Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
George Kittle ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Like most of the 49ers’ top offensive options, Kittle is not at 100% at the moment. In fact, he’s far from a guarantee to suit up on Sunday. He missed Thursday’s practice with a hamstring injury, so he’ll need to improve over the next few days if he’s going to be in the lineup.
That said, if Kittle is active, he becomes one of the strongest TE plays on the slate.
Christian McCaffrey will miss his third consecutive contest for the 49ers, while Deebo Samuel will join him on the sidelines vs. the Rams. Kittle did some of his best work last season with Deebo unavailable, racking up 18 targets, 14 catches, and 227 yards in Weeks 7 and 8 last season.
Even with Samuel in the lineup in Week 2, Kittle finished as the top fantasy TE in PPR formats. He racked up 20.6 DraftKings points on seven catches, 76 yards, and a touchdown.
That’s the type of ceiling that Kittle brings to the table on Sunday. He has the potential to be the highest-scorer at the position, but he’s priced at a slight discount compared to the other top tight ends on DraftKings.
Kittle’s matchup is also a good one. The Rams have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position this season, allowing Trey McBride to post 18.7 DraftKings points against them last week. The Rams are also 30th in pass defense EPA, so that doesn’t feel particularly fluky. This should be a good matchup for tight ends all year, so Kittle is in about as good a spot as possible if he’s able to suit up.
Trey McBride ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Speaking of McBride, he also warrants consideration at the top of the pricing spectrum. He’s $500 more expensive than Kittle on DraftKings, but he checks in slightly cheaper on FanDuel. In fact, he’s just the fourth-most-expensive option at TE on FanDuel, trailing Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Sam LaPorta.
It’s hard to justify that after the first two weeks. McBride has been the most featured tight end in the league over that time frame. He’s racked up 29% of the Cardinals’ targets, and no other tight end is above 25%. He has at least six targets in each of his first two games, and Brock Bowers is the only other tight end who fits that description.
McBride should be able to post another successful outing in Week 3. He’s taking on the Lions at home in the game with the highest total of the week (51.5). The Lions have also been a bottom-10 defense in terms of pass defense EPA, even though they’ve been pretty good against opposing tight ends for fantasy purposes. Still, shutting down Cade Otton and Colby Parkinson and shutting down McBride are completely different animals.
He ultimately leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, while he has the highest median and ceiling projections across the industry.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Brock Bowers ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
It’s extremely difficult to overlook Bowers at this point. The 2024 first-rounder has lived up to the hype through the first two weeks, racking up 17 total targets. He’s garnered 24% of the Raiders targets and air yards, both of which trail only Davante Adams for the team lead.
I see no reason why anything should change moving forward. If anything, Bowers’ role still has room to grow. He ran a route on just 65% of the Raiders’ dropbacks last week, so he still has room for improvement. Michael Mayer isn’t going away, but it’s going to be impossible to deny Bowers if he continues to produce at an elite level.
Ultimately, Bowers is just on the cusp of being considered among the best fantasy tight ends in football. One more strong showing could get the job done.
Mark Andrews ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Is it panic time for Andrews? He was massively outperformed by Isaiah Likely in Week 1, and he didn’t exactly smash in Week 2 either. He finished with five targets, four catches, and 51 yards, good for just 9.1 DraftKings points. It was still enough to make him the 10th-best PPR tight end for the week, but it’s not exactly the type of production we’ve come to expect from Andrews.
Still, the underlying metrics are there. He has a 74% route participation through the first two weeks, and he jumped up to a 17% target share in Week 2. That’s not an elite figure, but it’s a step in the right direction.
Andrews is a clear buy-low target at just $4,800 on DraftKings. He owns the top Bargain Rating among all tight ends priced above $3,700, and Andrews averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.35 with a comparable salary over the past three seasons (per the Trends tool).
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Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Jake Ferguson ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
Ferguson missed last week’s game with a knee injury, but he’s had two limited practices to start the week. That puts him on track to return to the lineup vs. the Ravens in Week 3.
Ferguson has yet to get going this season, but he was a solid fantasy tight end in 2023. He finished as the No. 10 TE in PPR points per game, averaging a respectable 10.4.
Ferguson was also busy in his first game of the year, racking up a target on 29% of his routes run. Luke Schoonmaker had a 40% TPRR in place of Ferguson last week, so the Dallas tight ends should remain busy this season.
Ferguson is checking in with the largest discrepancy between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership in SimLabs. That makes him the ideal candidate for a low-owned GPP flyer.
Greg Dulcich ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
It’s really difficult to get excited about any member of the Broncos’ passing attack at this point. Bo Nix has looked dreadful through the first two weeks, so there’s been minimal fantasy production to go around.
Still, Nix has averaged a whopping 38.5 pass attempts per game. That’s a ton of volume, with only the Lions and Browns averaging more throws through the first two weeks. That much volume is bound to create opportunity somewhere.
Dulcich wasn’t really on the fantasy radar to start the year, but he saw an outstanding 26% target share in Week 2. He only managed to catch three of his eight targets for 16 yards, but he’s going to have opportunities for bigger weeks moving forward. At just $2,900 on DraftKings, he’s a very worthwhile punt play for tournaments, and he actually leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
With A.J. Brown still out of the lineup for the Eagles, Goedert has more upside than usual. That said, he’s flying way under the radar after a slow start to the year.
There are definitely some concerning numbers in Goedert’s profile. He has just a 14% target share through the first two weeks, and he’s racked up just 9% of the team’s air yards. Both of those numbers are way down compared to last season.
The good news is that Goedert did post a perfect 100% route participation in Week 2 after just a 77% mark in Week 1. The absence of Brown should at least get Goedert on the field more, even if it doesn’t necessarily guarantee more targets.
Ultimately, if Brown was out of the lineup in Week 1, Goedert would’ve been the highest-owned tight end on the slate at just $4,600. Instead, we can get him at less than 10% ownership. It’s an elite buy-low spot.
