I started playing DFS on DraftStreet in 2013. For the next six years, I primarily played cash games because I was in love with the slow, methodical grind, along with the safety that comes from playing a format where you only have to beat one other person or roughly half the field if you’re in 50/50s or double-ups.
Nowadays, I’ve decided to pull the ripcord on the safety net so that I could seek out more upside.
The hardest part of switching to GPP only? Getting comfortable with losing … a lot more often. However, with proper game selection and bankroll management, all you need is one or two nice scores to be in the black when the season ends.
And when you’re mainly targeting small-field GPPs, your lineups don’t need to be as perfect compared to when you’re entering these larger fields. Personally, I consider a small field as a tournament with 500 or fewer people, but some DFS players may have a broader definition.
And typically, I am playing in tournaments with 300 or fewer people.
Anyway, each week I’ll be using our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools and the FantasyLabs Player Models to discuss my overall strategy for how I’m attacking these smaller fields.
General Strategy
My overall strategy for these formats is quite simple: I try to game stack as much as possible.
This strategy can give you unique builds compared to the field, where some players may just be throwing their cash lineups (or a slightly different variation) into them because there aren’t many people competing — or they’re simply not stacking enough in their lineups.
This strategy typically lands you on high-total games because that’s where we’d expect the most points to be scored. Naturally, high-total games come with higher projected ownership on certain players. However, since we are trying to game stack, it’s still possible to have unique builds, and we can still insert other one-off plays to differentiate our lineups.
You don’t need a whole lineup of contrarian plays to win a small-field tournament. I also tend to rely on the Ceiling Projections instead of Median Projections when I am making my lineup decisions.
Also, keep in mind the projected ownership levels in the models are geared toward large-field GPPs, so there is some guesswork on estimating ownership projections for smaller fields. Although, small-field single-entry tournaments typically resemble cash builds, so it doesn’t involve too much guesswork.
Note: I play these small-field tournaments on DraftKings, so that’s what this analysis will focus on.
Games I’m Targeting
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28.25) @ Los Angeles Rams (27.25)
Early in the week, I pegged this game as my favorite one to game stack, given the high total and close spread. I initially thought this game may come in with lower ownership projections on some players, but on Saturday morning, it’s obvious that this isn’t the case.
That said, this game is still in strong consideration for me. There are contrarian pieces in this game to give you unique builds. Especially if you want to roster Tom Brady. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are coming off huge games, and with all eyes on Chris Godwin, Evans and Gronk are currently sporting an ownership projection under 10%. Overall, Evans has one of the highest Leverage Scores in my model.
My preferred double-stack in this spot is Godwin + Evans. Even though Godwin is expected to be on a high amount of rosters, we don’t need to be contrarian everywhere in these tournaments. It’d be silly to fade Godwin’s team-high 23.5% target share, especially if Antonio Brown is ruled out.
One of the main reasons this game is so appealing is because we’re expecting this to be a pass-heavy game, given each team’s running game outlook and the opposing run defenses. The Bucs and Rams rank first and third in PFF’s passing grades. It’s had to imagine this game not being a shootout with how it’s set up.
It also helps that neither of these head coaches believes in bogus rushing attempt numbers, like Pete Carroll:
“There’s an old number that I think I give credit to Vince Lombardi for this, just because that’s how I remember it, that he had a number that, in games, if you can combine your completed passes and your total rush attempts and they combine, they connect for 50 or more attempts, then — and that happens in a game — you’re going to win.”
Anyway, if you’re looking to complete this game stack, two of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, or Tyler Higbee makes the most sense. Matthew Stafford has only 30 and 26 pass attempts in his last two games. I’d have to imagine his attempts are much higher this week. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Stafford chuck the ball 50 times in this spot.
Kupp and Woods together likely make the most sense together given their correlation together:
However, strictly speaking from a projected ownership perspective, Higbee is currently projecting for 6-15% less rostership than Woods and Kupp. To be honest, if we’re expecting this game to be high scoring and Stafford to increase his pass attempts, we could roster all three guys and get your exposure to Stafford that way — then roster Brady with your preferred Tampa Bay stacks.
That would certainly give you a unique build in a game where a lot of the pieces are expected to be popular.
If this game is too chalky for your liking, there are plenty of other games to target.
Los Angeles Chargers (23.75) @ Kansas City Chiefs (30.75)
A week after being one of the highest rostered quarterbacks, I’d expect Justin Herbert to be slightly more overlooked this week. However, he’s still expected to garner some rostership. He currently has a neutral Leverage Score in my model.
