The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for the 13-game Week 18 slate, which closes out the 2022 NFL regular season.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts vs. New York Giants – $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Jalen Hurts currently projects for the highest ceiling on the week in what looks to be an ideal matchup against the Eagles’ NFC East rival New York Giants, who rank 29 in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
While Hurts has not yet been confirmed as of this writing as he is dealing with an ongoing shoulder injury suffered in a Week 15 25-20 win over the Chicago Bears. The third-year quarterback has massive potential to reach an 85th-percentile outcome. Should Hurts sit out in the regular season finale, expect Gardner Minshew to resume play-calling duties for the Eagles, with the number one seed at stake in the NFC.
The Eagles are a massive 14-point home favorite in a matchup with a 43-point total, one of the highest on the slate. A dangerous dual-threat option, Hurts handles under-center duties for a hyper-balanced Eagles offense, running a 51%/49% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz), calling a play on average at lighting-fast 25.9 seconds.
Despite the injury late in the season, Hurts should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 248 passing yards per game and a 67.3% completion rate, also moving the Eagles through the ground game, averaging 11.1 rushing attempts per game and 4.79 yards per carry. In the win over the Bears in Week 15, Hurts threw for 315 yards, also rushing for three touchdowns. Despite the high price tag, look to stack Hurts with Eagles’ skill position players, namely AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Hurts appears in matchups above a 43-point total, he averages 26.08 actual DraftKings points, with a +3.30 Plus/Minus and a 68.4% consistency rating.
Top Value: Geno Smith vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,900 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
In a breakout season, veteran quarterback Geno Smith projects as a top value option on DraftKings, leading a Seattle Seahawks offense squaring off against their NFC West rival Los Angeles Rams.
The Seahawks, who remain in the mix for the seventh seed in the NFC, face an injured Rams’ defense which ranks 19th in DVOA, in a finale with a 41.5-point total.
According to PFF, the Rams rank fifth in overall defense, which looks to be a more difficult matchup than expected. In a must-win game for the Seahawks, Smith’s discounted price tag makes him a fantasy-relevant option, especially for a quarterback that is averaging 254.3 passing yards per game and has crossed the 300-passing yard mark in four games this season, including a Week 13 27-23 shootout win against the Rams, throwing for 367 yards and three touchdowns.
Look for plenty of stacking options, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the Seahawks’ receiving corps and Rams’ skill players in Cam Akers and Tutu Atwell all as viable bring-backs.
Note: Be sure to monitor Tyler Lockett’s (shin) status leading up to lock.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Arizona Cardinals – $9,300 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey again projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing an Arizona Cardinals defense that looks to have trouble defending the run, ranking 23rd in rush DVOA.
In 10 weeks as a member of the 49ers, McCaffrey is averaging 14.9 rushing attempts per game and 4.70 yards per carry, seeing 6.2 targets per game and 8.8 yards per reception, making him an all-purpose player, and integral to San Francisco’s success. With San Francisco having a chance at the No. 1 seed (with a win and a Philadelphia loss), expect McCaffrey to have plenty of opportunities to move the offense.
In the Week 17 37-34 overtime win over the Las Vegas Raiders, McCaffrey rushed for 121 yards on 19 attempts, finding the end zone once, and was targeted nine times, catching six passes for 52 yards. Even with the sky-high price tag, McCaffrey can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome given his volume in the 49ers’ offense and versatile playmaking ability and not to mention touchdown upside and the 100-yard rushing bonus.
Further, San Francisco is a massive 14-point home favorite and should lean heavily on McCaffrey to close out the game should the 49ers be ahead late.
Top Value: Kenneth Walker III vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,400 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III projects as a top value in a matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, who rank 13th in rushing DVOA, which looks to be a more challenging matchup for the elite running back.
Walker is an integral part of the Seahawks offense this season, responsible for 56% of the rushing share, averaging 14.2 rushing attempts per game and 4.70 yards per carry. In addition to the workload in the backfield, the rookie also averages 2.4 targets per game and six yards per reception, further adding to his fantasy relevance, competing with the infamous Seahawks receiving corps in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
In the 23-6 win over the New York Jets in Week 17, Walker rushed for a season-high 133 yards on 23 attempts, finding the end zone once and also catching one pass for nine yards.
