The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
With Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and C.J. Stroud in primetime matchups, the two big-name QBs at the top of all the projections this week are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. In Chris Rayon’s and THE BLITZ projections, Jackson’s median and ceiling projections are slightly higher, while Sean Koerner gives Mahomes a slight edge in those two categories. While both have great upside in favorable matchups, Jackson seems like the stronger play to me this week, partly because his ownership projection of around 5% is about a third of Mahomes’ ownership projection, making Jackson a good source of pay-up leverage.
Jackson exceeded salary-based expectations in Week 1 against Mahomes and the Chiefs, totaling 29.12 DraftKings points by throwing for 273 yards and a touchdown and running for an impressive 122 yards on 16 carries.
After that big workload, Jackson took Monday off of practice but does not have any injury designation for this week.
He should be in a good spot to put up another big game and get his Ravens their first win of the season at home against the Raiders. In Week 1, Vegas allowed 22 points to the Chargers’ run-heavy attack but did give up a passing touchdown late. They blitzed the Bolts on 12 of 27 dropbacks in Week 1, and Jackson often turns blitz-heavy opponents into big rushing opportunities. Against the Chiefs, they scrambled on nine of the Chiefs’ 13 blitzes and totaled 76 rushing yards on those nine runs. If the Raiders keep blitzing so much, Jackson could put up one of the top QB performances on the slate.
Jackson is the most expensive QB on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but his ceiling and low ownership projection make him a strong place to start building your Week 2 rosters.
Top Value: Justin Fields at Denver Broncos – $5,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Like at the ceiling spot for quarterbacks in Week 2, two names pop in the projections as value plays as well–Justin Fields of the Steelers and rookie Jayden Daniels of the Commanders. I wrote about Daniels in my early values this week, and I still think he makes a great play, but Fields shows slightly better in an evenly-blended, three-way aggregated projection of Koerner’s, Raybon’s, and THE BLITZ projections.
Fields has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on DraftKings in that blend, along with the highest Pts/Sal. On FanDuel, he’s not quite as cheap, but he still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and offers significant savings compared to Daniels.
Starting in place of the injured Russell Wilson (calf), Fields led the Steelers to a win in Week 1, totaling 156 passing yards by completing 17-of-23 pass attempts and adding on 57 rushing yards on 14 carries. He only finished with 11.9 DraftKings points since there were no touchdowns involved, but he showed enough to merit attention if he starts against the Broncos.
In Week 1, the Broncos lost to Seattle and allowed Geno Smith to put up 18.8 DraftKings points. Smith ran for a score and threw for a score, and since Fields generally brings more rushing potential, he should be able to find a way to return value Sunday.
Fields is a strong value, but he also brings a very high ceiling if things go his way. In fact, he has the third-highest ceiling projection of all quarterbacks in THE BLITZ projections behind only Jackson and Mahomes, even though there are 16 starting quarterbacks with higher salaries.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Breece Hall at Tennessee Titans – $7,400 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Hall has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections of all running backs on the main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to the aggregate projections.
He is the priciest back on FanDuel and has the second-highest running back salary on DraftKings. Despite his high salary, though, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all running backs on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
In Week 1, Hall and the Jets lost to the 49ers on Monday Night Football, but the encouraging thing for Breece and his backers was his volume in the new-look offense under Aaron Rodgers. Hall had 16 of the Jets’ 19 rushing attempts in Week 1 and caught five of six targets to finish with 54 rushing yards, 39 receiving yards, and a rushing touchdown. He exceeded salary-based expectations with 19.3 DraftKings points and 15.8 FanDuel points to produce one of the better running back totals, even though his team’s offense didn’t really get going and didn’t run that many plays.
The volume as both rusher and receiver should give Hall plenty of opportunities to break off big plays against the Titans in Week 2. Tennessee’s run defense was solid in Week 1, but the fact that he’s lined up for so much work in what should be a more favorable game script makes him the top ceiling running back to target in Week 2.
Top Value: Jordan Mason at Minnesota Vikings – $5,200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Since Week 2 salaries came out before Monday Night Football last week, Mason is still priced as a backup for Christian McCaffrey (Achilles/calf). McCaffrey could return and force him back to that role, but he showed how good he can be as the feature back after stepping in for CMC last week after he was surprisingly unable to play against the Jets.
