In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 3 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Tyreek Hill (2nd)
- Cooper Kupp (3rd)
- DK Metcalf (9th)
- Robert Woods (18th)
- Van Jefferson (58th)
We’ll discuss why these seven are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (55.5 total)
Much like his quarterback, there are not really any weeks where Tyreek Hill shouldn’t be in GPP consideration. His ceiling is so high on a weekly basis I used him as an example in a piece on using Ceiling Projections. This week, he’s the top receiver in our season-long rankings and has the highest projection across the board.
The decision on whether to roster Hill usually comes down to how he fits within the rest of the slate. How does his ownership project? Is there enough value elsewhere that you can fit him in with Mahomes? Of course, those two factors are negatively correlated, so Hill might be even more +EV when he’s harder to afford.
This week is as good of a situation as any for Hill. The Chiefs Vegas team total (31) is the highest on the slate. They seem to have (wisely) de-emphasized the running game this year, so most of those points should come through the air. When they do, they generally go Tyreek’s way. His 38.9% share of his team’s touchdowns in the last calendar year trails only Adam Thielen, AJ Brown, and (shockingly) Tim Patrick among player’s who were active last season.
Tyreek is a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. Additionally, his yardage and touchdown-dependent scoring plays better over there. His target and reception counts (crucial on full PPR DraftKings) are lower than other players priced just below him.
Cooper Kupp ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56 total)
Kupp is a no-brainer play this week, especially on DraftKings, where he leads four of our Pro Models (and one additional FanDuel Model). The Rams are in a great situation, with the week’s highest game total for their matchup with Tampa Bay. Kupp is a very obvious value on DraftKings, specifically. He’s the No. 2 receiver in our weekly projections but only the 10th most expensive player there.
It’s scary to think about fading Kupp this week. He’s already averaging an absurd 33.3 DraftKings points per game, with the Rams yet to top 30 pass attempts in a game. This week, we could see Stafford drop back upwards of 50 times against a Bucs team that’s faced a league-leading 52 opponent passes per game thus far. The word is out on how to move the ball against Tampa, and intelligent teams realize they have to throw it.
If Kupp can stay anywhere near his insane efficiency, he’s a smash play at his salary. He has the slate’s best Projected Plus/Minus on Draftkings, regardless of position. He’s the fifth most expensive wideout on FanDuel, but that’s still a great value.
I’m loading up on Kupp this week.
DK Metcalf ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) Seattle Seahawks (-2) at Minnesota Vikings (56 total)
Metcalf is absurdly cheap on FanDuel, where he leads two of our Pro Models. The Seahawks-Vikings game is tied with the Buccaneers-Rams for the highest total on the slate.
It seems like almost every week, one of Metcalf or Tyler Lockett ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) ends up posting one of the highest receiver scores on the slate. So far this year, it’s been Lockett, who has logged scores of 29 and 34.8 DraftKings points. Metcalf has disappointed, with a high score of 16 so far.
Unless you have some reason to think that Metcalf has regressed this year, that means it’s a good time to “buy low” on him. Besides the fantastic game environment, he’s cheaper than Lockett on both sites, with a greater discrepancy on FanDuel. I’ve never been able to accurately predict which Seahawk wideout will have the big game this week.
This leads to two reasonable options: play them both (either separately or in the same lineup) or take your shot at the better value.
I’m not a fan of playing them both together; their scores are very negatively correlated:
(DraftKings points scored by DK Metcalf (X-axis) and Tyler Lockett (Y-axis) since the start of 2020
The graph above is from last season and the start of 2021. In that time, they’ve both topped 20 points in a week only once.
To bring it together, we want exposure to a Seattle-wideout this (and almost every) week. If you have a system of figuring out who the better play is, go for it, but I’ll be rolling with the better value in Metcalf for Week 3.
Robert Woods ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56 total)
This week it’s a Rams-centric wide receiver breakdown with Robert Woods joining Kupp in the FanDuel Model leaderboard. We’ve already gone over the reasons why the Rams passing attack is a spot to bet on. Let’s talk about Woods specifically.
Until this season, Kupp and Woods were more of a WR1A and WR1B than first and second options. After Stafford took the helm, Kupp has been the clear-cut top option, drawing an extra eight targets over two games. This is where we need to weigh the very reasonable case for something being fundamentally different (new quarterback) against our priors (these guys should have similar projections.) I lean towards the former option, but we need to embrace uncertainty in our DFS process.
With recency bias pushing the field towards Kupp, now could be the time to load up on Woods.
The discount in salary is important this week, with a few high-total games leading to some expensive players this week. Secondly, Woods just might still have a better ceiling. His average depth of target (aDOT) is deeper than Kupp’s, so a downfield role could pay off immensely this week. It’s also possible that opposing defenses are adjusting and will be tilting coverage towards Kupp moving forward.
