Dolphins at Patriots
This game currently has a 42.5-point implied Vegas total. The Patriots are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.5 points, with the Dolphins being 18-point road underdogs. The weather in Foxboro is expected to cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain and scatted thunderstorms.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Tannehill
Of 37 players with 200-plus pass attempts last season, Tannehill finished 21st in passer rating (88.7) and 22nd in completion percentage (61.9 percent) in what was a disappointing campaign. Tannehill was sacked five times in Week 1 and harassed all game by the Seahawks en route to a 74.8 QBR. He did have a rushing touchdown but the offense as a whole gained just 222 total yards.
This week, the matchup is an average one: The Patriots ranked 15th in Pass DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) last season. Tannehill has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.5 on FD. Even with a FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in the Sunday Million, Tannehill is still probably not worth the risk. He has a frightening 4.7-point projected floor.
RB – Arian Foster
Even though Foster had five targets in Week 1, it should be noted that head coach Adam Gase does not use his backs often in the passing game and that 50 of Foster’s 62 yards receiving came on one play. Before we get too excited about Foster and his 100 total yards we should look back to 2015, when the Bears ranked 21st in the league in running back receptions on a team with pass-catching specialist Matt Forte. In Week 1, Foster got 18.52 percent of the team’s target share. We should monitor his target share moving forward.
We’ll also need to monitor the running game, especially if backup Jay Ajayi is active. Foster had 65 percent of the team’s carries in Week 1, but Ajayi could cut into Foster’s workload. All three years Gase has been a play-caller he has had an offense ranked between sixth and 11th in total rushing attempts, so his inclination is to run the ball, but this week he faces a Patriots team that ranked 10th against the run last year (per Football Outsiders) and is heavily favored. Foster might not get a lot of carries in Week 2. He at least has a 92 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
RB – Jay Ajayi
Although Gase says that this week will be a “new day” for Ajayi, he is not a given to be active in Week 2. Foster was not overly impressive in Week 1, but Ajayi never received more than nine carries in a game behind Lamar Miller last year.
WR – Jarvis Landry
A slot receiver with an average depth of target of 7.4 and 5.5 the past two seasons, he has drawn 9.92 targets per game since becoming a starter in his rookie season. In Week 1 it was more of the same from Landry, who led the Dolphins in targets with 10, good for a 37.04 percent target share. (His average was 28.7 percent last year.) Players with target shares comparable to Landry’s 2015 average actually perform below expectations against the Patriots on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
WR – Kenny Stills
Stills was wide open on a deep ball against the Seahawks and dropped it. He converted just one of his five targets. A perpetual disappointment, Stills at least managed to have an 18.52 percent market share of targets in Week 1. For Week 2, the good news (per sportingcharts.com) is that the Patriots tied for the sixth-most big plays allowed last season at 2.25 per game. With Landry underneath soaking up short-intermediate targets, Stills could be an intriguing GPP target if he can redeem himself and catch a couple of long passes.
WR – DeVante Parker
As a rookie, Parker saw six of his 50 targets on throws thirty or more yards downfield. The problem with stretching the field is it takes at least one healthy hamstring. It is unknown if Parker will be active in Week 2, although he was reportedly close to suiting up last week. Even if he does play, he will likely be on a snap count, which is generally a situation to avoid.
TE – Jordan Cameron
Cameron had just 11.11 percent target share in Week 1 and is likely behind Landry, Parker, Stills, rookie Leonte Carroo, and Foster in the battle for targets. It doesn’t help that the Patriots gave up the fourth-fewest DraftKings points per game to tight ends last year (9.8). That said, Cameron’s $2,800 salary and 10.6-point ceiling on DraftKings might make him a punt consideration.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo didn’t look skittish. He took some hits but largely relied on high percentage throws in Week 1. Four of his five biggest completions were a deep 37-yard touchdown to Chris Hogan that came off a busted coverage, a 21-yard dump off to James White, and two short passes to Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell that turned into 19- and 28-yard gains largely after the catch. Per PFF, Garoppolo’s aDOT was a measly 6.8 yards. Are we okay with this for DFS purposes? With a FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent in the Week 2 Sunday Million, Garoppolo (with the slate’s third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 3.2) could be worth the risk, especially if he gets Rob Gronkowski back. He’s facing a Miami defense that tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns allowed in 2015.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
As a Patriot, Blount now has scored 24 touchdowns in 31 career games. This is clearly his backfield until Dion Lewis returns. Even through Blount was inefficient in Week 1 (3.18 yards per carry on 22 attempts), and even though he fumbled in the third quarter, he kept getting the ball. He isn’t going to get work as a pass catcher, but with a Week 1 rushing share of 70.97 percent and a clear role as the goal-line back he’s still a fantasy producer with upside.
In Week 2, Blount faces a Miami defense that gave up the most DraftKings points per game to running backs in 2015 and 112 rushing yards to Seattle in Week 1. It is no surprise that Blount owns the highest Projected Plus/Minus (+5.9) of any running back on DraftKings, where he has an 82 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – James White
The 2015 leader in yards per touch (7.5), White is the Patriots’ pass-catching back with Lewis injured. He saw seven targets in Week 1, good enough for a 19.44 percent target share, but he had just one carry. A runner who isn’t really used as a runner, White is almost entirely dependent on the passing game for production. As heavy favorites, the Patriots might not need to throw to the back that often in Week 2. Still, White’s +4.6 Projected Plus Minus on DK is the fourth-highest in the slate. Facing the team that gave up a league-high eight receiving touchdowns to running backs last year, White should still get enough work as a receiver to reach value.
WR – Julian Edelman
A key member of the short-intermediate passing game, Edelman averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game. With Gronkowski out, Edelman was the team’s go-to receiver in Week 1, as he secured all seven of his targets for a team-high 22.22 percent target share. There is always the fear that if Gronk returns in Week 2 he could eat into Edelman’s production, as he historically has (via RotoViz).
But if Edelman serves as the No. 1 receiving option in Week 2, he has a good chance of approximating Doug Baldwin‘s Week 1 stat line of 9-92-1 on 11 targets against Miami.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan’s long touchdown came off a busted coverage, but he did see a 13.89% percent arget share in Week 1 and play on 77 percent of the offensive snaps. For reference: Mitchell and Amendola played on just 55 and 27 percent of the snaps. The Patriots used three-wide receiver sets on 41 of 71 offensive snaps in Week 1 as a result of Gronk’s absence. Hogan could in theory become a version of 2014 Brandon LaFell in this offense and could have upside as a GPP flyer against Miami if Gronk is inactive once again.
WR – Danny Amendola
Amendola does not have any consistent standalone value with Edelman healthy. He got four targets in Week 1 but gained 32 of his 48 yards on one play. He’s a low-floor DFS play with a limited ceiling.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
After missing last week with a hamstring injury, Gronkowski still has an $8,700 salary on FD, but his DK salary has dropped $500 to $6900. If he plays, he might be limited in a game that the Patriots should probably be able to win without him.
TE – Martellus Bennett
With all the struggles on the offensive line, Bennett was used sparingly in the passing game, running just 26 routes on 34 passing plays in Week 1. In the CSURAM88 Model, Bennett has the worst rating of any DK tight end.
News Updates
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