In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 2 Fantasy Rankings (as of Thursday):
- Najee Harris (4th)
- David Montgomery (14th)
- Elijah Mitchell (20th)
- Chase Edmonds (24th)
- Kareem Hunt (31st)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
Najee Harris ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders (47 total)
Harris leads three of our pro’s Player Models on FanDuel, and one on DraftKings. The rookie disappointed from a final score perspective in Week 1, but there were some very encouraging signs. The Steelers ran only 55 offensive plays in a game that Buffalo controlled early (11 less than their average last season).
Even with their first-half deficit, and lack of ball control, Najee saw 16 carries. Crucially, he also saw three targets on 32 Ben Roethlisberger attempts. He was the only running back in the league to play 100% of his team’s snaps in Week 1.
This week, the Steelers are solid favorites against the Raiders. The Raiders were bottom-five against the run last year and allowed Baltimore to run for 189 yards (5.6 yards per carry) last week. Najee should see a bump to both his volume and efficiency this week.
Harris is getting some traction across the industry:
It’s early in the week to be making proclamations like this, but…
If Najee Harris isn’t the highest-owned player this weekend, DFS is broken.
(Hint: DFS is probably broken.)
— JMToWin (@JMToWin) September 15, 2021
While he seems like a smash play to those of us following closely, his poor performance last week might keep a large chunk of the field away from him.
Harris owns a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he’s a fine choice on both sites as he leads all running backs in Pts/Sal on DraftKings as well.
David Montgomery ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) Chicago Bears (-1) vs Cincinnati Bengals (45 total)
Montgomery has quietly balled out since late last season:
David Montgomery weekly fantasy football PPR finishes in his last seven games:
RB6
RB1
RB6
RB2
RB8
RB5
RB8— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 14, 2021
He still seems to be going largely undervalued by the public, being drafted as roughly RB15 heading into the season. He turned in a 100-yard rushing game against a tough Rams defense on only 16 carries Monday night and now gets a far easier draw in the Bengals.
The Bears are only one-point favorites against the Bengals, but they should still have more opportunities to run the ball. Last week, they ran only five offensive plays with the score tied before playing from behind the rest of the way. I’m sure the Bears would like to feed Montgomery more if the game allows it, and this week it should.
My big concern with Montgomery is his lack of a pass-game role. He only saw one target last week, with backup Damien Williams getting five. This will keep Montgomery out of my cash game lineups, but he’s very interesting for tournaments. Two touchdowns and 100 yards on the ground is well within the realm of possibilities this week. Especially with his cheap salary on DraftKings, that would put you on a tournament-winning pace.
Montgomery leads the CSURAM88 Model on DraftKings, where he is fourth in Pts/Sal. His higher salary makes him less attractive on FanDuel, but he still has a positive Projected Plus/Minus there.
Note: Projected Plus/Minus a FantasyLabs metric that compares a player’s (projected) score to the average score for players at that price historically.
Elijah Mitchell ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (50 total)
It’s not often that we see a back get 19 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown and be priced at $5,000 on DraftKings the next week. That’s the situation we find ourselves in with Mitchell, who was thrust into a lead role with fellow rookie Trey Sermon ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), a healthy scratch, and Raheem Mostert going down for the season two carries into the game.
I was expecting both sites, particularly DraftKings, to have him priced higher this week. His low rostership last week likely accounts for some of it. Shout out to the 0.1% of you who played him last week.
This week, he’s sure to be much more popular. As three-point favorites and inexplicably still starting Jimmy G, the Niners will likely keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Sermon will likely be back in the lineup, but Mitchell is the presumed starter. Coach Kyle Shanahan likes to mix up his backs, so Mitchell isn’t a lock to carry the heaviest load.
Given the uncertainty, I’m staying away from Mitchell in cash games. I’ll probably have a mix of both him and Sermon in larger tournaments. Mitchell is better on DraftKings, where he’s the leader of Chris Raybon’s model and fifth in Pts/Sal.