Should Walker’s volume continue, in which he has seen more than 14 rushing attempts in seven of his 10 starts this season, consider him a viable option for salary relief. The Seahawks are a six-point home favorite and will likely use Walker to drive home the win, adding to his volume and upside.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson at Chicago Bears – $9,100 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Justin Jefferson projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 18, facing the Chicago Bears in an NFC North rivalry matchup to close out the regular season. After a disappointing Week 17 outing, Jefferson looks to have an ideal matchup this week, facing a Bears defense ranked 32nd in pass DVOA.
One of the elite receiving options, Jefferson is responsible for a 30% target share and is the preferred option for Kirk Cousins, averaging 11.2 targets per game and 14.3 yards per reception. Further, look for Jefferson to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in 10 of the Vikings’ 16 games this season, and also recording a touchdown in seven games. In the 41=17 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Jefferson was targeted five times, catching one pass for 15 yards. Despite the dismal performance last week, the superstar wideout looks to have consistent volume, seeing at least eight targets in 13 games.
Aside from the volume, Jefferson is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 26 red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, only behind Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Jefferson’s volume and touchdown upside consistently make him a prime candidate to have the slate-breaking ability and reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Facing the Bears in Week 5 of the season, Jefferson was targeted 13 times, catching 12 passes for 154 yards. The upside is certainly there for Jefferson.
Top Value: Tutu Atwell at Seattle Seahawks – $3,400 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell projects as a top value option this week in a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who rank 18th in pass DVOA.
This season, the second-year wide receiver Atwell has a modest 10% target share behind Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson, seeing 2.7 targets per game and 16.9 yards per reception.
Since week 14, Atwell has seen a steady increase in targets, likely attributed to the mounting injuries on the Rams, seeing at least four targets in three of the past four games. In a 31-10 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17, Atwell was targeted by quarterback Baker Mayfield five times, catching two passes for 10 yards,
If the passing volume should continue for Davis, his digestible salary on DraftKings makes him a fantasy-viable option, opening up pathways to higher-priced skill position players, and can even serve as a cheap bring-back in Geno Smith-led Seahawks stacks.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: George Kittle vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
Without Travis Kelce on the main slate, San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle projects for the highest ceiling, facing an Arizona Cardinals defense ranked 20th in pass DVOA.
Kittle plays an integral role in the 49ers’ passing game, seeing 5.7 targets per game and averaging 13.1 yards per reception, and responsible for an 18% target share, only behind Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
In the last four weeks, Kittle has seen consistent volume come his way, with at least five targets in each game and at least one touchdown in three of the four weeks. With 13 red zone targets this season, consider Kittle a dangerous option for touchdown upside and even a viable candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus.
With THE BLITZ, Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews projects for the highest ceiling in a road matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. Priced $600 less than Kittle, Andrews faces a Bengals defense ranked 13th in pass DVOA.
Andrews is the lead option in the Ravens’ receiving corps, responsible for a 28% target share and 17 red zone targets. Similar to the elite receivers in Kelce and Kittle, Andrews averages 7.5 targets per game and 11.6 yards per reception, and despite the lack of touchdown upside, has seen at least five targets in all but one game this season
With the pivot on DraftKings, Andrews warrants a second look, despite the less-than-ideal defensive matchup, and with his consistent volume can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Pat Freiermuth vs. Cleveland Browns – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth projects as a top value at tight end given his discounted salary on DraftKings. The second-year member of the Steelers has a modest 20% target share, which is second in the Steelers’ receiving corps, averaging 6.4 targets per game and 11.6 yards per reception.
In a 16-13 win over the Baltimore Ravens last week, Freiermuth was targeted six times, catching three passes for 36 yards. With the consistent volume, Freiermuth becomes a salary relief option, despite playing in a matchup with a 40.5-point total. The volume should remain a consistent factor, especially with Kenny Pickett handling under-center duties, with Freiermuth seeing at least four targets in 13 games this season.
Be sure to consider pairing Freiermuth with Browns’ skill position players, especially Nick Chub, Amari Cooper or Donovan Peoples-Jones.
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