The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 3 NFL slate. We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Detroit Lions – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Week 3 gives us the first chance to roster Lamar Jackson on the main slate. As a dual threat-option, Jackson provides 75th-percentile performances both through the air and his rushing ability. He’ll face a Detroit Lions defense that ranks last in DVOA, giving up 323 yards to a Green Bay Packers offense in a 35-17 loss in Week 2.
Jackson put up MVP-worthy numbers in a Week 2 36-35 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, throwing for 239 and one touchdown, also running in two additional touchdowns. When passing, look for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews to see the most looks, with Brown having a strong 0.46 correlation to Jackson dating back to last season. With the matchup against the Lions currently a 50-point total, Jackson should be the centerpiece given a high-upside matchup, but be careful with over-stacking Ravens pass-catchers, given Jackson’s rushing tendencies.
Top Value: Justin Fields vs. Cleveland Browns – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Rookie quarterback Justin Fields will make his first start in place of the injured Andy Dalton. In Week 2, Fields threw for 60 yards on 13 pass attempts, facing a Cincinnati Bengals defense which grades as eighth overall, according to PFF.
Going against the Cleveland Browns as a 7.5-point underdog signals Fields may have to rely on the Bears’ receiving corps to keep pace. Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson II led the Bears in target share through two weeks, seeing 23% of looks and should be the preferred stacking options with Fields. The Browns grade out as the ninth-worst defense, according to PFF and given the discounted salary, and he could easily reach fantasy relevance with a mediocre performance, especially if the matchup is closer than anticipated.
Top Rostered: Josh Allen vs. Washington Football Team – $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Josh Allen looks to be a popular option for rosters this week (just behind Lamar), and with the potential for a 75th-percentile outcome every week, he gives lineups a high floor through his ability to move the Bills’ offense through the air and with his rushing ability.
Washington ranks 18th in defensive DVOA, giving up 391 to the New York Giants in a 30-29 win in Week 2. Per the Trends tool, Allen averages 22.3 actual DraftKings points at home with a game total of 45.5-points and below, with a +0.49 Plus/Minus rating. Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are all viable options to stack with Allen, with wide receivers seeing a 0.48 and 0.22 correlation to opposing wideouts dating back to last season.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry vs. Indianapolis Colts – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel
In Week 2, Derrick Henry posted a slate-breaking score, recording 50.7 DraftKings points because of a three-touchdown, 182-yard performance in a 33-30 win over the Seattle Seahawks.
With a lofty price tag of $8,600, Henry comes in with an 8.6% projected ownership but can consistently reach a 75th-percentile outcome with his big-play ability. Interestingly, Henry was targeted six times in Week 2, providing an additional dimension to one of the top running backs in the league. Henry faces an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and should be considered a spend-up option. The Titans are a six-point favorite and should lean on Henry to help run out the clock if ahead in the fourth quarter.
Top Value: Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $4,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Priced-down at $4,800 on DraftKings, Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helarie comes at a steep discount, likely from two lackluster performances to start the season. In the Chief’s 36-35 loss to the Ravens, Helaire rushed for 46 yards on 13 carries, leading the team with a 72% share of carries. Usually, a pass option for Patrick Mahomes, Edwards-Helaire was not targeted in Week 2.
Week 3 may be an opportunity to “buy,” with the Chiefs facing a Chargers defense ranked 28th in rush DVOA. However, CEH has a -0.28 correlation with Mahomes, so he’s best left off any Chiefs stacks that you may have.
Top Rostered: Dalvin Cook vs. Seattle Seahawks – $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
After a dominating performance from Derrick Henry against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, Dalvin Cook projects as a popular choice at running back in Week 3 matchup with Seattle. Cook has rushed for 192 yards and one touchdown to start the season, averaging 21 attempts per game. Cook should also factor in the passing game, seeing 10 targets and catching eight passes for 60 yards. With the game total currently at 55-points, Cook should be an easy choice as part of a Kirk Cousins stack or part of a Russell Wilson bring-back stack, given his versatile role.
