In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tony Pollard
- James Conner
- Pierre Strong
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Tony Pollard ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-13) at Washington Commanders (47 total)
Tony Pollard has failed to find the end zone in four straight games, with single-digit DraftKings points in three of four games. It’s been a lackluster season as a whole, topping 20 DraftKings points just twice thus far.
One of those performances came in this same matchup on Thanksgiving, as Pollard rushed for 79 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries while catching all six of his targets for 24 yards. Washington has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs on the year.
They’ve given up the fourth-most total yards and fifth-most touchdowns to opposing backfields, and the 49ers backs combined for 197 yards and a touchdown against them last week.
Dallas owns the highest team totals on the entire slate, and Dak Prescott is expected to be high owned. This makes Pollard an intriguing option in tournaments as leverage off of Prescott.
Pollard is the top option in our Tournament Model.
James Conner ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47.5 total)
James Conner has quietly handled a monstrous workload as of late. He’s averaged 22 opportunities per game over the past four contests, with at least 17 touches in each game. He’s had a nose for the end zone, with six touchdowns over the four-game span.
His production has still been solid outside of the touchdowns, averaging 16.22 DraftKings points per game with touchdowns removed.
He now gets a matchup with a Seahawks defense that has gotten trampled as of late. They’ve allowed the second-most yards per carry over their last six games and the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs on the year.
Conner ranks fifth in both Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus at the running back position.
He’s the top option in our Cash Game Model and Chris Raybon’s Pro Model this weekend.
Pierre Strong ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals (37.5 total)
Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are expected to take a backseat on Sunday, giving Pierre Strong a chance to lead the backfield. We haven’t seen Strong extensively this year, with a handful of carries in most games.
Strong spoke to the media this week, claiming he’s “been waiting his turn” and will “get to showcase his skills and show the coaches what Pierre is about.”
Cleveland is resting Joe Flacco and a couple of their weapons in the passing game, so they likely look to a run-heavy approach to get the game over with as quickly as possible and head to the postseason. This likely means a lot of Pierre Strong, and he’s extremely cheap.
Strong leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary and is the top back in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Kenneth Walker III ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals (47.5 total)
Kenneth Walker III has been dealing with a shoulder injury as of late but doesn’t carry an injury designation heading into Sunday. He’s seen double-digit carries in three straight games while carving out usage in the passing game, seeing multiple targets in four straight contests.
He gets an absolute dream matchup against Arizona, as the Cardinals have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs on the year. They’ve allowed the fourth-most yards per carry and second-most touchdowns to opposing backs on the year as well.
Jordan Mason ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams (41 total)
With Christian McCaffrey out, it’ll likely be Jordan Mason leading the San Francisco backfield. Eli Mitchell could still be active, but he’s been fairly fragile and has dealt with injuries lately. It’s likely to be Mason leading the backfield. He comes in extremely cheap and will run against a Rams defense that is missing Aaron Donald and potentially other starters.
He’s currently projecting for a lot of ownership, so I’m not super excited. He makes a lot of sense in cash, but the extent of his workload is unclear, so I’d rather go another direction in tournaments.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Aaron Jones ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. Chicago Bears (45 total)
Aaron Jones has been fed heavily since returning to the lineup, as Green Bay’s playoff hopes have been on the line. Jones has seen 17, 24, and 21 opportunities over the past three games, posting 10.9, 17.5, and 17.0 DraftKings points. They seem like middling performances, and they are. but his 15.13 average DraftKings points per game is quite good, especially with him failing to find the end zone.
He toasted this Chicago defense for 26.7 DraftKings points in Week 1, doing a lot of damage through the air. That’s been a common theme for Chicago all year, as they’ve allowed the most receiving fantasy points to opposing backs by a wide margin. AJ Dillon is also set to miss this game, so he won’t be able to vulture touchdowns from Jones at the goal line.
Jones is currently projected to see modest ownership, but there are a lot of appealing options in the same price range and cheaper. I’m expecting his ownership to stay low, making him my favorite running back play of the weekend.