Kupp is certainly the stronger play in a vacuum, but Woods might just win you more money this week.
Van Jefferson ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56 total)
You didn’t think we were done with Rams wideouts, did you?
Jefferson has quieted concerns about a diminished role due to the DeSean Jackson signing. He’s out-targeted Jackson six to two so far, on only 56 Stafford passes. With Stafford having a chance to throw much more this week, a reasonable projection for Jefferson targets is probably around four.
His extreme aDOT (20.17) means he’ll likely have a low catch rate but a high ceiling. He’s seeing the deepest looks of anyone on the Rams, so he’s one busted play away from smashing his salary-based expectations. Quite literally, at his 5.71 implied points, even a one-yard touchdown gives him a positive Plus/Minus on the day.
Jefferson is a cheap way to get more exposure to this game. He’s the only receiver other than Kupp to lead one of the DraftKings models due to his salary over there.
He’s priced too close to better options for my taste on FanDuel.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) Receivers at Los Angeles Rams (56 total)
With the projected game environment, all of the Tampa pass-catchers are in play as well. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have always been notoriously hard to pick on a weekly basis, and Antonio Brown is only adding to the challenge. Here’s the case on each of them.
Note: The Bucs placed Brown on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday. Now he needs to be asymptomatic and have two negative tests in 24 hours to be able to play on Sunday. Brown’s potential absence would free up roughly 12% of the target share.
Chris Godwin ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
After seeing 14 targets in Week 1, Godwin only drew five last week. He was able to make the most of them, hauling in four for 62 yards and a score. The short-area role for the Bucs belongs to Godwin, which has been historically where Brady does best. He should continue to see a high catch rate and has the explosive ability to turn short catches into touchdowns.
Godwin is my favorite of the trio on DraftKings, where he leads the group in Pts/Sal.
Mike Evans ($6,300, DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
After a disappointing Week 1, catching only three balls for only 24 yards, many were writing off Evans as being the forgotten member of this group. Those people were proven spectacularly wrong in Week 2, with Evans posting a 5/75/2 stat line, good for 24.5 DraftKings points.
This week, he’s being priced as the Bucs top receiver on both sites. Due to his salary, he has the worst Projected Plus/Minus of the bunch. He’s still firmly in play, though, since his red-zone role could be extra valuable when the Bucs are implied for 28.5 points.
Antonio Brown ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Brown is now seeing the types of targets that made him fantasy’s unquestioned WR1 for so long. His 20.57 aDOT leads the Bucs by a wide margin. With a disappointing one-catch performance in Week 2, he could also be overlooked by most of our competition.
After researching these guys, I’m more convinced that there isn’t a clear pecking order in Tampa. Matchup and scheme will dictate where the ball goes. It’s probably going to be a +EV strategy to simply play whoever did the worst the prior week, assuming you get a salary and ownership discount. This week, it’s Brown, who could easily post another 25+ point game, as he did in Week 1.
Note: The Bucs placed Brown on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday. Now he needs to be asymptomatic and have two negative tests in 24 hours to be able to play on Sunday. Brown’s potential absence would free up roughly 12% of the target share.
Minnesota Vikings (+2) Receivers vs. Seattle Seahawks (56 total)
Like the Bucs-Rams game, both sides of the ball in this one deserve discussion. Also, like the Bucs, the Vikings seem to suddenly have three relevant wide receivers, all of whom we’ll discuss.
Justin Jefferson ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Jefferson is the highest projected of the trio across both sites but is cheaper than Thielen on FanDuel. Jefferson has seen at least eight targets in every game since November of last season and has had a solid open to the season.
I’m strictly playing him on FanDuel this week, where his value is the best. He has the Vikings’ best Pts/Sal there and the worst on DraftKings.
Adam Thielen ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Thielen has easily outscored Jefferson so far this year, despite seeing two fewer targets. He’s been aided by an unsustainable 60% touchdown share but still has value every week. He’s my least favorite of the three overall since he’s fairly touchdown reliant, but he’s still a good play.
Thielen is in the middle of the trio in Bargain Rating on both sites, so he’s viable, but not an obvious value at either place.
K.J. Osborn ($3,500 Draftkings, $5,100 FanDuel)
Nobody tell DraftKings, but the Vikings have a third receiving option. Osborn has kept pace with his well-known teammates, seeing only four fewer targets than Jefferson so far this season. Projecting at 2.9 points per $1000 of salary on DraftKings; he’s clearly the best value play over there.
I expect the field to be on Osborn this week, so he’s not a tournament lock, but I can’t see a reason why he wouldn’t be included in every cash game build. On FanDuel, his salary is more in line with his role, but I think we’re on the conservative side of his projections (five points below Thielen), but he’s still a value.
