Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Travis Kelce ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Kelce is coming off his worst regular season in nearly a decade, and at nearly 35 yards old, it was the first time in ages that he wasn’t the slam-dunk No. 1 tight end in fantasy drafts. Guys like Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride were coming for his crown, while veterans like Mark Andrews and George Kittle were also in the mix. Instead of having a true No. 1 at the position, it felt like there was more of a “top tier” this season.
Kelce didn’t shake off a ton of those questions in Week 1. He finished with just three catches for 34 yards, and he didn’t find the end zone. It’s the type of production we saw way too often at the end of the regular season last year, with Kelce averaging just 4.9 receptions and 50.1 yards over his final eight contests.
Still, there were a couple of positives to take away. For starters, Kelce had a route participation of 84% in Week 1. That was slightly higher than his mark from last season, and it paints an optimistic picture of his outlook moving forward. He might have a bit more competition for targets than he has in the past few seasons, but he’s at least still on the field and in the pattern at an elite rate.
With his chemistry with Patrick Mahomes, better weeks should follow. It could start as early as this week vs. the Bengals, who allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends last season.
Ultimately, Kelce is still getting plenty of respect in our NFL Models. He owns the top ceiling and median projections at the position, and he’s the leader in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus as well. He’s No. 3 in that department on DraftKings, trailing only a couple of value options in Colby Parkinson and Hayden Hurst.
Colby Parkinson ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Speaking of Parkinson, he’s the preferred value option at the position. He’s in a very rosier situation than Hurst, who is stuck catching passes from Bryce Young. Parkinson is playing with Matthew Stafford in a game that has the second-highest total of the week.
Parkinson also benefits from the Rams’ current injury situation. They were already without starting tight end Tyler Higbee, and they lost Puka Nacua in Week 1. That leaves the Rams without two of their top three pass-catchers from last year.
Without Higbee last week, Parkinson ran a route on 82% of Stafford’s dropbacks, and he was on the field for 88% of plays. He managed just a 10% target share, but that still resulted in a respectable five targets. We’ve seen Higbee have strong performances as the Rams’ starting tight end in the past, so it’s reasonable to expect the same from Parkinson.
At his current price tag across the industry, he doesn’t need much to potentially return value vs. the Cardinals. Arizona was 31st in dropback EPA defensively in Week 1, so it’s a matchup where the Rams’ passing attack has plenty of intrigue.
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Trey McBride ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
On the other side of that contest, McBride picked up right where he left off in Week 1. Despite the team adding Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 pick in the draft, McBride was Kyler Murray’s favorite target in Week 1. He racked up nine looks vs. the Bills, resulting in a 30% target share.
Unfortunately, McBride only managed to haul in five passes for 30 yards, but the upside is there for bigger performances moving forward. The Bills were one of the toughest matchups in fantasy for opposing tight ends last season, but the Rams allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to the position.
Kelce still gets the edge in our projections at the top of the pricing spectrum, but it’s very reasonable to pivot to McBride. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where he comes at a -$1,200 discount. He has the top optimal rate at the position on FanDuel using SimLabs, though it does come with the highest ownership projection.
Brock Bowers ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Bowers was a bit of a surprise draft pick by the Raiders, who already had a young tight end on their roster in Michael Mayer. However, the Raiders clearly believe in Bowers’ abilities, and that was evident in their Week 1 game plan. Bowers finished with a 23% target share, which was the top mark on the squad. It was even better than the mark for Davante Adams, and it ranked as the third-best mark by any tight end in Week 1. Only McBride and Isaiah Likely posted higher figures.
If Bowers is going to see that kind of usage moving forward, he’s undoubtedly too cheap across the industry. He has the second-best optimal rate on DraftKings, trailing only Kelce.
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Mark Andrews ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Things could not have gone much worse for Andrews in Week 1. Not only did he have a poor game, finishing with just two targets, two catches, and 14 yards, but his backup went absolutely nuclear. Likely racked up nine catches, 111 yards, and a touchdown, and he nearly added a second score at the end of regulation. If not for his shoe size being half a toe too large, it would’ve been an even bigger performance for a player who was barely on the TE radar for fantasy purposes.
Does that mean it’s time to hit the panic button on Andrews? I’m not there yet. Despite Likely’s gaudy stat line, Andrews was still the guy who ran the most routes at the position for the Ravens. The Chiefs made taking him away a focal point of their defense, so they pivoted to their other pass-catchers.
It remains to be seen if the Raiders will employ the same strategy. At a minimum, they’re certainly not going to be caught off guard by Likely after last week’s performance. Andrews becomes an intriguing GPP flyer vs. the Raiders, while Likely is a prime fade candidate.
Sam LaPorta ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
LaPorta is in the top tight end group for fantasy purposes, but he didn’t show it in Week 1. He finished with just five targets vs. the Rams, and he finished with just 8.5 DraftKings points.
That said, it’s possible that the Rams just have his number. These two teams met in the playoffs last year, and LaPorta had just three targets in that contest. He proceeded to rack up 24 total targets over the Lions’ next two playoff contests, so it’s possible that he bounces back in Week 2. His matchup vs. the Buccaneers is definitely a good one, with this game possessing the highest total on the slate by a wide margin.
The biggest detriment with LaPorta is his salary, particularly on FanDuel. He’s the most expensive tight end by a comfortable margin, checking in $500 more expensive than Kelce and $1,700 more than McBride.
That’s not ideal for cash games, but it could end up being a positive for tournaments. The lofty price tag should keep LaPorta’s ownership low, but he still has the sixth-highest optimal rate at the position.
Taysom Hill ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Hill is one of the most frustrating players in all of fantasy. You know that most weeks when you roster him, you’re going to get a whole lot of nothing. That was the case last week when he finished with 4.6 DraftKings points on two targets, five rushing attempts, and 36 total yards.
Still, you also know that there will be at least one week this season where he breaks the slate. He did that in Week 8 last season, scoring 22 fantasy points to finish as the highest-scoring tight end.
My strategy with Hill is to try and sprinkle him whenever he’s not expected to be popular. He’s currently projected for just 1% ownership on DraftKings and 2.8% on FanDuel, so he checks that box in Week 2.
