Yahooooo! There are 13 games on the Yahoo main slate that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
My top play is Lamar Jackson at $35. His projection is right on par with Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. While he has the lowest floor among the top quarterbacks on the slate, he has the highest Ceiling Projection. His Bargain Rating of 42% is by far the best among the top tier.
The Ravens play the Lions, who are #notgood. So far, in two games this season, they are 29th in Football Outsider’s rush defense DVOA and dead-last in pass defense DVOA. They have allowed the highest Plus/Minus of +11.2 on the season. The Atlanta Falcons are second at +7.9.
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Ravens are favored by 7.5 points with an implied total of 28.75. Jackson has played in 21 games when the Ravens have been favored by seven or more points in his career.
Per our Trends tool:
As of now, I think the projected ownership will be lower on Jackson despite his huge game in Week 2 as people will pay up for Murray, Mahomes, Wilson, Stafford, and Brady, or go down to Herbert or Jones.
Finally, this game has a chance of becoming a shootout as the Ravens are 24th in pass defense DVOA and 24th in adjusted sack rate. Jared Goff has thrown 57 and 36 times in the first two games and thrown for three and two touchdowns against the 49ers and Packers.
The Lions are not turtling up when behind. Instead, they have remained aggressive. If they can score points, then that will force the Ravens to maintain their aggressiveness.
Top Value
My top value is Daniel Jones at $25. As mentioned above, the Falcons have allowed the second-highest Plus/Minus to quarterbacks so far. Conversely, the Giants have allowed a Plus/Minus of +4.3 to opposing quarterbacks. Matt Ryan and the Falcons have struggled in two games, but they have a chance to break out after tough games against the Eagles and Buccaneers. The Giants also had two tough opponents in the Broncos and Washington Football Team.
The Vegas Dashboard has this game total at only 47.5 points, with the Giants implied for 25.25 points and the Falcons at 22.25. As a result, this game will likely get overlooked since there are plenty of games with totals over 50.
The Giants are 23rd in pass defense DVOA, while the Falcons are 27th. PFF has the Falcons as the lowest-rated pass-rush team, with the Giants at 25. The Giants are 10th in coverage, though, while the Falcons are 27th.
What makes Jones most appealing, though, is the rushing upside. He’s carried 15 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns so far. That provides a relatively high floor and, if this game does go back and forth, a ceiling outcome is in the range of outcomes.
Top Tournament Play
Matt Ryan is my favorite GPP play. Again, as I recommended him last week. He’s priced at $25, and no one is going to be on him this week. The game environment from a Vegas perspective doesn’t stand out and, if paying down at quarterback, most will go with the rushing prowess and upside of Justin Fields at $23.
As mentioned in the Jones section, this game has sneaky shootout potential. After laying an egg against the Eagles, Matt Ryan threw 46 times for 300 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions against a tough Tampa Bay defense. The Giants are a far cry from that level of defense.
Three hundred yards and three touchdowns aren’t unfathomable, with Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts having big games.
Running Backs
Top Play
My top play is Austin Ekeler at $29.
The Chiefs are dead-last in rush defense DVOA. Ekeler is 10th in red-zone carries and even if the Chiefs put up points and force the Chargers to throw, Ekeler is an excellent pass catcher.
There is a little bit of concern since the snap share has been in the 60% range to start the season. Also, projected ownership could be sky-high since many will flock to this game. That said, the floor/ceiling combo is one of the best on the slate, and the only way I pivot off of Ekeler is if the projected ownership gets too high.
Top Value
My top value is Najee Harris. He was priced at $25 last week and is now at $19.
I get it, as he only rushed 10 times for 38 yards last week. He did catch all five of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown, though. The matchup isn’t great as the Bengals are second in rush defense DVOA and 13th in defending passes to running backs.
That said, Harris is on the field essentially all the time for the Steelers. He gets the between-the-20 carries, the goal-line work, two-minute offense, long downs, and hurry-up snaps. Not many running backs in the league can lay claim to that workload.
Top Tournament Play
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is my top tournament play. Most of the focus will be on the passing games in this one, as the total is 54.5 points. Edwards-Helaire also hasn’t done much to inspire confidence in the early going. He’s rushed 14 times for 43 yards and 13 times for 46 yards in two games and received three targets.
As a result, the ownership level should be very low. He is still garnering around 70% of the snap share and is tied with Tyreek Hill for the most red-zone opportunities outside of Patrick Mahomes.
The Chargers’ defense keeps both safeties deep most of the time and have blitzed the fifth-fewest times. They tend to rely on the front four to bring pressure. As a result, they are 28th in rush defense DVOA.
Edwards-Helaire provides direct leverage to those who invest in the Chiefs’ passing attack.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
My top play is Robert Woods at $25. Cooper Kupp is $7 more expensive and will likely be very popular since he’s crushed the last two games with 32.3 and 20.3 Yahoo points. Woods, on the other hand? Not so much, producing 9.5 and 10.9 Yahoo points.
