The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Dak Prescott at Washington Commanders – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
After the Eagles’ surprising loss last week, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have a shot at winning the division and securing the No. 2 seed in the NFC. In the FantasyLabs projections for DraftKings, Dak has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all quarterbacks, and in THE BLITZ projections, he also has the highest median and floor projections. Chris Raybon also ranks Prescott with the highest ceiling median and floor projection on DraftKings. In an evenly-blended aggregate of those three projections, Prescott has the highest projections across the board and stands out as a top play.
FanDuel includes the Sunday Night Football game on their main slate this week, and Josh Allen comes close to catching Dak, but Prescott still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregated projections.
Prescott led the Cowboys to a controversial 20-19 win last week, throwing for 345 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in nine of his last 10 games while averaging 290.4 passing yards per game.
The Cowboys have the highest implied team total of the week in their great matchup with Washington, who has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged just under 270 yards passing per game this season, with 35 touchdowns in 16 games.
Dak and Dallas still have something to prove and important playoff seeding to claim, so they should be ready to pile up points against the Commanders this week. They’re one of the top offenses to target, and Prescott should be one of the top quarterbacks on the slate.
Top Value: Nick Mullens at Detroit Lions – $5,100 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
Nick Mullens has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on DraftKings in the aggregated projection, and he has the second-highest of quarterbacks under $8,000 on FanDuel, behind only Geno Smith. Both are solid plays, but Mullens looks just a little better, especially on DraftKings with his 95% Bargain Rating.
Mullens made two starts for Minnesota before giving way to rookie Jaren Hall last week. Hall struggled, so Mullens returned at halftime and threw for 113 yards and a touchdown in the second half. In each of his two starts, he exceeded salary-based expectations. He threw for a total of 714 yards and four touchdowns but struggled with turnovers, throwing six picks. His “boom-or-bust” style gives him a high enough ceiling to be a good value.
He started in Week 16 against the Lions and racked up 411 yards but also four interceptions. He’s high-risk but has a great group of receivers to work with, led by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Since a win would keep the Vikings’ slim playoff hopes alive, I expect Mullens and the Vikings to stay aggressive. The Lions are still playing for the No. 2 seed in the NFC, so they definitely won’t roll over, though.
This game should be a relatively high-scoring game indoors in Detroit, and Mullens has a high ceiling that makes him a very strong value to consider.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Rachaad White at Carolina Panthers – $7,600 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
The Buccaneers can claim the NFC South with a win over the hapless Panthers, so Rachaad White is set up for a big week. White has the highest ceiling and floor projections at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections and the highest median projection on FanDuel.
White has carried the load for the Bucs all season as their lead running back, averaging 15.8 carries and 3.75 receptions per game. His yardage totals haven’t usually been jaw-dropping, but his steady production and nine total touchdowns have made him a good play most weeks. He exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 straight games before getting a smaller workload last week since the Bucs were forced to play from behind.
In his first matchup with Carolina this season, back in Week 13, White had 84 rushing yards, 22 receiving yards, and a one-yard touchdown run in the Bucs’ narrow 21-18 victory. The Panthers are a top-six matchup for running backs this season. Opposing running backs have scored 24 times in 16 games while averaging 128.6 scrimmage yards.
While he isn’t cheap, he should be in a secure enough position to deliver again this week as he looks to help carry the Bucs into the postseason.
Top Value: Pierre Strong – $4,000 on DraftKings, $4,600 on FanDuel
There are several cheap running backs expected to be in expanded roles this week, with key producers resting. Jordan Mason should be in a good spot filling in for Christian McCaffrey, and Ronnie Rivers will try to step up and fill in for Kyren Williams.
In the aggregated projections on FanDuel, the best Projected Plus/Minus of the bunch comes from Pierre Strong, who is expected to get most of the work in the Browns backfield. On DraftKings, Strong has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and comes at just $4,000.
Strong should carry the load with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt taking it easy and Jeff Driskel stepping in for Joe Flacco. While he hasn’t gotten a ton of work, Strong has averaged 4.6 yards per carry with 49 carries on the season and added five catches for 47 yards in his limited work as well.
