I’ll be breaking down intriguing leverage plays every week throughout the 2018 NFL season. The focus will be on analyzing our new proprietary metric, Leverage Score, which is based on projected ownership and ceiling.
Visit the FantasyLabs NFL page for more weekly breakdowns. You can also view all of this week’s Leverage Score data using the Player Models.
The Chalk
Antonio Brown: $8,800 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
We currently have both Brown and running back James Conner projected in the 31-40% ownership range in Models, but it’s a lot tougher to fade an underpriced running back with a guaranteed workload.
That said, building lineups around Brown makes a ton of sense because the Chiefs defense relies heavily on man coverage (46.3% in 2017). Per the Week 2 Stacks Breakdown, AB has cleared the 98th percentile in success rate versus man coverage in each of the last four seasons (Reception Perception).
The condensed touch share in Pittsburgh is extremely appealing with Le’Veon Bell out — not to mention rookie wide receiver James Washington saw just 13% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 and drew zero targets. AB yielded a 0.90 Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) — a volume metric that combines target and air yards market share — the sixth-highest mark of any wide receiver in Week 1.
The home/road splits for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger are common knowledge at this point, and AB got his last week, anyway — despite very poor weather in Cleveland. Against a Kansas City defense that ranked 29th in pass DVOA last year, he’s going to go absolutely nuts in a game in which the Steelers have the second-highest implied total of the week.
The Pivot
DeAndre Hopkins: $8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Julio Jones and Michael Thomas are both in play in the same salary range, but Hopkins should draw by far the lowest ownership. We currently have him pegged at 9-12%, with a strong Leverage Score of 74%.
The status of Will Fuller is crucial in terms of Hopkins’ efficiency. In nine games in which both wide receivers suited up last year, Hopkins saw a nearly identical amount of targets, but his touchdowns increased from 0.29 to 1.22 per game (RotoViz). Hopkins’ yards also spiked from 80.4 to 99.2 per game. Fuller frees up a ton of space for Hopkins because defenses have to respect Fuller’s deep speed. Tennessee ranked 31st at defending opposing WR1s in 2017.
High Leverage Spot
Jared Goff: $6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers has the highest Leverage Score on the slate (100%), but due to his injury concerns, no one with a brain should be attacking the Vikings defense with a $6,800 quarterback.
(That blurb should age well… especially when Rodgers goes 400 yards and five touchdowns in the stone-worst spot on the slate. Don’t @ me.)
That brings us to Goff, with an equally impressive 98% Leverage Score on FanDuel with running back Todd Gurley projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. The Rams’ 29.25 implied total is top three in Week 2.
The Rams passed on 56.7% of their offensive plays in Week 1, closely in line with their 55.8% split in 2017 that finished as the 10th lowest in the NFL. That said, efficiency is far more important than volume at the quarterback position, and the Cardinals allowed Alex Smith to generate the fifth-highest passer rating in Week 1. If anything, Gurley limits Goff’s floor as opposed to his ceiling, as the stud RB could certainly secure a large portion of the touchdown equity.
The matchup is far from intimidating outside of cornerback Patrick Peterson, as Arizona was below average against the pass last year, ranking 24th in DVOA.
Per our Trends tool, home favorite quarterbacks with comparably low floors have historically provided a +2.18 FanDuel Plus/Minus at insanely low ownership of 0.9% in large guaranteed prize pools.
Pictured above: DeAndre Hopkins
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