Assuming McCaffrey misses another week, Mason projects as an elite value play. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in all three of the projections used in this preview by a wide margin on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Against the Jets, the third-year back from Georgia Tech ran for 147 yards on 28 carries and tacked on a five-yard catch on his only target. He totaled an impressive 25.2 DraftKings points against a Jets defense expected to be pretty solid this season.
This week, he gets a matchup against the Vikings, who were good against the run last year and allowed only 74 yards on 21 carries in Week 1. However, that was against the Giants, who looked awful on offense overall, meaning the Vikings haven’t really been tested.
If he gets another start, Mason offers too much value to ignore. He will be extremely chalky at this salary, though, so if you want some alternatives around the same price, check out Brian Robinson of the Commanders, J.K. Dobbins of the Chargers, or Zack Moss of the Bengals.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb vs. New Orleans Saints – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Lamb got a huge contract before Week 1, but he had an underwhelming season debut against a tough Browns secondary. Our projections all like him to have a big bounce-back in Week 2 at home against the Saints.
He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all wide receivers on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the three-way aggregate projections. He also looks like he’ll be a solid source of leverage as well with an ownership projection of barely over 10%.
Lamb finished with only five catches for 61 yards in Week 1, but the game script could not have gone much less in his favor. The Cowboys opened a multiple-score lead early and cruised to a comfortable win, but he still drew 10 targets. The fact that he got so much attention despite the situation and the matchup is a great sign for his future production.
This week, he’ll come home and take on the Saints in what should be a favorable matchup for Lamb to get back on track. Last year at home, Lamb averaged 9.1 catches for 119.4 receiving yards per game while scoring eight touchdowns in eight home games.
He and Dak Prescott should have a good chance to celebrate their new deals in their first game at home this season as they look to improve to 2-0 on the season.
Top Value: Tyler Johnson at Arizona Cardinals – $3,300 on DraftKings, $4,000 on FanDuel
As is often the case with value picks, at receiver this week, it’s all about increased opportunity. The biggest injury news at the position coming into Week 2 is that Puka Nacua (knee) landed on IR, vacating plenty of targets for the rest of the Rams. Cooper Kupp has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the blended projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings but also has very high ownership projections. Tyler Johnson projects to be the best low-cost value this week as he also steps into a bigger role.
Sticking with the blended projections, Johnson has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel of all receivers and the highest of all options under $6,000. On DraftKings, he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
While filling in for Nacua in Week 1, Johnson finished with five catches on seven targets for 79 yards and 12.9 DraftKings points in Week 1. While Kupp had a team-high 21 targets, Johnson tied with Demarcus Robinson ($4,000) for the second-most targets on the team, playing ahead of Tutu Atwell ($3,700) and Jordan Whittington ($3,500).
Johnson has huge upside in this matchup against the Cardinals, who will focus most of their defense on shutting down Kupp. Getting him at this salary can be the key to unlocking the space to pay up for Lamb or other studs you want to build around.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Kelce holds the top ceiling projection in Koerner’s, Raybon’s, and THE BLITZ projections this week, even though he doesn’t have the highest tight end salary on DraftKings or FanDuel. He had a mediocre start to the season by his lofty standards, but he should be set up for a good bounce-back week against the Bengals in Week 2.
Last year during the regular season, the Bengals allowed more receptions to opposing tight ends than any other team in the NFL. They only allowed 15 completions in Week 1, but four were to tight ends.
Kelce has tormented the Bengals in the past and should get plenty of attention from Mahomes after his quiet Week 1. He’s not an every-week lock in the top spot as he has been in recent years, but he still has a better ceiling this week than Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride, who have joined him as top-tier options on a regular basis.
Top Value: Colby Parkinson at Arizona Cardinals – $3,100 on DraftKings, $4,800 on FanDuel
Another potential beneficiary of Nacua’s absence over the next few weeks is new Rams TE Colby Parkinson. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on DraftKings in the blended projections and the highest of all tight end options under $6,000 on FanDuel.
Parkinson had a strong Rams debut with four catches on five targets for 47 yards. He was much more involved than Davis Allen ($2,800), who only had one target. He should stay very involved over the next few weeks while Tyler Higbee (knee) remains sidelined.
The Cardinals have been a great matchup for tight ends over the last few years, so Parkinson has great upside at a very reasonable salary, especially on DraftKings, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating.
Other cheap tight ends with strong projections include Hayden Hurst of the Chargers, Theo Johnson of the Giants, and Jordan Akins of the Browns, who will be stepping up to fill in for David Njoku (ankle).
