The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Sometimes, keeping things simple is the best way to go. That’s the case with Mahomes at quarterback. He’s the best passer in the NFL, and sometimes, that makes him the easiest choice for the position in fantasy.
Specifically, Mahomes is just $7,000 on DraftKings, which is too cheap for a player of his caliber. Mahomes has historically averaged 25.53 DraftKings points with a comparable price tag, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.54 (per the Trends tool).
The Chiefs offense is coming off a mediocre year in 2023, but they looked back to their usual ways vs. the Ravens in Week 1. They were third in the league in dropback EPA, with the combination of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy giving the team the boost that they were missing at the start of last season. Worthy provides elite speed – he ran the fastest 40-yard dash in combine history – while Rice cooked up the Ravens in the intermediate part of the field. The Chiefs didn’t even need to utilize Travis Kelce in their first game of the season, while Hollywood Brown will eventually give the Chiefs another big-play threat.
In other words – it’s a bad year for opposing defenses to play the Chiefs.
Mahomes leads all quarterbacks in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, so if you can afford him, he provides an excellent combination of floor and ceiling for cash games.
Jayden Daniels ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Daniels’ pro debut was a bit of a mixed bag. He wasn’t overly impressive as a passer, especially before the game turned into a blowout. He had just 46 passing yards at halftime, and 78 of his 184 yards came in the final quarter.
Of course, we’re not really rostering Daniels for his arm. We’re doing it for his legs, and in that regard, his debut was a smashing success. He ran the ball a whopping 16 times, racking up 88 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged a healthy 5.5 yards per attempt, and while I’m not sure he’ll be that aggressive as a runner every week, it’s clear that his legs are going to be a big part of the game plan. He had seven attempts for 56 yards before halftime, so he was running well before the game turned into a blowout.
It’s no secret that rushing QBs provide immense fantasy value. QBs that are projected for at least 50 yards in our NFL Models have historically averaged 24.0 DraftKings points per game. Those who are projected for 49 or less have averaged 17.41.
Daniels falls into the former category for his Week 2 matchup vs. the Giants. Even if he might not be the best real-life QB at the moment, he should continue to be extremely good for fantasy purposes. He was the No. 4 QB in Week 1 fantasy scoring, but he’s priced at just QB6 on FanDuel and QB8 on DraftKings. One of the QBs with more fantasy points than him in Week 1 is not available on the main slate (Josh Allen), so he’s still too cheap across the industry.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Prescott is more of a tournament option on DraftKings – he owns the top leverage score in our Models – but he’s an elite option in all formats on FanDuel. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus despite carrying minimal ownership projections.
Prescott will take the field as a home favorite vs. the Saints, which is a spot where he has historically crushed. He’s a perfect 14-0 straight up in that scenario over the past two seasons, and he’s done his best work in that split from a fantasy perspective. He’s averaged 24.68 DraftKings points as a home favorite, which is significantly better than his marks on the road (18.24) or as an underdog (15.15). Ultimately, this is the type of spot where Prescott should always be on your radar.
Prescott had a subpar showing in Week 1, but that was on the road against a ferocious Browns defense. The Cowboys also built a comfortable early lead, so they didn’t really need much from Prescott in the second half. The Saints aren’t an easy matchup, but they’re definitely friendlier than the one he just saw. The Cowboys have the third-highest implied team total on the main slate, so it’s a solid buy-low spot.
Kyler Murray ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Like Daniels, Murray is always going to have appeal for fantasy purposes because of his legs. He wasn’t particularly active as a runner in Week 1, tallying just five carries, but he still finished with a healthy 57 rushing yards. The only issue was he didn’t do much as a passer: 162 yards and one touchdown.
Murray should have more productive days as a passer moving forward. He’s historically been an elite fantasy QB when healthy, and he draws a favorable matchup in Week 2 vs. the Rams. The Cardinals are listed as slight favorites in that contest, and that game has the second-highest total of the week at 48.0 points; only the game between the Lions and Buccaneers is currently expected to see more scoring.
Murray is showing up with the sixth-highest optimal rate on DraftKings using SimLabs, and he’s projected for roughly 6% ownership. That’s a nice combination.
Daniel Jones ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
Look, I get it. Jones was horrible in Week 1, and there’s a very good chance that he’s just not a starting-caliber quarterback. He has just one season with more than 15 touchdown passes, and that came all the way back in his rookie season.
Still, it’s not unheard of for Jones to provide fantasy value. He was the No. 9 QB in fantasy scoring in 2022, thanks in no small part to his rushing ability. He had 708 yards and seven rushing touchdowns that season, and he had four games with at least 25 fantasy points.
The real appeal with Jones this week is the matchup. He’s taking on the Commanders, who were absolutely shredded by Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in Week 1. Mayfield had four passing touchdowns, and the Bucs rolled up 37 total points. Mayfield also finished as the second-highest-scoring QB.
At just $5,300, I’m willing to roll the dice on Jones one more time. If he busts in this matchup, there’s a good chance that we’ll never talk about him again this season. He could get benched – becoming a $40M backup quarterback – or just completely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Sounds like a win-win to me.
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Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Anthony Richardson ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Richardson was the chalk at QB in Week 1, and he did not disappoint. He rattled off 27.08 DraftKings points to finish as the No. 5 quarterback.
Unsurprisingly, he provided solid value with his legs, finishing with 56 yards and a touchdown on the ground. What was surprising was his deep-ball prowess. He connected with Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin for two 50+ yard touchdowns, giving him a bit more upside with his arm than originally anticipated. It remains to be seen if he can make the consistent, necessary throws to be an NFL QB, but his ability to sprinkle in a big play with his arm is great news for his fantasy prospects.
Despite his excellent production, Richardson is not expected to be nearly as popular in Week 2. He’s projected for approximately five percent ownership on DraftKings and less than three percent on FanDuel. It’s a classic “pay up to be contrarian spot” against a Packers team that surrendered 34 points to the Eagles in Week 1.
Brock Purdy ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Purdy didn’t have to do much but turn around and hand the ball off in Week 1. The 49ers absolutely dominated the Jets in the trenches, leading to a monster performance from Jordan Mason.
However, Purdy was effective when he did take to the air. He averaged 8.0 yards per attempt against an elite Jets secondary, and he would’ve had a touchdown pass if not for a Brandon Aiyuk drop in the end zone.
The 49ers offensive ceiling remains one of the highest in the NFL, and Purdy is the guy pulling all the strings. With Christian McCaffrey’s status up in the air once again in Week 2, Purdy could be asked to do a bit more than usual. He stands out as the No. 1 QB in terms of optimal rate minus projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Joe Burrow ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Burrow and the Bengals were dreadful in Week 1, and it sounds as though Tee Higgins is going to miss at least one more week. They’ll also have to navigate a brutal matchup vs. the Chiefs, who were one of the best passing defenses in football last season.
Still, this is Burrow that we’re talking about. He’s one of the best QBs in football, and it’s certainly not unusual for him to start the year slowly.
If the Bengals are going to keep up with the Chiefs, Burrow is going to need to elevate his play quickly. The good news is that Ja’Marr Chase should be at closer to 100% after being slightly limited in Week 1. Burrow has also averaged 26.3 DraftKings points in four previous meetings with the Chiefs, going for at least 21.5 in three of four contests. At a reduced price tag across the industry, he’s an interesting contrarian option.
