The Player Models and tools are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 2 NFL slate. We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Tom Brady vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,900 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Tom Brady’s matchup against the Atlanta Falcons has all the workings for a 75th-percentile outcome from the future hall-of-famer. The Falcons rank last in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA and grade out as the third-worst defense, according to PFF. In a Week 1 31-29 win over the Dallas Cowboys, Brady threw for 379 yards, going 32-for-50 with four touchdowns.
The Buccaneers have a plethora of stacking options at their disposal led by Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Specifically, targeting Gronkowski might be a starting point in your roster construction. Dating back to last season, Gronk has the highest correlation among the receiving corps at 0.47. Gronk was targeted eight times in a Week 1 31-29 win over the Dallas Cowboys, catching eight passes for two touchdowns.
Top Value: Justin Herbert vs. Dallas Cowboys – $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
A talking point from the past season involves targeting the Dallas Cowboys defense, and at $6,700 on DraftKings, Justin Herbert opens plenty of options as salary relief. In a 20-16 win over the Washington Football Team in Week 1, Herbert went 31-for-47, throwing for 327 yards and one touchdown. According to PFF, he should benefit from facing a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranks as the ninth-worst defense, which will be without lead pass rusher Demarcus Lawrence for the foreseeable future.
Playing in the highest total on the slate at 55.5-points, look for Herbert to distribute the ball to Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jared Cook, who combined for 33 targets and more than receiving 200 yards in Week 1. Per the Trends tool, when playing in a game with a 50-point total or higher, Herbert has averaged 25 actual DraftKings points, with a +6.20 Plus/Minus rating.
Top Rostered: Dak Prescott vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Dak Prescott looks to be a trendy choice for rosters this week, playing opposite to Justin Herbert in the highest total on the slate. Facing a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense in Week 1, Prescott threw for 403 yards and three touchdowns and should have an easier matchup against a Chargers defense ranking 20th in DVOA.
Prescott focuses on a receiving corps of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz. The trio all saw five or more targets and can be stacked in various configurations, either as a primary stack, a bring-back piece with Herbert, or a correlated piece to the Chargers offense. With Michael Gallup on the IR, Cedrick Wilson should see additional targets, and with a 3.5% projection ownership and a 90.59 rating in the Koerner Model, the wideout looks to be a unique stacking option.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. New Orleans Saints – $9,900 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
For the second consecutive week, Christian McCaffrey takes the top spot for Ceiling Projection in our models. In a 19-14 win over the New York Jets, McCaffrey rushed for 98 yards on 21 attempts, averaging 4.67 yards per carry. On top of his volume in carries, McCaffrey consistently remains a pass-catching option and was targeted nine times, catching nine passes for 89 yards.
Despite facing a New Orleans Saints defense that ranks seventh in DVOA, McCaffrey can be considered virtually matchup proof. In two meetings against the Saints in the 2019-20 season, McCaffrey averaged 28.55 actual DraftKings points with a +3.22 Plus/Minus. Currently projected to see 6.8% ownership, McCaffrey should be considered a spend-up option with a high upside.
Top Value: Najee Harris vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $6,300 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
This week’s talk around the industry centered around rookie running back Najee Harris playing 100% of the Steelers’ snaps in a Week 1 23-16 win over the Buffalo Bills. Harris rushed for 45 yards on 16 attempts, averaging 2.81 yards per carry, leading the Steeler with a 76% share of the workload in the backfield.
With a projected high volume of touches, facing a Las Vegas Raiders defense that ranks 21st in DVOA, Harris should easily reach fantasy relevance, especially if he finds his way into the end zone. Last week Harris had one attempt inside the five-yard line but failed to convert, rushing for a two-yard loss.
Top Rostered: Chris Carson vs. Tennessee Titans – $6,100 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson ranks as the top projected owned running back for Week 2 in a matchup with a 53.5-point total against the Tennessee Titans.
