Saints at Giants
This game currently has a 53.5-point implied Vegas total. The Giants are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 29 points. The Saints are implied to score 24.5 points as road underdogs. Weather will be something to monitor as we get closer to Sunday, with current predictions set for 81 degrees with eight-mph wind speeds and a 59 percent chance of precipitation.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
When these two teams met in the Superdome last year, we were treated to the third-highest scoring game in NFL history. Brees set new personal records in passing yards (511), completions (40), and touchdowns (7). His 44.3 fantasy points were not only the highest of the week but also in the top 10 of all time. There’s a reason everyone will be utilizing players from this game. The Giants had one of the worst secondaries last year and allowed the most completions and passing yards with the second-worst Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
RB – Mark Ingram
Ingram’s eight Pro Trends on DraftKings lead all running backs this week per our Player Models. In a game with four touchdowns, Ingram was surprisingly quiet against the Raiders in Week 1, putting up just 10 DK.7 points. Ingram should bounce back this week against a team that allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns last season. Still, his usage last week was concerning and his snaps (42 percent) and touches (14) will need to rise before he’s a comfortable play in cash games.
RB – Travaris Cadet
With C.J. Spiller being a healthy scratch on Sunday, Cadet saw regular work as a receiver with seven targets. He was only able to convert those opportunities into three receptions for 14 yards, but he did score. Priced at the $3,000 minimum on DK, Cadet could provide some value this week if he’s able to do more with the seven targets that came his way. Cadet saw just three fewer snaps than Ingram last week and could limit Ingram’s potential.
RB – Tim Hightower
Hightower finished last week with just four carries and will need an injury to see fantasy relevance. All four of his carries came outside of the red zone, so his vulture potential is probably limited.
WR – Brandin Cooks
Cooks’ 98-yard reception was a thing of beauty and allowed him to finish with the second-highest fantasy score among all receivers in Week 1. In Week 2, Cooks will have a tougher matchup against Janoris Jenkins, one of PFF’s top-30 cornerbacks last season. In this high-scoring game, Cooks will likely see another large target market share (23.1 percent in Week 1) .
WR – Willie Snead
Snead looks like the guy to target in both cash and tournaments in this game. Snead matches up with Eli Apple, whom John Proctor noted was PFF’s 62nd-ranked cornerback after Week 1. Snead caught all nine of his targets last week and has the potential to see more in one of the best matchups as road underdogs. Working out of the slot, Snead should be able to turn in a better performance than Cole Beasley did last week. Beasley was able to muster 12 targets attacking the middle of this Giants defense, showcasing the vulnerable linebackers and safeties.
WR – Michael Thomas
Thomas bounced around the formation in his rookie debut, but spent most of his time on the outside. 78.3 percent of the team’s snaps is nothing to scoff at in his NFL debut, as he caught all six of his targets for 58 yards. Thomas’ projected low ownership of just 2-4 percent in this matchup could be a way for unique exposure, considering he’s projected for a 12.3-point ceiling with FanDuel scoring at just $5,000.
TE – Coby Fleener
We were warned all preseason that Fleener looked behind on learning the playbook, and we shouldn’t be shocked that he came out with a one-catch, six-yard performance. Fleener saw 81.2 percent of the snaps but just 9.5 percent of the team’s targets. However, the Giants ranked 27th in defense last year (per Football Outsiders), and with Josh Hill going through what is believed to be a high ankle sprain Fleener should see an uptick in usage. The Giants’ +4.7 Opponent Plus/Minus to tight ends is encouraging for Fleener, and he’s now cheaper with a -$1,000 Salary Change on DraftKings.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Nobody allowed more fantasy points (24.0) and touchdowns (45) to quarterbacks than the Saints defense in 2015. Football Outsiders ranked ranked them 32nd against the pass last season. The 2016 Saints, looking equally burnable, gave up 319 yards and 22.4 fantasy points to Oakland on Sunday. New Orleans will now be without their top cornerback, Delvin Breaux, who is out with a broken fibula. Per our Player Models, their Opponents Plus/Minus against quarterbacks is an unearthly +9.70 on DraftKings, the most generous Plus/Minus allowed by more than four points.
