The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Two names stand out at the top of the quarterback ceiling projections this week–Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Neither was on the main slate last week and both underperformed based on salary-based expectations as their teams lost as Week 1 favorites.
One of the main reasons that I like Allen to have a better bounceback game is that he’s expected to be in a better game environment at home against the Raiders. That game has a 47-point total, and since the Bills are significant favorites, they have the highest implied team total on the slate. The second reason I prefer Allen this week is that I trust his pass-catchers and playmakers much more than I trust Mahomes’ limited options.
Allen completed 70.7% of his passes against the tough Jets’ defense in Week 1, totaling 236 yards through the air and throwing for a touchdown. His big problem, though, was that he continued to be plagued by turnovers. He threw three interceptions and also lost a fumble. He only had 13.04 DraftKings points and 12.04 FanDuel points.
Using a 50/50 blend of THE BLITZ and Fantasy Labs projections, Allen has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any QB on the slate. He’s especially cost-effective on DraftKings, where he is actually priced below Mahomes.
Allen will face the Raiders, who will be playing on the road for the second straight week. Last week, they gave up 177 passing yards and two passing scores in their win in Denver. They had the sixth-worst defensive DVOA in Week 1, and last year they had the fourth-worst DVOA.
While Allen’s turnover issues are concerning long-term for the bills, he should be able to put up a big fantasy point total in this matchup and have a bounce-back performance.
Top Value: Ryan Tannehill vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
Another QB lined up for a bounce-back week, according to the models, is Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. In Week 1, Tannehill and the Titans lost on the road to the Saints, and like Allen, Tannehill struggled with turnovers, throwing three picks. He started extremely slow, connecting on just 5-of-14 passes in the first half, and he finished 16-of-34 for 198 passing yards and only 5.4 DraftKings points and 5.4 FanDuel points.
Tannehill is the only other quarterback besides Allen with a positive Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings this week using the 50-50 blended projections. On FanDuel, he’s a little less of a discount but still has a Projected Plus/Minus in the top eight at the position.
Part of Tannehill’s slow start could have been that he’s working with a new receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins was targeted on 38.2% of Tannehill’s pass attempts and finished with seven catches for 65 yards. As the two get more comfortable, Tannehill’s completion percentage should go up.
Second-year receiver Treylon Burks and second-year tight end Chig Okonkwo both have a high ceiling if Tannehill can get them more involved as well. It will be worth keeping an eye on the injury status of Hopkins, who missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle issue.
The main reason Tannehill gets such a boost in the Models this week is his excellent matchup at home against the Chargers. The Chargers secondary was absolutely torched by the Dolphins in Week 1, giving up the most DraftKings and FanDuel points to the position and ranking at the bottom of just about every meaningful defensive category against the pass.
They probably aren’t quite as bad as they looked in Week 1, but they should still be a great bounce-back spot for Tannehill, who typically puts up better numbers at home and against soft defenses.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at Los Angeles Rams – $8,900 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
He may be an obvious pick this week, but Christian McCaffrey is in a beautiful smash spot against the Rams this week and is by far the best running back to build around if you can work your salary cap around his hefty price tag. He’s the most expensive play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he also has the highest ceiling projection in both THE BLITZ and FantasyLabs projections by a wide margin.
He also has the highest median and floor projections, so barring an injury, he should be poised to deliver. On DraftKings, he matches a slate-high nine Pro Trends while no other running back matches more than seven, and on FanDuel, he matches 13 Pro Trends with no other running back matching more than eight.
McCaffrey led the 49ers to a big road win in Week 1 against the Steelers with 22 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown while adding three catches for 17 more yards. He finished with 28.9 DraftKings points and 24.4 FanDuel points to exceed salary-based expectations by wide margins on both sites.
The dynamic back is clearly the focus of San Francisco’s offense, and they’ll look to continue to get him as many touches as possible in this matchup against the Rams, who held the Seattle run game in check in Week 1, partly because the Rams jumped out to a big early lead. They’ll have their work cut out for them trying to hold CMC in check on Sunday.
Coming into the year, fantasy players dreamed of how good McCaffrey could be in coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense for a full season, and so far, the season is going according to the script for him reaching his sky-high ceiling.
Top Value: David Montgomery vs. Seattle Seahawks – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
There was a lot of deserved hype around rookie Jahmyr Gibbs coming into the year, but at least in Week 1, it was the Lions’ other off-season addition, David Montgomery, that assumed the bigger workload. Montgomery is projected to build on that success in Week 2. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both FanDuel and DraftKings using the 50/50 blended projections.
