The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Baker Mayfield vs. New Orleans Saints – $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
In the final week of the regular season, different teams are in various situations and have different levels of motivation as they push to the finish. For fantasy, it makes sense to stick with teams and players we know will go hard since they have something or everything to play for. The Bucs are one of those teams since they’ll clinch a playoff spot and the NFC South crown with a win over the hapless Saints.
Baker Mayfield has the highest median projection and second-highest ceiling projection of all quarterbacks on DraftKings this week in the evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ. Since FanDuel includes the Sunday night game, Sam Darnold and Jared Goff are near the top of the projections, but Baker is still near the top, aside from those NFC North QBs.
Mayfield has had a strong season, totaling 39 passing touchdowns and 4,279 passing yards and throwing just 15 interceptions. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight weeks on DraftKings and posted a season-high 37.56 DraftKings points last week in a must-win game against the Panthers.
He has over 29 DraftKings points in six games this season, and he will look to post another monster game to get Tampa Bay into the postseason.
Against the Saints in Week 6, he threw for 325 yards and four touchdowns on his way to 31.9 DraftKings points. Quarterbacks have thrown for an average of 254.6 yards per game against the Saints, and Mayfield will be in a smash spot to finish the season this Sunday. The only concern is that the game could turn into a blowout, but the Bucs have shown a willingness to keep their foot on the gas even when up big.
Top Value: Joshua Dobbs at Arizona Cardinals – $4,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Welcome to the wild world of Week 18! When salaries for Week 18 came out last Monday, most casual fans probably didn’t even know that Dobbs was on the 49ers, and this week he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Earlier this season when Brock Purdy (elbow) missed a game, Brandon Allen ($4,200) got the start, but this week, it’ll be Dobbs who gets the call in the season finale against the Cardinals. Purdy left Monday night’s game with an elbow injury, and Dobbs, who stepped in against the Lions and completed three of four pass attempts for 35 yards and added a seven-yard rushing score. It was Dobbs’ first action of the season, but it also was a reminder of how the scrambling QB brings plenty of upside as both a rusher and a passer.
Dobbs had some success last year with the Cardinals and Vikings, throwing 13 touchdowns and running for six more scores. “The Pastronaut” started 12 games and averaged 190 passing yards and over 30 rushing yards per game.
While neither team has anything to play for, Dobbs could raise his stock as a backup going forward with a strong showing. At just $4,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, Dobbs has a very high ceiling for such a low salary and is in a favorable spot against the Cardinals, who have given up nine QB touchdowns over the last six weeks.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Bijan Robinson vs. Carolina Panthers – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
The Falcons need to beat the Panthers to get into the playoffs, but they also need the Bucs to lose to the Saints. Both games are in the early window, though, so Atlanta won’t be eliminated before kickoff. With so much at stake, Robinson has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections in the three-way aggregate at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Even though he isn’t cheap, he is also expected to bring good value with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites.
In the two weeks since the Falcons went to Michael Penix Jr. as QB, Robinson has been the clear focus of the offense. He had two touchdowns and over 23 DraftKings points in each of those games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 11 games.
On the season, Robinson has scored 13 touchdowns and set a new career-high with 1,286 rushing yards.
The Panthers have been a great matchup for running backs all season. Running backs have not only scored 19 touchdowns against them in 16 games, but they have also averaged 143.6 rushing yards and 36.6 receiving yards per game. Robinson should thrive in this matchup as the Falcons do their part to try to keep the pressure on Baker and the Bucs.
Top Value: Michael Carter vs. San Francisco 49ers – $4,700 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
In the same “meaningless” NFC West game where Dobbs is a great value QB, Carter gets a chance to step up and start for the Cardinals as a great value RB. The former Jet has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in the aggregate projections, and he has an 89% Bargain Rating on that site where he’s priced barely more than the minimum.
There are many potential value plays at running back due to rest and injuries, but we got a look at Carter’s potential as a top running back last week. He stepped in for the injured James Conner (knee, out) and finished with 70 rushing yards on 13 carries against the Rams while catching both his targets for 11 more yards. In Week 16, he was also involved against the Panthers, catching five passes on five targets for 30 yards and adding 18 rushing yards on five carries.
Carter has been on the practice squad for most of this season before signing a contract this week, but he has a clear path to playing time with rookie Trey Benson (ankle) and Emari Demercado (back) on IR in addition to Conner.
The matchup should be a tasty one for Carter since the 49ers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs on the season. In the last six weeks, five running backs have totaled 100+ yards against the 49ers, and running backs as a group have posted over 150 rushing yards in four of those games while totaling seven touchdowns.
