I started playing DFS on DraftStreet in 2013. For the next six years, I primarily played cash games because I was in love with the slow, methodical grind, along with the safety that comes from playing a format where you only have to beat one other person or roughly half the field if you’re in 50/50s or double-ups.
Nowadays, I’ve decided to pull the ripcord on the safety net so that I could seek out more upside.
The hardest part of switching to GPP only? Getting comfortable with losing … a lot more often. However, with proper game selection and bankroll management, all you need is one or two nice scores to be in the black when the season ends.
And when you’re mainly targeting small-field GPPs, your lineups don’t need to be as perfect compared to when you’re entering these larger fields. Personally, I consider a small field as a tournament with 500 or fewer people, but some DFS players may have a broader definition.
And typically, I am playing in tournaments with 300 or fewer people.
Anyway, each week I’ll be using our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools and the FantasyLabs Player Models to discuss my overall strategy for how I’m attacking these smaller fields.
General Strategy
My overall strategy for these formats is quite simple: I try to game stack as much as possible.
This strategy can give you unique builds compared to the field, where some players may just be throwing their cash lineups (or a slightly different variation) into them because there aren’t many people competing — or they’re simply not stacking enough in their lineups.
This strategy typically lands you on high-total games because that’s where we’d expect the most points to be scored. Naturally, high-total games come with higher projected ownership on certain players. However, since we are trying to game stack, it’s still possible to have unique builds, and we can still insert other one-off plays to differentiate our lineups.
You don’t need a whole lineup of contrarian plays to win a small-field tournament. I also tend to rely on the Ceiling Projections instead of Median Projections when I am making my lineup decisions.
Also, keep in mind the projected ownership levels in the models are geared toward large-field GPPs, so there is some guesswork on estimating ownership projections for smaller fields. Although, small-field single-entry tournaments typically resemble cash builds, so it doesn’t involve too much guesswork.
Note: I play these small-field tournaments on DraftKings, so that’s what this analysis will focus on.
Games I’m Targeting
Dallas Cowboys (25.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (29)
You’re not sneaking this game past anyone as it has a slate-high 54.5 total. My strategy for this game is quite simple. I’m either fully sacking it with at least five players, or I am going to try and fade most of it, pending how roster construction pans out.
I don’t really care that many individual players project to be highly rostered because few people might actually stack five guys — or more — onto their team. It’s quite easy to triple stack Justin Herbert with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Jared Cook if you want to.
Those three players combined for a 78% target share last week against Washington. And while Cook’s overall target share was 19%, he was targeted on eight of his 30 pass routes, equating to a 26% target share on his routes run.
I understand the hesitancy to stack that many players, but if we’re expecting this to be high-scoring, why not try to collect as many touchdowns as possible? I’m not trying to min-cash these tournaments; I want to ship it.
My favorite way to correlate the triple stack is with a CeeDee Lamb + Amari Cooper bring-back. Lamb and Cooper combined for 54% of Dak Prescott’s target share in Week 1 vs. Tampa, and they both correlate with each other:
Plugging in Lamb and Cooper gives you exposure to Prescott without having to roster him.
If you’re looking to leverage just certain parts of this game, you’re probably best off targeting Austin Ekeler. He has a solid Leverage Rating in our models and a single-digit Ownership Projection.
Again, I’m either stacking this entire game as much as I can or likely avoiding it entirely.
Tennessee Titans (23.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (30)
This game has similar characteristics to the Browns-Chiefs game that I mentioned last week. It features a high total and has low or moderate ownership projections on most players.
One of the great features of our Player Models is that you can apply different weights to our NFL projections from some of our partners to create an aggregate set to your specifications (you can also upload your own):
When I make my inputs, the Seahawks rate out really well in our Leverage Rating metric, a metric that compares projected ownership with the player’s Ceiling Projection. Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett all have strong Leverage Ratings in our models for this slate.