Chase Edmonds ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (51 total)
Edmonds leads multiple Pro Models on DraftKings, where his pass game role works in the full PPR format. Despite splitting snaps 60/48 (not a typo, they played together 8% of the time) with James Conner ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) in Week 1, Edmonds saw all of the running back targets for the Cardinals.
This week, he’s matched up against a Vikings team with the worst Opponent Plus/Minus in the league. They’ve allowed opposing backs to beat salary expectations by a whopping eight points over the last year. Looking at all the factors, we have a running back who gets 100% of his team’s backfield targets on a team with the fifth-highest Vegas total, facing the worst (fantasy) running back defense in the league.
I’d pay somewhere in the $6,000 range on DraftKings for a player who meets that criteria, but Edmonds is only $4,900. Despite not finding the end zone, he put up almost 15 points in a tougher spot in Week 1. He will likely put up a solid score (considering the price) regardless and has a shot at 4-5x his salary if he finds paydirt.
Edmonds is viable in DraftKings cash games if paying down at running back. He’s also a fine tournament play, particularly if the split backfield keeps him off most of the field’s rosters. He’s a bit thinner on FanDuel, where his 11% Bargain Rating and lack of PPR scoring hurts him.
Kareem Hunt ($5,800 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) Cleveland Browns (-12.5) vs. Houston Texans
Hunt is a bit of a conundrum this week. He’s another one of the few players who is outright cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings. However, his receiving role generally makes him more valuable on DraftKings. Running backs as home favorites generally perform better, but Hunt has been better as an underdog with the Browns.
They’re taking on a Texans team that was 29th against both the pass and the run in DVOA last year. This should mean plenty of efficiency for Cleveland skill players. Projecting Hunt’s volume is the real challenge here. The last time the Browns played the Texans, Hunt carried the ball 19 times for over 100 yards. In 10 regular-season games since then, his high in carries was 14.
One way of thinking about this is if the Browns get off to an early lead, they’ll likely alternate Hunt and teammate Nick Chubb ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) since it would be foolish to run Chubb 25+ times. The Browns could easily approach 40 rushes if they dominate this one, meaning Hunt could end up somewhere in the teens. The Browns rarely overwork Chubb.
I have reservations about playing Hunt in cash games, but he’s a potential leverage spot off of Chubb for tournaments. Especially at his cheaper price on FanDuel, where he leads two of our Pro Models.
Other Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Christian McCaffrey ($9,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) Carolina Panthers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (45 total)
Run CMC was right back to his old self in Week 1. He saw nine targets and 21 carries en route to a 27.7 point performance on DraftKings. He did all of that without a touchdown, or three-point bonus, falling just shy at 98 yards rushing. His price is starting to get out of hand, but there’s simply no player with a better chance of a 40 or 50-point game than McCaffrey. The matchup against the Saints isn’t ideal, but he’s averaged 24.9 DraftKings points in six fully healthy games against them in his career.
Nick Chubb ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) Cleveland Browns (-12.5) vs Houston Texans
Chubb has historically outperformed Hunt when the Browns are big favorites:
This week, he also has a higher Bargain Rating on DraftKings compared to Hunt. I may keep my exposure to Hunt on FanDuel, and play Chubb on DraftKings unless rostership projections indicate everyone else is thinking the same thing. That said, Chubb is still an elite play on a touchdown-dependent site like FanDuel.
Dalvin Cook ($9,100 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel) Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Arizona Cardinals (51 total)
Other than McCaffrey, Cook is probably the player most likely to blow the slate up every week. Cook saw a healthy 84% of the Vikings backfield opportunities in Week 1, including seven targets. This week, he’s playing in the game with the third-highest over/under on the slate. The Cardinals defense is solid, but Cook’s talent and opportunity combination is hard to find. He’s a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Alvin Kamara ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers (45 total)
I prefer Kamara to McCaffrey when you factor in price. With Michael Thomas out, he’s far and away the Saints’ most talented skill player. He saw 24 opportunities (carries + targets) in a Week 1 blowout and could potentially see even more if the game remains close.
Kamara has averaged a touchdown once every 16 rushes in his career (and Jameis won’t throw for five of them most weeks), so he has a great shot at finding the end zone. He’s a better value on FanDuel, but he has a positive Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