Montgomery played 78.6% of the Lions’ snaps in Week 1 compared to just 27.1% for Gibbs. Montgomery out-touched the rookie 21-to-9, although Gibbs was more involved in the passing game. Depending on the game script, Gibbs could be a good value play as well, but Montgomery showed he can still produce in the right scenario, and he should be in a good spot against the Seahawks.
The matchup with Seattle has the second-highest total of the week with an over/under of 47.5. The Seahawks were crushed by the Rams in Week 1, and they allowed three rushing touchdowns and 81 yards on the ground to opposing running backs. Their team defense DVOA was the third-worst in the NFL in Week 1, so there are lots of options on the Lions who should be good options, led by Montgomery in his role as the top running back.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Seattle Seahawks – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Also, in that tasty matchup against Seattle, Amon-Ra St. Brown has the second-highest ceiling projection at wide receiver on both FanDuel and DraftKings, using the 50/50 blended projections. He also ranks in the top five on both sites in projected Plus/Minus.
The third-year receiver out of USC had a good start to the year with six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown in the Lions’ upset of the Chiefs on Thursday night. He had a team-high nine targets and converted his only red zone target into a touchdown. His production was almost exactly in line with his averages from last season, 6.6 receptions on 9.1 targets with an average of 72.6 receiving yards per game.
The Seahawks gave up over 100 yards to both Puca Nacua and Tutu Atwell in Week 1, so both St. Brown and Josh Reynolds could be great options this week. I highlighted Reynolds as my favorite value play in my Early Look at Week 2 and think you can build a nice lineup around a Lions stack in what should be a high-scoring game on the turf in Detroit.
Top Value: Puka Nacua vs. San Francisco 49ers – $4,900 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
No one had a bigger fantasy breakout in Week 1 than Rams’ rookie receiver Puka Nacua. The fifth-rounder out of BYU caught 10 of his NFL-leading 15 targets and totaled 119 yards. He far outpaced salary-based expectations even though he didn’t get into the End Zone.
In the 50/50 blended projections, Nacua has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. Nacua will likely remain the top option for Matthew Stafford in Week 2 since Cooper Kupp (hamstring) remains on IR. Stafford’s focus made Kupp a weekly fixture in fantasy lineups, and if he continues to key in on Nacua, he should be a PPR beast.
One thing to keep an eye on is that Nacua missed Thursday’s practice with an oblique issue. If he’s unable to play, Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson would both get huge boosts, with Atwell becoming one of the best values on the board.
The 49ers defense looked great in Week 1 in Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be plenty of volume for Nacua. If San Francisco shuts down the run game like they did last week, it could mean even more dump-offs and plenty of catches for Nacua. Since his Week 1 breakout is part of his new role, it isn’t fluky, and he should be poised to continue his hot start to his rookie year.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Injury questions abound at the top of the tight end salary structure for Sunday. Assuming both Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are able to return, they should return as the top two ceiling options. Based on their matchups, Kelce leads the way in both THE BLITZ and FantasyLabs projections for this Sunday.
Kelce’s absence was definitely felt by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last Thursday. His injury originally happened last Wednesday, just the day before Kansas City’s season opener, so he has had significant recovery time, with 10 days to recover instead of just one.
When healthy, Kelce is unmatched at the position in terms of volume and ceiling. He tore up Jacksonville for 98 yards and two touchdowns on 14 catches in last year’s playoff matchup, so if he’s healthy, he’s worth paying up for at tight end in this rematch.
Top Value: Luke Musgrave at Atlanta Falcons – $3,200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, no tight end comes close to matching Luke Mugrave’s value. The rookie tight end has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest points per $1,000 of salary at the position on DraftKings by a significant margin. Musgrave has an 84% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, which definitely demands attention. On FanDuel, Musgrave is a little more expensive but still brings the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus.
In his debut, Musgrave played 75% of the Packers’ offensive snaps and grabbed 3-of-4 targets for 50 receiving yards. He could have easily added a touchdown as well if he hadn’t fallen down on a relatively routine reception. Musgrave led all tight ends in aDOT (average depth of target) in Week 1, which gives him a high ceiling since he’s running deep routes.
Especially with Christian Watson trending towards missing a second straight game, Musgrave should get plenty of attention from Jordan Love against the Falcons. In Week 1, Atlanta’s defense only gave up one touchdown to the Panthers, but it was to a tight end. The Falcons ended up allowing six catches for 43 yards to the position.
Musgrave and Love should continue to build their chemistry in this Week 2 matchup, and I think the rookie could be one of the top producers at the position. Getting him at such a bargain makes him a key piece to build around in Week 2, so you can spend up on Josh Allen, CMC, or other high-priced options with high ceilings.
