In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two wide receivers near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Justin Jefferson
- Jayden Reed
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (54 total)
Justin Jefferson has come out scorching hot, catching nine of 12 targets for 150 yards in Week 1 and 11 of 13 targets for 159 yards in Week 2.
He’s running a route on 100% of the dropbacks, seeing a 29% target share and a 42% share of team air yards. He’s also seeing an elite 27% first-read target per route run. We’ve also watched this Chargers defense get shredded in recent weeks.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle scorched them in Week 1, which isn’t unusual. However, the Tennessee receiving corps caught 11 of 13 targets for 190 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. This Los Angeles defense has a lot of big names, but they might just not be good. Justin Jefferson is a strong play every week, but now he’s in an amazing game environment at home in the dome.
He’s the top receiver in our Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Jayden Reed ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (42.5 total)
Christian Watson being out has hurt the Packers offense, but the emergence of Jayden Reed has been needed. He’s run a route on two-thirds of the dropbacks, seeing a 22% target share and 26% share of team air yards. He’s also seen a first-read target on 24% of his routes, which is up with some of the elite receivers in the league.
If Watson were to return this week, it would severely hurt Reed’s outlook. However, I’m currently expecting Watson to miss this contest. The Packers haven’t been a high-volume passing offense to start the year, but Reed is extremely cheap and clearly a big piece of the passing game.
He’s the top option in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Keenan Allen ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings (54 total)
The addition of Kellen Moore has done wonders for Keenan Allen, who is being used similarly to how CeeDee Lamb was used in Moore’s offense. He caught six of nine targets for 76 yards in Week 1 while catching eight of 10 for 111 yards and two touchdowns this past week.
He’s been utilized more downfield this year, with 16% of his routes coming 20 or more yards downfield compared to just 7.5% last year. The Vikings are deploying almost exclusively zone coverage, which is good news for Allen.
With Justin Herbert under center, Allen has been targeted on a team-high 23.9% of his routes against zone coverage.
He also ranked in the top 15 in yards per route run against zone coverage in 2022.
Mike Williams ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings (54 total)
Tennessee ran a lot of zone coverage last week, but Mike Williams still saw a healthy workload. Historically, he’s been way better against man coverage. In his career, he’s been targeted on just 18.1% of his routes against zone coverage, as opposed to 25.7% against man. However, he was targeted on 32% of his routes against zone coverage this past week.
Who knows if Williams’ usage last week against zone coverage is sustainable? However, he’s certainly underpriced for his current usage.
He saw 13 targets last week, catching eight balls for 83 yards.
Josh Reynolds ($4,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (46.5 total)
Josh Reynolds looks like a strong value play regardless of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s status. However, Brown is currently questionable for Sunday’s matchup. He practiced in full Friday, and I honestly hope he plays so it keeps Reynolds’ ownership in check.
Reynolds has run a route on 82% of team dropbacks, seeing a 19% target share and a 32% share of team air yards. He’s also seeing a modest 15% first-read target rate per route run. In his 11 games over the past two seasons with a 60% of more route participation, he’s posted 23.6, 21.1, 16.1, 15.6, and 15.2 fantasy points in five of eleven games. He looks like a solid salary-saver this weekend.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick(s)
Tyreek Hill ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-6.5) vs. Denver Broncos (48 total)
Tyreek Hill has a monstrous role with Miami. He leads the NFL with 3.86 yards per route run.
His outlook could be even improved this week, with Jaylen Waddle currently questionable with a concussion. With Waddle off the field since the start of last season, Hill has run 95 routes. He’s seen a 43.2% target rate per route run, which is a 33% team target share. He’s also averaged 4.40 yards per route run with four touchdowns.
This matchup is also far easier than you would think. Denver shut down opposing receivers in 2022, but they’ve gotten gouged to start this season. They’ve allowed the second-highest completion rate and the eighth-highest touchdown rate to receivers.
I like Hill as a pivot off of Justin Jefferson, who’s going to soak up a ton of ownership this weekend.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) at Baltimore Ravens (44)
Gardner Minshew is under center for Indianapolis, which may actually be an upgrade for Michael Pittman Jr. Minshew can sling it, and Pittman is undoubtedly the top target here. He’s run a route on 98% of team dropbacks, with a 32% target share and 37% share of team air yards on the year. He’s also seen a 20% first-read target rate, which is a healthy number.
He’s also priced right near Mike Williams, who will be one of if not the highest-owned receiver on the weekend. Pittman also is a nice piece of secondary stacks with Ravens’ pass catchers or even as a bringback in Lamar Jackson stacks.
I think Pittman is going to go overlooked this weekend and makes for a strong tournament option.
Nico Collins ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+8.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (44.5)
I’m going back to the well with Nico Collins, who had a monstrous performance last week. He saw nine targets, catching seven balls for 146 yards and a touchdown en route to 30.6 DraftKings points. He’s seen a 23% target share on the year, including a hefty 22% first read target rate. The Texans have also had to drop back a ton in both games, and that might be the story again as they are 8.5-point underdogs.
I don’t think Nico Collins is priced correctly for his role, and it looks like his ownership is going to stay pretty low this weekend.
I’m going right back to Nico Collins in tournaments.
