Monkey Knife Fight takes a new spin on daily fantasy, combining player props and parlays. With unique contest structures, put your football knowledge to the test and pit player performances against one another.
Check out a few picks to consider in this exciting format.
More or Less 2/3
Russel Wilson Passing Yards (285.5) vs. Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards (257.5) vs. DK Metcalf Receiving Yards (80.5)
I’m opting to go with the pick 2/3 structure in the More or Less formats, giving flexibility if a player does not have a stellar outing.
This week, one of the top games on the slate, currently with a 53.5-point total, the Week 2 matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans looks to be a shootout. Last week, Russell Wilson had a mid-season performance to open the 2021 season, with a 28-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts, passing for 254 yards and four touchdowns. This week, Wilson gets a prime matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who rank second-to-last in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, torched by Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns as part of a 38-13 Cardinals win.
Per the Trends tool, Wilson reached the 286 passing yard threshold eight times last year, with each matchup having a closing total of 53.5 or higher. Seattle’s offense skews toward a pass-heavy approach, using a 60%/40% pass-to-run split, and with a concentrated receiving corps, Wilson should easily reach the over.
On the opposite end, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill should have a bounce-back week after only throwing for 212 yards and one touchdown against the number one graded defense, according to PFF. Tannehill will likely be playing from behind as a six-point underdog, signaling a pass-heavy play script against a Seattle Seahawks defense ranked 12th in defensive coverage by PFF. Tannehill reached the 258 passing yard mark in five games last season but got an upgrade in the receiving corps in Julio Jones, who should play opposite to A.J. Brown. Our models project Tannehill to throw for 261 yards in an up-tempo shootout.
If Russell Wilson has a standout performance, all signs point toward wide receiver DK Metcalf exceeding expectations. In Seattle’s condensed offense, Metcalf and Tyler Lockett stand out as the preferred targets for Wilson. Last week, Metcalf saw 23% of Seattle’s target share, splitting the lead with Lockett, targeted five times, catching four passes for 60 yards. Going back to last season, Metcalf has reached the 81 receiving yards mark in eight games. Dating back to 2019, Wilson has a strong correlation to the WR2 at 0.52 and given the tremendous upside and big-play ability, Metcalf should reach the over.
The Pick: Russel Wilson More 285.5 passing yards, Ryan Tannehill More 257.5 passing yards, DK Metcalf More 80.5 Receiving Yards
Rapid Fire 2/3
Dak Prescott vs. Justin Herbert (+4.5) Passing Yards, Ezekiel Elliott vs. Austin Ekeler (+7.5) Rushing Yards, Amari Cooper (+.5) vs. CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards
In Rapid Fire contests, participants choose who will have the best outcome—with a spread. Like More or Less, I’m opting for the pick 2/3 format.
The Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers square off in the highest total on the slate at 54.5-points. Quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert lead high-powered offenses with pass-heavy play-calling tendencies. Last season, the Chargers and Cowboys ranked first and second in plays called, averaging 71 and 70 plays, respectively. Playing at a lightning-fast pace, the Cowboys and Chargers ranked in the top 10 in pace, with the Cowboys ranked first, calling a play ever 23.3 seconds.
The up-tempo nature of the Week 2 matchup should produce plenty of passing opportunities. In Week 1, Prescott and Herbert ranked among the top 10 in passing yards, with Prescott throwing for 403 yards and Herbert 337. Our Models indicate similar performances, with each quarterback throwing for more than 300 yards. Even laying 4.5-points to Herbert, Prescott projects to throw for more yards, currently with 307 passing yards.
While the passing tendencies of the Cowboys and Chargers seem to be the main talking point around the industry this week, both teams feature top running backs who see plenty of work in the backfield. Last week, Austin Ekeler ran for 57 yards on 15 attempts against a Washington Football Team defense that ranks 24th in defensive DVOA and looks to be in a similar matchup against a Cowboys defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA.
Our models project Ekeler to see the bulk of the workload in the backfield, projecting for 13 rush attempts for 60 yards. Opposite to Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliot should play a significant role in the Cowboys’ offense. In Week 1, Elliott was limited to 11 rushing attempts for 33 yards, primarily used as protection for Dak Prescott against a tough Buccaneers defense. Although the Chargers are ranked fifth in run defense according to PFF, Elliot projects for 13.6 carries and 64 yards. Expect additional carries for Elliot if the Cowboys are in the lead in the fourth quarter. With the 7.5-points toward Ekeler and the Chargers currently 3.5-point favorites, Ekeler looks to outperform.
Prescott’s preferred targets in the Cowboys’ receiving corps are Amari Copper and CeeDee Lamb. With Michael Gallup on the IR, both wide receivers should see additional targets as part of the Cowboy’s pass-first offense. Cooper and Lamb were targeted a combined 32 times in Dallas’s 29-31 loss to the Buccaneers. According to Vegas, the trend should continue in Week 2, with the Cowboys likely playing from behind, indicating more looks to the primary weapons of the Cowboys’ offense. We’re projecting Lamb to have more receiving yards, beating out Cooper 80 to 78.
The Pick: Dak Prescott | Austin Ekeler | CeeDee Lamb
More or Less 2/3
Tom Brady Passing Yards (310.5) vs. Matt Ryan Passing Yards (282.5) vs. Calvin Ridley Receiving Yards (84.5)
The Week 2 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons puts quarterback Tom Brady in a prime position, in a game with a 51-point total, and the Buccaneers implied to score 33.25 points, the highest on the slate.
In Week 1, Brady threw for 379 yards against the Dallas Cowboys and faces an Atlanta Falcons defense ranked 30th in defensive DVOA. With plenty of weapons in a receiving corps of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, Brady should have no problem moving the ball down the field, keeping the Falcons defense guessing. Last season, Brady reached the 311 passing yard threshold once when playing in games with a 51-point total or higher (per the Trends tool, but our Models indicate he may have a ceiling performance, currently projected for 314 yards.
Opposite to Brady, Matt Ryan runs into a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that ranks 17th in pass coverage, according to PFF. Against the Eagles, who rank 10th in pass coverage, Ryan threw for 164 yards. As a 13.5-point underdog, the Falcons may have to air the ball more to keep up with Tampa Bay, but a stout defense might limit Atlanta’s ability to move the ball down the field. Our models currently project Ryan to throw for 268 yards—well below the Monkey Knife Fight line.
If Ryan is limited through the air by the Buccaneers’ defense, Calvin Ridley likely will not have a great day. Ridley is the preferred target for Ryan, seeing 24% of the Falcons target share, catching five passes for 51 yards against the Eagles. Ridley’s volume should be there, but reaching 85 receiving yards might be a difficult task against the Buccaneers. Currently, our Models project Ridley to have 81 receiving yards on the day.
The Pick: Tom Brady More 310.5 passing yards, Matt Ryan Less 282.5 passing yards, Calvin Ridley Less 84.5 Receiving Yards
