opposing pass rushes forcing Jones to scramble, leading to his big runs. His first two opponents (Denver and Washington) were ranked inside PFF’s top 10 for defensive lines heading into the season.
His Week 3 opponent? The Falcons ranked 31st. This week, they draw the New Orleans Saints (eighth). Jones isn’t a super strong play, but he’s one big run away from hitting value at his price.