Despite being the second most expensive quarterback on the slate, Wilson is still a solid value with the second-highest Ceiling Projection and a top-five Projected Plus/Minus.
That said, even though our NFL Correlation Dashboard shows that a WR1 and WR2 can have a positive correlation together, Lockett and Metcalf have a strong negative correlation, as Lockett’s correlation with Metcalf is -0.44. And if you look at past game logs, they rarely have ceiling games together. Russ makes sense as a single stack with either one of those receivers.
A.J. Brown or Julio Jones are the ideal bring-backs. Both players have solid Leverage Ratings, but Brown is my preferred option at $6,900 because he’s a direct pivot off Amari Cooper at $6,800.
One-Off Plays
Despite the high ownership projection, I’ll still try to get exposure to Najee Harris. I don’t mind eating the chalk at the running back position in tournaments. These players are chalk for a reason — they’re good plays.
If I am loaded up on receivers, Nick Chubb might be hard to squeeze in, but he’s strong play as a huge home favorite vs. the lowly Texans. Chubb has historically averaged 22.78 DraftKings points with a +5.50 Plus/Minus when the Browns are favored by more than six points, per our Trends tool:
Overall, Chubb has a top-eight Leverage Rating among running backs and the fourth-highest Ceiling Projection in my personal model.
If you need a running back on the cheaper side, Chase Edmonds makes sense at $4,900. Billy Ward makes the case for him in his running back breakdown.
I’d also consider Nyheim Hines if you need some salary relief at $4,700. Hines only saw nine carries last week, but he saw eight targets on 23 pass routes, which is an exceptional 35% target share based on his routes run. As 3.5-point dogs to the Rams, I’d like to think the Colts will involve him more in the passing game instead of trying to run at the Rams’ defensive front.
That said, I learned a long time ago there’s a difference between what we think coaches should do vs. what they’ll actually do.
I came close to writing up the Vikings-Cardinals game as a game to target, but I think I prefer certain pieces from it again. Once again, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are going to go under rostered. They are currently projected for under 5% ownership and lead all wide receivers in Leverage Rating. It paid off last week for DFS players who targeted Thielen after he went 9-92-2 on 10 targets.
This wasn’t discussed in the above section, but Mike Williams could be an exception to the fade the Cowboys-Chargers game rule if you’re not stacking it. But that’s if his current ownership projection of under 5% holds. Williams’ 10.0 average depth of target (aDOT) suggests he’s running a different route tree this season. Last season his aDOT was 15.8, per PFF.
Rondale Moore only ran 13 pass routes last week, but when he was out there, the Cardinals wanted to get him the ball. Moore’s five targets on those routes is a whopping 38% target share. Moore owns a Buzz Score of 2.0, so he’s getting very little chatter in the industry right now.
After an $800 price increase and 1-14 outing on two targets, Marquez Callaway should be off most DFS player’s radar. It’s a better spot than last week, and he still has an 81% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Jerry Jeudy accounted for 20% of the Broncos’ target share last season, so his absence will free up some targets on that offense. Tim Patrick now steps into an every-down role against a Jaguars defense that received one of the worst pass coverage grades from PFF.
Jeudy’s absence is also a reason to like Noah Fant. Fant saw a nearly 30% target share on his routes last week after he was targeted eight times on his 27 routes.
Tyler Higbee figures to be popular, but it’s hard to ignore a tight end who saw a 28.5% target share on his 21 routes that he ran in Week 1.
Both of those tight ends figure to be popular this week, but they’re a solid combination of price and ceiling. And remember, you don’t need to be contrarian everywhere to win these small-field tournaments.
If you want a more contrarian option, Kyle Pitts is an excellent option. Billy Ward makes the case for him in his tight end breakdown.
If you’re struggling to get a feel for the slate, we also have some optimizer templates in our Lineup Builder that you can use to see where the raw projections are leaning for stacks:
Pictured above: Mike Williams
Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
