In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 3 Fantasy Rankings (as of Thursday):
- Dalvin Cook (2nd)
- Saquon Barkley (9th)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (21st)
- James Conner (37th)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
Dalvin Cook ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) Minnesota Vikings (+1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (55 total)
Dalvin Cook leads two of our Pro’s Models on DraftKings, where he’s significantly more affordable this week. So far this season, he’s shown his characteristic usage rate, topping 25 opportunities (carries plus targets) in both games. He’s been solid, if unspectacular, averaging 20.6 DraftKings points.
This week sets up well for a Cook eruption, though. This game has the second-highest point total on the slate, and the Vikings touchdowns have to come from somewhere. Cook’s 4.06 red-zone attempts per game in the last year trails only Derrick Henry on the slate.
Cook has crushed in high-total games, per our Trends tool:
The Seahawks are also a relatively soft matchup. Their +5.2 Opponent Plus/Minus is the second-highest this week (trailing only the Vikings.). Cook should continue to see his standard heavy workload while playing in a high-scoring affair against a team that struggles to defend running backs.
All this adds up to a slate-leading Floor and Projected Plus/Minus Projection. I prefer him on DraftKings due to his price, but he’s a solid play on FanDuel as well.
Note: Cook has been held out of practice this week with an ankle injury, so be sure to monitor his status on Sunday afternoon.
Saquon Barkley ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) New York Giants (-3) vs Atlanta Falcons (47.5 total)
Before looking at the FanDuel side of this slate, I remember thinking that Saquon seemed like a solid value on DraftKings, sitting at seventh in Pts/Sal. Then I saw the FanDuel salaries. It’s no surprise he leads two of our Pro Models there. His 2.4 Pts/Sal is the best of any non-quarterback.
Saquon draws a solid matchup in the Falcons’ 28th-ranked (by DVOA) defense. He’s been disappointing thus far, but matchups with the Broncos and Football Team made for a difficult return from injury. Based on preseason talk, I was already expecting Barkley to be eased in as the season progressed. He was more efficient and saw more carries last week than in Week 1, which is a trend I expect to continue.
As I frequently say in this space, it’s more valuable to be first than to be right. A quote I stole directly from FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales, but it applies here. After this week, I expect Saquon’s price and rostership to start moving back to his pre-injury levels.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs (-7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (54.5 total)
CEH’s price is hard to ignore on DraftKings as he’s seeing 85% of the running back touches for the league’s best offense. Any other player fitting that description would cost about $2,000 more. But this isn’t any other player. Edwards-Helaire has disappointed in his young NFL career, failing to live up to his first-round NFL draft capital. It’s difficult to say how much of this is an indictment of his talent or just his situation.
This season, he’s off to an ignominious start, averaging under seven DraftKings points per game. Most concerning is his limited involvement in the passing game, with only three targets so far. With this game projected by Vegas to be a shootout, he’ll need to get involved there to post a big game.
If you think Edwards-Helaire has any talent, he’s an absolute must-play this week. He leads running backs in Pts/Sal on DraftKings by a fairly wide margin. He also leads three of our Pro Models there.
James Conner ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (52 total)
While Conner is our 37th-ranked running back in our season-long rankings, is an interesting inclusion on this list, the case for him makes a lot of sense. Conner has served as the primary rusher for the Cardinals, out carrying teammate Chase Edmonds ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) 24-20. Edmonds has served as the third-down/hurry-up offense back, with 100% of the Cards’ running back passes going to him.
The Cardinals are the second-largest favorite on the slate, creating a perfect opportunity for Conner. If the Cardinals get out to an early lead, he will likely see the bulk of the backfield reps. The Jaguars are also a non-threatening matchup, with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.0, the third-highest this week.
Conveniently, everything lines up best for Conner on FanDuel. His lack of pass-game involvement is less of an issue there, with half-point PPR scoring. He also has a 93% Bargain Rating. We have him projected for a minuscule 0.5% ownership, which is crucial for tournaments. All of this adds up to him leading two of our Pro’s Models.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Derrick Henry ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) Tennessee Titans (-5) vs Indianapolis Colts (48 total)
The big dog ate last week, erupting for over 50 DraftKings points with three touchdowns. The argument against Henry in the past has always been his lack of targets, on full-PPR DraftKings in particular.
However, he’s seen 10 targets across the first two contests this year, so we might have to start reevaluating that if that trend continues. Henry is always a threat to post the highest score on the week; he’s gone over 39 points in five of his last 18 games. He leads the slate in Median and Ceiling projection on both sites this week.
Nick Chubb ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) Cleveland Browns (-7) vs Chicago Bears (45.5 total)
It’s honestly impressive what Chubb has been able to do, despite being part of a split backfield. Over the last calendar year, he’s accounted for just over 50% of Cleveland’s running back production but still averages over 18 DraftKings points per game.
On the other hand, paying his salary for part of a committee backfield isn’t very appealing. The presence of Kareem Hunt ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) limits his upside. Chubb hasn’t topped 30 DraftKings points in a game Hunt played.
Still, it’s a nice game script for Chubb. As seven-point favorites, the Browns might run the ball enough to produce two solid fantasy scores.
Austin Ekeler ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs (54.5 total)
After seeing zero targets in Week 1, Ekeler put concerns over his receiving role to rest in Week 2. He saw nine targets and caught all of them for 61 yards. His offensive coordinator is the man who gave us Alvin Kamara and Darren Sproles, which would be a hugely valuable role for Ekeler. Especially this week, in a game where the Chargers will struggle to keep pace with the explosive Chiefs.
Ekeler is a bit of a challenge to figure out where to play. His role is better suited for DraftKings, but he has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He should be in consideration on both sites.
Alvin Kamara ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,000 Fanduel) New Orleans Saints (+3) at New England Patriots (42 total)
It’s a testament to Kamara’s ability (and efficiency, his 1.42 DraftKings points per touch last season was best among backs with at least 50 touches) that he has our third-highest Ceiling Projection this week. The 42-point total in his game is the second-lowest of the week, and the teams involved are among the five slowest-paced teams in the league this year.
Bill Belichick and the Patriots are also notorious for scheming their defense to stop their opponent’s best player. Even so, his combination of efficiency, red zone role, and pass-game involvement make him a weekly consideration, especially on FanDuel, where he holds a 98% Bargain Rating.
Joe Mixon ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (43 total)
Mixon is one of the true workhorse backs in the league, getting over 90% of the Bengals’ running back carries (and two-thirds of the targets).
He’s too cheap on both sites for his role, likely due to the perceived difficulty of the matchup with the Steelers. However, this Steelers team allowed Devin Singletary ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) to run for 6.6 yards in Week 1. I’m not sure if the Steelers’ defense is quite as good as it was in years past. Mixon is second among running backs in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