Alternatives to consider that have upside but also less certainty include Blake Corum of the Rams, Rico Dowdle of the Cowboys, Carson Steele of the Chiefs, and Kenneth Gainwell of the Eagles.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Courtland Sutton vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $6,400 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
The Broncos are another team that controls their own destiny this week since they can get into the playoffs with a win over the Chiefs. Kansas City is expected to rest its key players as well since they have the No. 1 seed wrapped up, which should set up a big game for Sutton. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of all wide receivers on DraftKings with a couple of Sunday Night options pushing him down to No. 4 on FanDuel.
Sutton is nearing a contract incentive and needs 82 receiving yards this week for $500K. Despite overtime in Cincinnati last week, he was held to just 55 yards while Marvin Mims Jr. went off. Sutton has been held under 60 yards for three straight weeks, in fact, but he still has gotten at least nine targets in three of his last four games. He also has at least 78 yards in three of his last four home games, so he remains very much the focal point of the passing game led by rookie Bo Nix.
Nix will likely look to Sutton early and often against the Chiefs’ backups, and he should be able to reach his incentives and put together a big game. He had six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on his way to 19 DraftKings points in his first matchup against the Chiefs this season.
Sutton has eight touchdowns on the year to go with his 983 receiving yards. If he reaches 1,000 receiving yards (which seems very likely), he would be the first Broncos’ WR to get to 1,000 yards since 2019.
Top Value: Michael Pittman vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Week 18 is especially wild when it comes to picking value wide receivers since targets are so unpredictable with players resting and new QBs in the mix. In the aggregate projections, though, Pittman stands out as a very solid mid-range value play against the Jaguars. He ranks in the top eight in Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Pittman has thrived this season whenever Joe Flacco has started at quarterback. He had nine catches for 109 yards and a touchdown last week against the Giants with Flacco back in the lineup for Anthony Richardson (back), who has been sidelined at practice all week and seems unlikely to return.
While Pittman’s overall season has been disappointing, with just 736 receiving yards and three touchdowns, it is worth remembering that he played through a serious back issue that was expected to land him on IR.
Recently, he has had at least five catches in five of the last six weeks overall and has looked much better since the team’s bye week. If Flacco targets him as much as he did last week, Pittman should finish the season on a high note against the Jaguars, who have allowed opposing receivers to score 17 touchdowns in 16 games while averaging 171.8 receiving yards per game.
Other receiver values that make sense in the aggregate projections include Pittman’s teammate Josh Downs, Jakobi Meyers, Jordan Whittington, KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Coker.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. San Francisco 49ers – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
With so much uncertainty on the slate, McBride is in a great spot since he lines up to work with his normal QB, Kyler Murray. The tandem has produced great totals for the tight end, even though the Cardinals have been out of the playoffs for a few weeks. He has the highest ceiling projection at the position in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
McBride finally got into the end zone last week for his first receiving touchdown of the season. He racked up 12 catches for 123 yards and almost caught a second touchdown but deflected it into the game-sealing interception.
Despite the lack of touchdowns, McBride has been a top option at the position since he gets so much volume. In his 15 games, he has averaged 6.9 catches on 9.1 targets per game while averaging 72.1 receiving yards per contest. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, with 14+ DraftKings points in five of his last six contests.
Earlier this season, McBride had six catches on nine targets for 53 yards in the Cardinals’ 24-23 win over the 49ers. Our projections like him to improve on those numbers this week.
Top Value: Chig Okonkwo vs. Houston Texans – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
Okonkwo and the Titans host the Texans in a game that won’t have playoff impact for either team. In fact, the Titans plan to play both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis at QB, which makes the situation even trickier for fantasy owners. However, Okonkwo still stands out as a value play since he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings behind only high-priced options McBride and Brock Bowers. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of Sunday afternoon’s options under $6,000 on FanDuel.
Since the trade of DeAndre Hopkins and the injury to Tyler Boyd, Okonkwo has emerged with a larger role in the Titans’ passing game, regardless of who was at QB. He had a memorable 70-yard touchdown against the Texans in their first meeting this season back in Week 12 and has at least three catches in every game since then.
In the last three weeks, he has 28 targets and has converted them into 22 catches for 182 yards. He has double-digit DraftKings points in each of his last three games and brings big-play potential in addition to his sizable volume. As long as his abdominal injury doesn’t sideline him Sunday, he should finish the season strong as an important contributor in the Titans’ offense that will look to upgrade at QB this offseason.
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