Keep an eye on Cook’s status for Week 3. While all indication appears to have the star running back active, Cook has missed practice two consecutive days in a row, dealing with an ankle injury.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $8,400 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
A few players in the league are considered matchup proof, and Tyreek Hill is one. As a preferred target of Patrick Mahomes, Hill can undoubtedly reach a ceiling outcome with his big-play ability. So far this season, Hill has had five targets of more than 20 yards downfield and is responsible for 30% of the Chiefs’ target share, which leads the receiving corps. Despite a lackluster three-catch, 14-yard performance against the Ravens in Week 2, look for Hill to bounce back against a Chargers’ defense that ranks 18th in pass DVOA.
Hill has a strong 0.49 correlation to Mahomes and should be a staple in Mahomes Stacks. Expect tons of passing throughout the game, with both the Chargers and Chiefs ranking toward the bottom in pass DVOA, signaling Hill as a bring-back piece with Justin Herbert.
Top Value: Cooper Kupp vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
Week 3’s matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks to be a shootout, with the game total at 55.5-points, currently the highest on the slate. Both the Rams and Buccaneers play at a break-neck speed, calling a play every 24.8 seconds, which ties them for 10th in the league. Cooper Kupp has stood out as the primary target for quarterback Matthew Stafford, leading in target share with 38%. In a Week 2 27-24 win over the Indianapolis Colts, Kupp was targeted 11 times, catching nine passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns.
Although the Rams face a Buccaneers’ defense which grades as the third-best pass coverage defense according to PFF, Kupp is a viable option based on volume alone.
Top Rostered: Chris Godwin vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
Opposite to Cooper Kupp, Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin is projected as the highest rostered wide receiver on the slate at 22%. With Antonio Brown doubtful after testing positive for COVID-19, Godwin should have an increased role in the Buccaneers receiving corps if Brown sits out. With a 23% target share, Godwin leads the Buccaneers pass catchers and was targeted five times in a 48-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons, catching four passes for 62 yards and one touchdown.
Like Kupp, Godwin faces a tough Rams defense which grades out as the second-best pass coverage defense according to PFF. However, with the passing tendencies of Tom Brady, Godwin should have enough volume go his way to be fantasy relevant.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Los Angeles Chargers- $8,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Some may claim whenever Travis Kelce is on the slate, he’s a lock. Even with a high $8,200 salary on DraftKings, the Chiefs’ tight end is a regular fixture in the receiving corps and will have plenty of targets. In the Week 2 loss to the Ravens, Kelce was targeted eight times, catching seven passes for 109 yards and one touchdown.
Kelce is effective in the red zone, which lends to his ability to reach a 75th-percentile outcome. Dating back to last season, Kelce was targeted 20 times in the red zone and has a solid 0.15 correlation with Mahomes. Kelce should be considered as a bring-back option for Justin Herbert stacks, giving a lower-owned configuration, with Herbert seeing one-third of the projected ownership of Mahomes.
Top Value: Tyler Higbee vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
At half the price of Travis Kelce, Rams tight end Tyler Higbee gives lineups salary relief and a unique game stacking option against the Buccaneers. Higbee is third in target share out of the Rams’ receiving corps, at 12% and has a less-than-stellar outing against the Indianapolis Colts, catching one pass for eight yards.
In a high-pace matchup, Higbee factors into the Rams’ red zone play-calling, getting looks in the red zone and should benefit with Ram’s pass-friendly play calling. However, Higbee’s low price tag makes him a popular choice, projected at 18.1%.
Top Rostered: TJ Hockenson vs. Baltimore Ravens – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
With Tyler Higbee seeing the most projected ownership among tight ends, TJ Hockenson appears to be the second-most popular option, projected for 18% ownership.
In a 35-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Hockenson was targeted nine times, catching eight passes for 66 yards and one touchdown. This season, the tight end is the preferred target for quarterback Jared Goff, leading the receiving corps with a 20% market share.
Hockenson looks like the first choice for a bring-back in Lamar Jackson-featured lineups. With the Lions currently 7.5-point underdogs, look for Goff to keep the foot on the pedal, with the Detroit playing at the fifth-fastest pace, calling a play every 25.7 seconds.