The Bengals are a great matchup for Strong since they have allowed eight running back touchdowns in their last eight games and 100+ rushing yards in three straight contests. Ty Chandler and Isiah Pacheco have both had big games against the Bengals, so Strong should be able to find room to make plays.
We know the Browns can run effectively and like to rely on the ground game, so Strong should be ready for a big workload in this smash spot.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb at Washington Commanders – $9,300 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
With the Cowboys expected to be in full attack mode against Washington, CeeDee Lamb is at the top of our models at wide receiver. In the aggregated projections, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position on both sites and the most Pts/Sal.
Lamb has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 11 games and has five ceiling games in his last 10, producing an Average Plus/Minus of 7.8 DraftKings points and 6.8 FanDuel points. He has at least nine targets in each of those 10 games and has averaged 8.8 catches on 12.6 targets for 117.6 yards per game with nine touchdowns in that span.
Lamb had a season-high 227 receiving yards last week vs. the Lions and also set the team’s single-season record for both receptions (122) and yards (1,651).
The Cowboys dominated the Commanders in their Week 12 matchup, and Lamb only had four catches for 53 yards since Dallas had a big lead most of the day. On the season, the Commanders have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers. They have averaged 176.3 receiving yards per game against Washington, with 14 total touchdowns in 16 games.
Dallas can ensure the potential for two home playoff games with a win, so look for Dak and Lamb to connect early and often on Sunday.
Top Value: Demario Douglas vs. New York Jets – $4,400 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
Things get especially wild at receiver with so many potential fill-ins on Sunday. There is also a lot of disparity between DraftKings and FanDuel salaries for several key value options. Demario Douglas has been a nice value pick for much of the season in a significant role for the Patriots. The rookie has an 80% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he ranks in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus.
Douglas has at least five targets in each of his last eight games, although he did miss two games during that stretch with a concussion. He has averaged 4.6 catches on 7.0 targets for 50.6 yards per game over that stretch. He still hasn’t found the end zone, but the Pats may prioritize getting him his first NFL score before the season comes to a close.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle) on IR and DeVante Parker (ribs) limited in practice, there should be plenty of work for Douglas as one of the top targets against the Jets. Opposing receivers have not put up good numbers overall against New York this season, but they do have four touchdowns in their last seven games.
On FanDuel, Douglas is priced much higher, so options like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Greg Dortch stand out since they both have identical 77% Bargain Ratings. Richie James, Ronnie Bell, and Chris Conley are other bargain fill-ins who are projected for more work on Sunday.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Since he took over at tight end for the Cardinals, Trey McBride has been one of this season’s top breakout performers. I’ve been riding the Trey train almost every week since his volume gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling. This week, he has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections.
McBride has actually fallen just short of salary-based expectations in each of the last two weeks, but he has still had six catches in each game. He was just held to 31 and 48 yards against the Bears and Eagles, respectively. McBride still ranks first among all tight ends in target share and first-read share since Week 10, and he has averaged 7.1 catches for 72.0 yards per game on 8.6 targets per game over that seven-game span.
Against Seattle, McBride should be able to have a strong finish to his season since they have allowed three tight end touchdowns in the last five weeks with 60+ receiving yards allowed to the position in three of those games as well.
Top Value: Noah Gray at Los Angeles Chargers – $2,500 on DraftKings, $4,800 on FanDuel
Gray is expected to fill in for the Chiefs in place of Travis Kelce while Blaine Gabbert fils in for Patrick Mahomes. Gray has been working alongside Kelce in two-tight-end sets and has totaled 305 yards on his 28 catches this year while scoring a pair of touchdowns.
Last week, he matched his season-high with three catches for 17 yards, but in an expanded role, he should be able to return elite value against the Chargers. Opposing tight ends have scored five touchdowns against L.A. on the season, including two in the last four weeks.
Gray has the potential to be one of Gabbert’s go-to options, which is why he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on DraftKings, where he has a 99% Bargain Rating. On FanDuel, he’s a good play even though he isn’t quite as cheap. Johnny Mundt is an alternative bargain that stands out on that site with a 77% Bargain Rating.
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