Week 2 looks to be a prime matchup for Carson, who led the team with a 59% share of carries last week, averaging 5.56 yards per carry against an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranked 22nd in PFF run offense and 19th in defensive DVOA. As a 6.5-point favorite, the Seahawks will likely use Carson to run out the clock if they are ahead in the fourth quarter. However, Carson could provide an attractive bring-back option if stacking the Titans, signaling Tennessee might lean toward a more pass-heavy play script.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Stefon Diggs vs. Miami Dolphins – $7,700 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
A key piece to the Buffalo Bills’ high-powered offense, Stefon Diggs projects to have the highest ceiling in a Week 2 matchup with the Miami Dolphins. The preferred target for quarterback Josh Allen, Diggs was responsible for 29% of the Bills’ targets, averaging 9.19 yards per target. Facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, Diggs caught nine passes for 69 yards, responsible for a team-leading 28% share of targets.
Diggs faces a Miami defense ranking 14th in DVOA and should factor into the Bills’ tendency to run plays at a lightning-fast pace. In Week 1, Buffalo ran a play on average every 22 seconds, the 10th-fastest of the week. With the pass-heavy tendencies of Allen, Diggs has tremendous upside to reach a 75th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Donovan Peoples-Jones vs. Houston Texans – $3,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
With Odell Beckham Jr. ruled out for Sunday’s matchup with the Houston Texans with a knee injury, expect an increase in targets to Donovan Peoples-Jones. In a 33-29 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Peoples-Jones was targeted once for four yards, a disappointing performance for those who late swapped from Beckham before the 4 p.m. Eastern games, with Anthony Schwartz seeing the bulk of targets alongside Jarvis Landry.
The Browns receiving corps faces a Houston Texans defense ranked 21st by PFF, allowing 332 yards through the air in a Week 1 37-21 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the third-most on the week. With a minimum price tag on DraftKings, Peoples-Jones gives lineups a risky salary-relief option that appears to be target-dependent.
Top Rostered: Cooper Kupp vs. Indianapolis Colts – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Cooper Kupp has emerged as the likely favorite weapon for quarterback Matthew Stafford. In a Week 1 34-14 win over the Chicago Bears, Kupp was targeted 10 times, catching seven passes with one touchdown, leading the team with a 38% target share.
Kupp faces an Indianapolis Colts defense that struggled to contain Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw for 254 yards and four touchdowns. With the Colts grading out as the 10th-worst passing defense according to PFF and ranks 19th in defensive DVOA, Kupp has good reason to be popular this week, especially with the likelihood of reaching the 100-yard receiving DraftKings Bonus. Our projections have Kupp catching 5.7 passes for 71 yards.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Darren Waller vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Without Travis Kelce on the main slate, the ever-volatile tight-end position is limited. Las Vegas Raiders tight-end Darren Waller ranks as the top projected in our models. In a Week 1 33-27 overtime win over the Baltimore Ravens, Derek Carr targeted Waller 19 times, catching 10 passes for 105 yards and one touchdown, leading the team with 36% of the target share.
Expect a tough matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense ranked third by PFF, but if Waller continues to lead the team in targets, he will quickly reach a ceiling outcome. With the Steelers currently a 6-point favorite, Waller gives lineups a perfect correlation to Najee Harris, who the Steelers should use to run to the clock if leading toward the end of the game.
Top Value: Tyler Higbee vs. Indianapolis Colts – $4,100 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Rams’ tight end Tyler Higbee should see a similar volume to Week 1, where he was targeted six times, catching five passes for 68 yards.
Like his counterpart in the receiving corps Cooper Kupp, Higbee should benefit from the pass-heavy tendencies of Matthew Stafford, who used a 57%/43% pass-to-run split and can be double-stacked given the projected volume. Lineups using Higbee may want to find leverage elsewhere, with the tight end projected to as the most popular option with 21% projected ownership.
Top Rostered: Noah Fant vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,200 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
With Tyler Higbee seeing the most projected ownership among tight ends, Noah Fant appears to be the second-most popular option, projected for 17% ownership. In a Week 1 27-13 win over the New York Giants, Fant was targeted eight times, catching six passes for 62 yards, leading the team with a 22% target share.
Week 2’s matchup looks to be a prime spot for Fant and the Broncos. According to Football Outsiders, the Jaguars rank 29th in Defensive DVOA and 25th in pass coverage according to PFF, allowing 289 passing yards to Houston Texans. With wide receiver Jerry Jeudy on the IR with an ankle injury, Fant should see additional looks, alongside Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler as preferred targets for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