If Woods comes in higher rostered than expected and Kupp comes in lower, then I will happily pivot. That said, I just want exposure to the Rams’ passing game this weekend.
The Bucs are so tough to run against that most teams just don’t even bother. I think the Rams employ the same strategy. What makes the Rams’ passing game so intriguing is the concentrated target tree. Kupp has 21 targets on the season, while Woods has 13. No other player has more than seven.
In two games against Tampa Bay over the last two seasons, Kupp has caught 11 passes for 145 yards on 13 targets and nine passes for 121 yards with a touchdown on 15 targets. Woods went 13 for 164 yards on 15 targets and 12 for 130 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets.
Stacking both Kupp and Woods with Brady on the other side seems mighty intriguing.
Top Value
My top value is Michael Pittman at $17. He caught eight of 12 passes for 123 yards last week against the Rams. He has a Bargain Rating of 81%, and the Titans allow a Plus/Minus to wide receivers of +4.5, the most by any team. According to Football Outsiders, they are 30th in pass defense DVOA.
There’s a ton of risk here for sure as Carson Wentz may not play, and either Jacob Eason and/or Brett Hundley my start. I actually think Eason is a competent quarterback, so if he starts, that would just bring the ownership down on Pittman.
Top Tournament Play
My top GPP play is Calvin Ridley. He’s priced at $27, and I think most go down to Terry McLaurin at $21 or Robert Woods at $25 and Keenan Allen at $26.
As mentioned in the Jones section, I think this game goes overlooked and could be a spot where the Falcons offense explodes. Ridley hasn’t exceeded 63 yards in any game this season and scored one touchdown. He’s garnered eight and 10 targets, though, and he faced two tough defenses in the Eagles and Buccaneers.
Tight End
Top Play
My top play is TJ Hockenson at $24. I’m curious to see the projected ownership numbers because I’m assuming most will go up to Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or Rob Gronkowski. Or maybe not since Hockenson has scored a touchdown in each game and caught eight passes in each on nine and 10 targets. That’s elite stuff.
As mentioned in the Lamar section, I think Jared Goff is going to have to throw a ton in this game, and Hockenson is one of his favorite receivers. The Ravens were 22nd in DVOA against tight ends last season and are 25th this year, so the matchup isn’t daunting.
It all comes down to projected ownership. If he’s highly rostered, then I will look to pivot depending on the number. Hopefully, he goes overlooked this week.
As for why the fade on Kelce? In 13 career games against the Chargers, he’s averaged 10.02 DraftKings points with a -3.44 Plus/Minus and 30.8% Consistency Rating. He has gone over 20 DraftKings points in two of the three most recent games, though.
Top Value
My top value play is Gerald Everett at $10. He’s only received two targets in each of the first two games, but he did score a touchdown in one. It’s all about the game environment and matchup, as this game has a total of 56 and could be the highest-scoring one on the slate.
The Vikings are 27th in pass defense DVOA against tight ends. Hopefully, this game goes back and forth, which would provide Everett with more opportunities to score those fantasy goodies.
Top Tournament Play
My top GPP play is Kyle Pitts at $19. I think most have Pitts fatigue by now and are ready to move on to the next thing. He is also priced at a spot where paying the price for Mark Andrews or going down $2 to Noah Fant makes more sense.
As mentioned above, this Falcons-Giants game has some sneaky upside with both Ridley and Pitts breaking out. Is this the likeliest scenario? It is not, but that’s why Vegas has this game with a 47.5 total, and I’m writing about it in the tournament section.
Projected Ownership should be low and, while it’s not the most probable outcome that this game shoots out, it’s well within the range of outcomes.
Defense
Top Play
My top play is the Arizona Cardinals at $20. When it comes to defenses, I like to look for units that can generate pressure and will be facing one-dimensional offenses.
The Cardinals have the second-highest pass-rush grade, according to PFF. They are also ninth in coverage.
Arizona is going to score points as their implied point total is 29.75, the second-highest on the slate. As a result, the Jaguars are going to have to throw to keep pace. Trevor Lawrence will likely be a great quarterback one day, but he’s still a rookie.
Top Value
My top value is the New England Patriots at $12. It’s not the best environment as both teams will play close to the vest and slow it down. Jameis Winston has only attempted 20 and 22 passes in the first two games. That said, it’s Jameis Winston, and he’s always in play for five interceptions. I will always side with Bill Belichick versus Winston.
Tournament Play
My top GPP play is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at $13. Despite injuries in the secondary, this defense still has tons of talent. Due to their stout run defense, they make offenses one-dimensional.
I expect this game to be a shootout and want pieces of both passing attacks. That said, with the expected increase in passing attempts, that means more opportunities for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions. A pick-six with a couple of sacks while allowing 40 points could still be the top-scoring defense on the slate.
What if they stymie the Rams’ offense and rack up a bunch of sacks and interceptions while not allowing many touchdowns? Not only would you have one of the top-scoring defenses at low ownership, but you would be directly leveraged against all the Rams stacks.
