In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Travis Kelce
- Durham Smythe
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Travis Kelce ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Chicago Bears (48 total)
Travis Kelce was eased back into things in Week 2, running a route on 58% of the dropbacks. He saw nine targets, catching four balls for 26 yards and a touchdown.
He returned to an elite role very quickly. He had a 23% target share and a 20% share of the team’s air yards. He also had a 27% first-read target rate, which is unsurprising.
Kelce likely won’t return to 100% of the snaps, but he’ll likely see another noticeable uptick. I’m never too concerned about the matchup when dealing with a guy of Kelce’s caliber, and this week is no different. The Bears have given up the 12th-fewest DraftKings points to opposing tight ends on the year, but who cares?
They’re the Bears, and the Chiefs have an implied team total of over four touchdowns.
Kelce is the top play in our Tournament and Cash Game Models, as well as Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Durham Smythe ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-6.5) vs. Denver Broncos (48 total)
Durham Smythe has quietly had a consistent role in the Miami Dolphins offense. He’s ran a route on 91.3% and 96.9% of dropbacks in back-to-back weeks. However, he has just six catches for 67 yards.
He has just a 12% target share and an 11% first-read target rate, showing that he isn’t consistently schemed up targets. This isn’t unsurprising, as I also wouldn’t scheme up targets for Durham Smythe if I had Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert at my disposal.
Smythe is extremely cheap, and some targets could open up with Waddle potentially missing this contest. Denver just allowed Washington tight ends to catch seven of 10 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown.
Smythe is the top tight end in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Zach Ertz ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+12.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (43 total)
It’s ugly, but Zach Ertz looks like a strong option this weekend. He leads all tight ends in target share on the season somehow. He caught six of 10 targets for 21 yards in Week 1 and six of eight targets for 56 yards in Week 2.
He runs shorter routes, but he racks up the targets and catches. He makes a lot of sense in cash games, as he has a high floor and is unlikely to airball at a position that consistently has players who post a goose egg. However, he doesn’t have a ceiling that is appealing to attack in tournaments.
Luke Musgrave ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (40.5 total)
It didn’t take long for rookie Luke Musgrave to cement himself as a part of Green Bay’s offense. Injuries to Aaron Jones and Christian Watson certainly helped open up opportunities, but Musgrave is a talented player who has taken advantage.
He’s run a route on 81% of the dropbacks, with a 14% target share and 19% air yards share. He’s seeing a 15% first-read target rate, which isn’t spectacular but is plenty for a guy of his salary. Ertz is probably a stronger option in cash for a similar price range, but Musgrave is a strong tournament option.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick(s)
Mark Andrews ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (44 total)
Mark Andrews returned from injury to make his season debut in Week 2. He had a fine stat line, catching five of eight targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. He ran a route on 85% of the dropbacks, with a 24% target share and 15% air yards share. He saw a 21% first-read target rate, showing that he’s once again going to be a focal point of the offense and that he’s fully healthy.
We just saw the Colts give up a lot through the air to Houston, and Baltimore may be able to attack through the air as well. Once again, people will likely flock to Kelce or some of the cheap tight ends. Andrews falls right in the middle and posts a ceiling that isn’t reflected in his price.
I think he’s an awesome target in the mid-tier to capture some ceiling at a poor position overall.