Manning threw for 350 yards and six touchdowns against the Saints in Week 8 last season. The last three times these teams have faced each other, the winning team has scored at least 49 points while averaging 51 points per game. The winning quarterback in those three games has averaged five touchdown passes per game. Manning has accumulated 12 touchdowns in the three games. Quarterbacks priced between $7,800 and $8,400 on FanDuel (where Manning has an 86 percent Bargain Rating) and playing in games with a Vegas total of 50 points or higher have historically produced a +4.52 Plus/Minus with steady 69.4 percent Consistency and 5.9 percent average ownership in large tournaments.
RB – Rashad Jennings
The Saints gave up 1,836 rushing yards yards (fourth-most), 10 rushing touchdowns (11th-most), and 22.8 fantasy points (third-most) per game to running backs in 2015. New Orleans’ front seven was ranked 29th heading into the 2016 season by PFF, which noted that “the Saints’ run defense was dire last season, with a league-worst 4.80 yards per carry allowed in base defense and 5.40 yards per carry allowed in sub-packages.”
In Week 1 against Oakland, they allowed 151 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and 38.20 fantasy points (second-most) to running backs. Jennings was given 18 carries (75 percent of the Giants rushing attempts) and targeted twice against the clock-hogging Cowboys on Sunday, but you can expect a higher pace in the highest-total game on the slate. Running backs priced comparably to Jennings on FD when favored by four to six points at home have provided a +5.25 Plus/Minus with 68.2 percent Consistency and 9.4 percent average ownership.
RB – Shane Vereen
Last year Football Outsiders ranked New Orleans 31st in pass defense against running backs. The Saints allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns (7) to running backs, the third-most receiving yards (938), and the ninth-most receptions (94) last season. They yielded six receptions for 51 yards to Oakland’s backs on Sunday. Vereen saw five targets last week. Only Odell Beckham on the Giants was targeted more. Running backs priced between $3,500 and $4,100 on DraftKings who have received four to six targets per game the past 12 months and are playing in games with a total of 49 or higher have generated a +4.37 Plus/Minus with 64.7 percent Consistency and an average ownership of just 2.6 percent.
WR – Odell Beckham
Per our Trends tool, since 2014 Beckham has played in 14 games in which the Giants were implied to score 24 or more points. In those games he has averaged 27.94 DK points per game, with an +11.01 Plus/Minus, 85.7 percent Consistency, and 23.6 percent average ownership. Beckham lit up the Saints for 42 DK points last season at just 6.6 percent ownership. The FantasyLabs ownership projections expect OBJ to be owned between 21 to 25 percent in DK’s Millionaire Maker this Sunday. Beckham currently has a top-three projected ceiling in our Player Models.
WR – Sterling Shepard
The Siants allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers (27) in 2015, when they were ranked 29th against No. 2 receivers by Football Outsiders. New Orleans has a +2.10 Opponents Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers the past 12 months. Receivers like Shepard, who are priced from $4,900 to $5,500 on DK and playing against a team with an Opponents Plus/Minus between +1.60 and +2.60 have produced a +3.19 Plus/Minus with 59.0 percent Consistency and 6.6 percent ownership in tournaments. Per our Matchups page, Shepard this week will line up primarily against Ken Crawley, an undrafted rookie. Crawley’s PFF grade is 28.3, giving Shepard, who graded out at 73.1, the largest graded-advantage of the week.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz looked sharp in his return, catching all four of his targets for 34 yards and a touchdown. Receivers on FD (where Cruz has a 69 percent Bargain Rating) priced from $5,500 to $5,900 and playing in a game with a total from 50 to 55 have accumulated a +1.45 Plus/Minus.
TE – Will Tye
Tye was targeted three times in Week 1, but it was Larry Donnell (targeted twice) who caught a touchdown. Even against a Saints defense allowing the third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus to tight ends (+3.2), this is a tight end by committee that carries a lot of risk.
News Updates
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