This season, the Chiefs have been abysmal on defense, ranking 31st in total DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA. Even though Austin Ekeler has a slight negative correlation with Herbert, I still like stacking him in this potential track meet after Ekeler recorded nine targets in Week 2. Ekeler’s nine targets last week came on 24 routes run, equating to a 37.5% target share on those routes.
You may get lucky and get the passing touchdown to the running back. The Chiefs also rank dead last in rush DVOA.
I don’t have a strong take on Keenan Allen vs. Mike Williams as they both have a target share and air yards share within 1-3 percentage points of each other. Allen has the higher Ceiling Projection, but Williams is offering a higher Leverage Score.
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is that you can apply different weights to our NFL projections from some of our partners (may require separate purchase) to create an aggregate set to your specifications (you can also upload your own):
On the Chiefs’ side, I prefer to run this back with Tyreek Hill (shocking) as he has the highest Ceiling Projection among all flex positions once I make my preferred inputs in all of our available projections. Hill is seeing a 31% target share and 43% air yards share through the first two weeks.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also going to be a decision point for a lot of DFS players this week with his cheap price tag — it’s worth noting he has a negative correlation with anyone on his team you’d consider rostering:
One-Off Plays
Depending on the game stacks you roll with, it’s still possible to get in Derrick Henry. I was a week early on him in Week 1, didn’t have him for his eruption game last week, but I am trying to work him in if I pay up for running back in one of my spots. His Ceiling Projection trails only Hill and Kupp, and Henry still has a positive Leverage Score in my model despite the 16% ownership projection.
Per our Trends tool, Henry has averaged 20.67 DraftKings points with a +5.97 Plus/Minus when the Titans are favored by at least five points.
On the flip side, targeting Jonathan Taylor could be an interesting leverage play with Henry expecting to see some rostership. A road underdog isn’t typically a spot I’d target a running back, but Taylor’s 19.5 touches per game ranks eighth in the league, and he still has some pass-catching ability.
The matchup isn’t daunting as the Titans rank 24th in rush DVOA, and Taylor has one of the higher Leverage Scores among running backs in my model. He’s also projecting as a top-15 value. It’s certainly a concern that Carson Wentz may not play, potentially making their inefficient offense even more inefficient, but I’ll chase his volume and hope he’s more boom than bust.
I wouldn’t play Henry and Taylor together, so Taylor can be ignored if you slot Henry in.
Mike Davis has a poor Leverage Score, but he may be a necessary spend-down option if you don’t want to roster CEH. Davis is projecting as one of the best running back values, and his 17.0 touches per game ranks 12th in the league.
Billy Ward makes the case for some other running backs in his running back breakdown.
The Seahawks-Vikings game almost made the section above, but I think I am just targeting one of DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett, depending on what my game stack turns into. Both receivers have comparable Leverage Scores and Ceiling Projections and are projecting within 2% of each other in terms of rostership. Oh, and both players have a 31% target share on the year.
In this same game, KJ Osborn is expected to be rather chalky, so Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen represent strong leverage as well. Jefferson and Thielen have gone under rostered the first two weeks of the season, and this game sets up incredibly well for one of them to have a ceiling game.
If you don’t want to debate Metcalf and Lockett, Calvin Ridley costs less than them and is seeing comparable usage with a 27% target share and 50% air yards share. Ridley currently owns the 11th-best Leverage Score, and the Giants rank 23rd in pass DVOA.
Most of the leverage at the receiver position this week revolves around the top tier of receivers. Marvin Jones is expected to be highly rostered, but his $4,900 salary could be necessary to fit in some of the more expensive options we want. He’s been Trevor Lawrence’s favorite option as Jones has a team-high 25% target share.
If you’re not stacking Bucs-Rams and need salary relief, you could roster Van Jefferson or Scotty Miller (if Brown is out). Both players have low floors, but they give you access to this game environment and gives you some roster flexibility.
Kyle Pitts ranks first in my model and has a positive Leverage Score. He’s a strong GPP option with concentrated rostership on TJ Hockenson and Higbee. Pitts’s fantasy output hasn’t been anything to write home about, but he has a solid 21% target share.
Mark Andrews is my other favorite pivot with an ownership projection under 9%. He hasn’t had a ceiling game, but he’s still seeing a 20% target share and has the third-highest Ceiling Projection among tight ends in my model.
Other One-Off Plays with Positive Leverage Scores
- Nick Chubb
- D’Andre Swift
- Terry McLaurin
- Stefon Diggs
- Chase Claypool
If you’re struggling to get a feel for the slate, we also have some optimizer templates in our Lineup Builder that you can use to see where the raw projections are leaning for stacks:
