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Week 17 WR Breakdown: Hungry Julio Should Feast on Panthers

The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.

And just like that: Week 17 is here. Thus far, the Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys starters are tentatively expected to either rest or play limited snaps in Week 17. Be sure to stay on top of who is motivated in Week 17, and as always, check out our Vegas line and Market Share breakdowns to stay on top of Vegas and workload-related trends heading into Sunday.

Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 16-game DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.

The Big Three

We won’t see Antonio Brown (calf, out) again until the AFC Divisional Round at the earliest.This leaves us with three receivers at the top of DraftKings and FanDuel’s pricing totem pole:

  • Julio Jones ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
  • Keenan Allen ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
  • DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)

We have a receiver with the most-tantalizing ceiling in all of sports, a target hog primed to complete the first 16-game season of his career, along with the league’s latest stud receiver hindered by a revolving door at quarterback.

Is Mt. Saint Julio capable of erupting twice in one season?

Jones’ 7-149-0 line against the Saints last week was one of his finest performances of the season, given the majority of his production came against stud rookie Marshon Lattimore, PFF’s No. 5 overall corner. Ability has never been the question for the league’s most physically gifted receiver and it’s hard to be anything but ecstatic about his workload. Jones ranks among the league’s top five receivers in overall targets, targets inside the 10-yard line, and passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.

Next up is a matchup against a Panthers defense that hasn’t exactly slowed Jones down since losing No. 1 corner Josh Norman. He’s posted 6-118-0, 12-300-1, and 4-60-0 lines on the Panthers since the beginning of 2016, regularly overcoming both James Bradberry and Daryl Worley – PFF’s 105th- and 89th-highest graded cornerbacks this season. It would behoove the Falcons to feed one of just three active receivers to average at least 20 DraftKings points per game (PPG) at home since 2014 in a must-win game. Jones is plenty capable of defeating a Panthers defense that has allowed the fifth-most average PPG to opposing wide receiver units this season.

Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to view Jones’ ownership levels at various contest sizes. You can analyze our DFS Contests Dashboard to see how the industry’s elite treat one of the game’s premier talents against a potentially overmatched Panthers defense.

The Keenan factor.

Allen’s 5-63-0 performance (not including an interception!) last week against the Jets marked just the sixth time in 22 games with double-digit targets that he didn’t score a touchdown or surpass 100 yards. Another big workload should be on the horizon with the continued absence of Hunter Henry (kidney, IR). The Chargers will need their No. 1 receiver more than ever with the team fighting for their playoff lives. Allen’s matchup against the Raiders is far from concerning given their performance against some notable slot receivers this season:

  • Sterling Shepard: 6 tgts, 3-56-0
  • Danny Amendola: 9 tgts, 8-66-1
  • Jarvis Landry: 7 tgts, 6-32-1
  • Jeremy Maclin: 8 tgts, 6-43-0
  • Jamison Crowder: 6 tgts, 6-52-0

The primary culprit has been nickel back T.J. Carrie, who has allowed the fifth-most yards per cover snap among full-time slot corners this season. He’s also one of just 11 slot corners to allow three-plus touchdowns. Also working in Allen’s favor is his status as a home favorite, a situation in which he’s averaged 20.4 DraftKings PPG with a +6.7 Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency Rating since 2014 (per our Trends tool).

Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Allen with Philip Rivers on Sunday.

Nuk + Indy = Trouble.

Hopkins’ Christmas Day miracle showcased his standout ability to make contested catches against great corners regardless of who’s under center. After dealing with Jalen Ramsey and Joe Haden in back-to-back weeks, Nuk should be excited to head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts’ 31st-ranked defense in pass DVOA. They will once again be without No. 1 corner Rashaan Melvin (hand, IR) – PFF’s No. 19 overall defensive back this season. The Colts couldn’t slow down Hopkins earlier this season even with Melvin healthy:

Despite a rotating cast of characters at quarterback for the Texans, Hopkins has managed to score a touchdown or catch at least seven passes for 70-plus yards in every game this season. The league’s leader in targets ranks among the top-10 receivers in targets inside the 10-yard line and passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, meaning his ridiculous 35.2 percent target share comes with plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities as well. Nuk has already scored a career-high 13 touchdowns this season and he’s just 143 yards and 15 receptions away from reaching his 2015 thresholds in those marks as well. He has as good a chance as ever for a massive day against a Colts defense that has allowed league-high marks in yards per attempt and 20-plus yard receptions this season.

Fly Patterns

Michael Thomas ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Thomas suffered a hamstring injury last Saturday but ultimately played through his questionable tag. Still, he played a season-low 41 snaps and received a season-low five targets. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track Thomas’ daily practice participation and estimated game status. If healthy, Thomas is more than capable of torching the Buccaneers’ 31st-ranked defense in pass DVOA (they don’t have a cornerback graded higher than 40th by PFF this season). However, he’s a risky cash-game option considering the chance for limited snaps with the Saints already having clinched a playoff spot.

Adam Thielen ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) and Stefon Diggs ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Thielen had at least five catches in each of his first 11 games, but has failed to reach that threshold in three of his last four outings. Diggs has made second-half slumps a career habit at this point, as he has eight career games with over 80 receiving yards in September and October, but just two-such games during the remaining months of the year. Still, both receivers could see their fair share of fantasy-friendly targets considering the Vikings have the slate’s fifth-highest implied total. They have a good matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed an additional 7.0 PPG and 21.6 passing yards per game on the road since the beginning of last season.

Juju Smith-Schuster ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) and Martavis Bryant ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Ben Roethlisberger sliced up the Texans’ 23rd-ranked defense in pass DVOA on Christmas Day. A home matchup against the Browns’ 28th-ranked unit doesn’t figure to be a much tougher challenge. Smith-Schuster was the early winner from Brown’s absence, as his seven targets trailed only Le’Veon Bell. Bryant converted his four targets into a 3-60-0 line and continues to offer big-play upside thanks to his average target distance of 15.9 yards – tied for the 10th-highest mark among all wide receivers.

Mike Evans ($7,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), DeSean Jackson ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), and Chris Godwin ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Jackson returned to practice Wednesday, but should still be considered questionable for Sunday. Godwin has stepped up when the Buccaneers have been without either of their top two receivers, posting a 5-68-0 line in Week 10 with Evans suspended and a 3-98-0 mark last Sunday. Evans has scored a touchdown or gained 100 yards in consecutive games, but could spend the majority of his afternoon across from Lattimore if D-Jax ultimately doesn’t suit up. Tampa’s air attack couldn’t get going last time these teams faced off in Week 9, as Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined to complete 15/28 passes for just 135 yards. Lattimore didn’t shadow Evans in that game, but the whole Saints secondary managed to make life difficult for him anyway:

Larry Fitzgerald ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Fitz’s 9-119-1 line last week against the Giants was a glorious way to potentially spend his final home game with the Cardinals. He’s not set up nearly as well this week, as he’ll travel to Seattle to take on a Seahawks defense that has limited him to under 70 yards in eight of their last 10 matchups. Fitzgerald has averaged 3.4 fewer DraftKings PPG on the road since 2014, while just three of his 11 games with 25-plus DraftKings points have come away from University of Phoenix Stadium. Drew Stanton could have a tough time behind PFF’s third-worst offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency against the Seahawks’ 13th-ranked defense in adjusted-sack rate.

Marquise Goodwin ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Goodwin has surpassed 95 receiving yards in three of his four games with Jimmy Garoppolo after reaching that threshold just twice in his other 50 career starts. He converted his 33 targets against the Titans, Texans, and Bears into a 24-319-0 line but came back to earth with a 3-37-0 line against the Jaguars last week. Standing 5’9″ and weighing just 185 pounds, Goodwin isn’t likely to ever emerge as a consistent red-zone threat, but the former track star has legitimate world-class speed and is plenty capable of taking advantage of a Rams defense that could be resting starters.

Marvin Jones ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Golden Tate ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), and Kenny Golladay ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): The Lions’ breakdown against the Bengals last week was undoubtedly aided by a depleted offensive line that was without center Travis Swanson (concussion, questionable), guard T.J. Lang (ankle, questionable), and right tackle Ricky Wagner (ankle, questionable). Stafford was pressured on 42.1 percent of his dropbacks against a similarly injury-depleted Bengals front seven. The matchup at the line of scrimmage won’t be much easier this week against the Packers’ ninth-ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate. If given time, Stafford has receivers capable of making plays against his team’s division rival, as Jones and Tate have posted respective lines of 18-388-4 and 17-230-1 against the Packers since 2016.

Doug Baldwin ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), Paul Richardson ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), and Tyler Lockett ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Baldwin racked up double-digit targets in each of the Seahawks’ first three games following their Week 6 bye, but has since failed to clear even seven looks in a game. He has the best matchup among the group this week considering Patrick Peterson hasn’t been following Baldwin into the slot in recent matchups, and Baldwin could also avoid Tyrann Mathieu if his services are needed at safety with the absence of Antoine Bethea (knee, IR) — PFF’s No. 12 overall safety this season. Baldwin is set up well at home and has taken advantage of the matchup in recent seasons, but anyone involved in the pass offense carries a low weekly floor given Russell Wilson has thrown for fewer than 150 yards in each of his past two games.

A.J. Green ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Green hasn’t had an easy time converting his elite volume into elite production in the Bengals’ injury-depleted and talent-deprived offense. Still, he’s set up well against a Ravens secondary he’s historically torched even with Jimmy Smith (Achilles, IR) active. Green’s average of 25.5 DraftKings PPG against the Ravens since 2014 is his highest mark against every team he’s played at least twice. A season-low price tag on DraftKings bodes well for his matchup against a Ravens defense that has continued to struggle without their No. 1 cornerback:

  • Ravens defense with Smith since 2014 (47 games): 19.9 PPG, 227 pass yards, 6 games of 30+ points
  • Without Smith since 2014 (16 games): 22.6 PPG, 248 pass yards, 4 games of 30+ points

Randall Cobb ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), Geronimo Allison ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), and Michael Clark ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Davante Adams remains in the concussion protocol and head coach Mike McCarthy doesn’t expect Jordy Nelson (shoulder) to suit up Sunday. Their potential absences would lead to Cobb, Allison, and 6’6″ 217-pound former basketball player Michael Clark in 3-WR sets. The whole offense carries a relatively low ceiling with Brett Hundley under center, as they’ve scored 17 or fewer points in five of his nine games with at least 20 pass attempts this season. Cobb’s status as the team’s featured receiver also isn’t ideal, as he’s averaged 1.3 fewer DraftKings PPG with Nelson sidelined since 2014 despite an increase in target share. PFF’s No.11 cornerback Darius Slay has spent just one percent of his snaps in the slot this season, meaning he’ll spend most of his time across from Allison and Clark.

Sterling Shepard ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Shepard has been limited in practice with a neck injury, but is tentatively expected to suit up Sunday. He’s racked up 24 targets over the last two weeks and could see an even larger role if Evan Engram (ribs, questionable) is ultimately unable to play. It’s a tough matchup against the Redskins’ fifth-ranked defense in DVOA vs. WR1s, and nickel back Kendall Fuller has allowed the second-fewest yards allowed per cover snaps among full-time slot corners this season.

Josh Doctson ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) and Jamison Crowder ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple touchdowns in six of his last seven games. He now sets his sights on the Giants’ 29th-ranked scoring defense that ranks among the bottom-four units in both average DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to opposing wide receiver units this season. Crowder carries a decent floor considering he’s caught at least four passes in seven of his last eight games. Doctson saw a career-high 13 targets in Week 16, but produced a mediocre 2-61-1 line with the touchdown coming off a blown coverage. Both receivers could still see plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities against a Giants defense that ranks among the bottom-three units in both touchdowns and passes of 40-plus yards allowed this season.

Brandin Cooks ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Chris Hogan ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), and Danny Amendola ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): The whole Patriots pass offense carries a high ceiling thanks to a slate-high implied total of 30.25 points. Hogan continues to practice in a limited fashion but there’s been no suggestion from the team and reporters alike that he’ll return to the field Sunday. Cooks has seen a larger increase in production and targets compared to Amendola and has a good matchup against Morris Claiborne. PFF’s 103rd-highest graded cornerback has had a particularly difficult time slowing down field stretchers, including Cooks:

  • Tyreek Hill: 9 tgts, 6-185-2
  • Kenny Stills: 9 tgts, 6-85-2
  • DeSean Jackson: 10 tgts, 6-82-0
  • Cooks: 9 tgts, 6-93-0

Josh Gordon ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) and Corey Coleman ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): A league-high 41.2 percent of Gordon’s targets have been thrown 20-plus yards downfield, but his combined 7-66-0 line over the past two weeks demonstrates his low floor with DeShone Kizer under center. Kizer has thrown a league-high 32 interceptable passes this season (PlayerProfiler) and his average of 4.07 adjusted yards per attempt is the fifth-worst mark from a rookie quarterback ever (min. 15 starts). Coleman hasn’t surpassed six targets in a game since Gordon’s return, and the whole passing offense will have their hands full with the Steelers’ 10th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. WR1s and WR2s.

Michael Crabtree ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Amari Cooper ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Head coach Jack Del Rio said Crabtree’s workload against the Eagles last Monday night was affected by a late-game hamstring tweak. This didn’t translate to more work for Cooper, although he managed to convert his four targets into a 3-66-1 line. Both receivers have about the worst matchup imaginable against a playoff-hungry Chargers defense that has three corners and two edge rushers graded among the top-12 players at their position by PFF.

Jarvis Landry ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), DeVante Parker ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), and Kenny Stills ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Landry has at least five catches in every game this season and is one of just 10 receivers with at least 20 targets inside the red zone. Meanwhile, Parker has been fed double-digit targets in consecutive weeks after not reaching that threshold since Week 2 and Stills has stayed steady with at least six targets in six of his last seven games. Their matchup against the Bills’ reverse funnel defense isn’t great on paper, but both Parker and Stills could benefit from the absence of E.J. Gaines (knee, questionable). Landry has a good matchup in the slot regardless of Gaines’ presence, as Bills nickel back Leonard Johnson has allowed the second and third-most receptions and yards, respectively, among all full-time slot corners this season.

Marqise Lee ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), Allen Hurns ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel), Dede Westbrook ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), and Keelan Cole ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Lee is believed to be dealing with a multi-week ankle injury and it’d be surprising if he suits up Sunday with the Jaguars having already clinched the AFC South. Hurns seems more likely to return after practicing all of last week before not suiting up Sunday. Jaelen Strong (ACL, out) is done for the season, so Westbrook and Cole will continue to see plenty of work in the team’s 2- and 3-WR sets even if Hurns is able to return. Cole has benefited the most from the injury-riddled receiving room, converting his 28 targets over the last four weeks into a combined 19-442-3 line. The whole passing offense has a great matchup against the Titans’ 28th-ranked defense in pass DVOA.

Devin Funchess ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Funchess’ lingering shoulder injury is perhaps worse than he’s let on, as he’s converted his last eight targets into a combined 4-30-0 line against the underwhelming Packers and Buccaneers defenses in Weeks 15 and 16. He’s worked as the offense’s No. 3 receiver during the stretch, as both Christian McCaffrey (11) and Greg Olsen (18) have been fed targets over the past two weeks. Low floors are a reality for the third receiving option in a run-first offense, as Cam Newton joins DeShone Kizer and Tyrod Taylor as the only full-time quarterbacks with at least eight games with fewer than 200 passing yards this season.

The Model Wide Receivers

There are several wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two receivers standing out among multiple models:

    • Demaryius Thomas ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
    • T.Y. Hilton ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)

Thomas’ status is dependent on whether Emmanuel Sanders (ankle, questionable) is ultimately able to suit up. Paxton Lynch (ankle, probable) is expected to start at QB, which hasn’t been bad business for Thomas in the past. He’s averaged eight targets per game and caught at least five passes in each of Lynch’s four career games. Also working in Thomas’ favor is his status as a home favorite, as he’s averaged 18.3 DraftKings PPG with a +2.9 Plus/Minus and 60 percent Consistency Rating when favored at Mile High since 2014.

The Chiefs haven’t exactly been a secondary to fear over the past two seasons – especially on the road:

  • Chiefs at Arrowhead since 2016 (16 games): 16.3 PPG, 230.7 passing yards, 0 games of 30+ points
  • On the road (15 games): 24.3 PPG, 266.2 passing yards, 4 games of 30+ points

Marcus Peters doesn’t move from his spot at left cornerback for any receiver, meaning Thomas should run roughly 68.5 percent of his snaps against old-man Darrelle Revis and Steven Nelson. Neither player is graded among PFF’s top-90 cover corners this season. The Chiefs rank among the bottom-two defenses in both DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to opposing wide receiver units this season. Thomas’ +2.29 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is the third-highest mark among all wide receiver sin Sunday’s slate.

T.Y. Hilton ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Hilton is coming off a brutal four-game stretch against the Ravens, Jaguars, Broncos, and Bills (in a blizzard). He couldn’t ask for a better get-right spot at home against the a Texans defense that has been absolutely gashed by slot receivers this season:

  • Larry Fitzgerald: 10 targets, 9-91-1
  • Keelan Cole: 9 tgts, 7-186-1
  • Doug Baldwin: 10 tgts, 6-54-0
  • Cooper Kupp: 7 tgts, 6-47-0
  • Juju Smith-Schuster: 7 tgts, 6-75-1

Hilton torched the Texans for 175 yards and two touchdowns back in Week 9 and his salary on DraftKings is well below his $6,700 mark he sported prior to the aforementioned miserable four-game stretch. The Texans’ league-worst scoring defense has allowed three additional receptions of 40-plus yards than the next-closest unit. Hilton is the top-rated receivers in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model.

Positional Breakdowns & Tools

Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.

• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends

Good luck this week!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.

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The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.

And just like that: Week 17 is here. Thus far, the Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys starters are tentatively expected to either rest or play limited snaps in Week 17. Be sure to stay on top of who is motivated in Week 17, and as always, check out our Vegas line and Market Share breakdowns to stay on top of Vegas and workload-related trends heading into Sunday.

Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 16-game DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.

The Big Three

We won’t see Antonio Brown (calf, out) again until the AFC Divisional Round at the earliest.This leaves us with three receivers at the top of DraftKings and FanDuel’s pricing totem pole:

  • Julio Jones ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
  • Keenan Allen ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
  • DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)

We have a receiver with the most-tantalizing ceiling in all of sports, a target hog primed to complete the first 16-game season of his career, along with the league’s latest stud receiver hindered by a revolving door at quarterback.

Is Mt. Saint Julio capable of erupting twice in one season?

Jones’ 7-149-0 line against the Saints last week was one of his finest performances of the season, given the majority of his production came against stud rookie Marshon Lattimore, PFF’s No. 5 overall corner. Ability has never been the question for the league’s most physically gifted receiver and it’s hard to be anything but ecstatic about his workload. Jones ranks among the league’s top five receivers in overall targets, targets inside the 10-yard line, and passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.

Next up is a matchup against a Panthers defense that hasn’t exactly slowed Jones down since losing No. 1 corner Josh Norman. He’s posted 6-118-0, 12-300-1, and 4-60-0 lines on the Panthers since the beginning of 2016, regularly overcoming both James Bradberry and Daryl Worley – PFF’s 105th- and 89th-highest graded cornerbacks this season. It would behoove the Falcons to feed one of just three active receivers to average at least 20 DraftKings points per game (PPG) at home since 2014 in a must-win game. Jones is plenty capable of defeating a Panthers defense that has allowed the fifth-most average PPG to opposing wide receiver units this season.

Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to view Jones’ ownership levels at various contest sizes. You can analyze our DFS Contests Dashboard to see how the industry’s elite treat one of the game’s premier talents against a potentially overmatched Panthers defense.

The Keenan factor.

Allen’s 5-63-0 performance (not including an interception!) last week against the Jets marked just the sixth time in 22 games with double-digit targets that he didn’t score a touchdown or surpass 100 yards. Another big workload should be on the horizon with the continued absence of Hunter Henry (kidney, IR). The Chargers will need their No. 1 receiver more than ever with the team fighting for their playoff lives. Allen’s matchup against the Raiders is far from concerning given their performance against some notable slot receivers this season:

  • Sterling Shepard: 6 tgts, 3-56-0
  • Danny Amendola: 9 tgts, 8-66-1
  • Jarvis Landry: 7 tgts, 6-32-1
  • Jeremy Maclin: 8 tgts, 6-43-0
  • Jamison Crowder: 6 tgts, 6-52-0

The primary culprit has been nickel back T.J. Carrie, who has allowed the fifth-most yards per cover snap among full-time slot corners this season. He’s also one of just 11 slot corners to allow three-plus touchdowns. Also working in Allen’s favor is his status as a home favorite, a situation in which he’s averaged 20.4 DraftKings PPG with a +6.7 Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency Rating since 2014 (per our Trends tool).

Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Allen with Philip Rivers on Sunday.

Nuk + Indy = Trouble.

Hopkins’ Christmas Day miracle showcased his standout ability to make contested catches against great corners regardless of who’s under center. After dealing with Jalen Ramsey and Joe Haden in back-to-back weeks, Nuk should be excited to head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts’ 31st-ranked defense in pass DVOA. They will once again be without No. 1 corner Rashaan Melvin (hand, IR) – PFF’s No. 19 overall defensive back this season. The Colts couldn’t slow down Hopkins earlier this season even with Melvin healthy:

Despite a rotating cast of characters at quarterback for the Texans, Hopkins has managed to score a touchdown or catch at least seven passes for 70-plus yards in every game this season. The league’s leader in targets ranks among the top-10 receivers in targets inside the 10-yard line and passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, meaning his ridiculous 35.2 percent target share comes with plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities as well. Nuk has already scored a career-high 13 touchdowns this season and he’s just 143 yards and 15 receptions away from reaching his 2015 thresholds in those marks as well. He has as good a chance as ever for a massive day against a Colts defense that has allowed league-high marks in yards per attempt and 20-plus yard receptions this season.

Fly Patterns

Michael Thomas ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Thomas suffered a hamstring injury last Saturday but ultimately played through his questionable tag. Still, he played a season-low 41 snaps and received a season-low five targets. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track Thomas’ daily practice participation and estimated game status. If healthy, Thomas is more than capable of torching the Buccaneers’ 31st-ranked defense in pass DVOA (they don’t have a cornerback graded higher than 40th by PFF this season). However, he’s a risky cash-game option considering the chance for limited snaps with the Saints already having clinched a playoff spot.

Adam Thielen ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) and Stefon Diggs ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Thielen had at least five catches in each of his first 11 games, but has failed to reach that threshold in three of his last four outings. Diggs has made second-half slumps a career habit at this point, as he has eight career games with over 80 receiving yards in September and October, but just two-such games during the remaining months of the year. Still, both receivers could see their fair share of fantasy-friendly targets considering the Vikings have the slate’s fifth-highest implied total. They have a good matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed an additional 7.0 PPG and 21.6 passing yards per game on the road since the beginning of last season.

Juju Smith-Schuster ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) and Martavis Bryant ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Ben Roethlisberger sliced up the Texans’ 23rd-ranked defense in pass DVOA on Christmas Day. A home matchup against the Browns’ 28th-ranked unit doesn’t figure to be a much tougher challenge. Smith-Schuster was the early winner from Brown’s absence, as his seven targets trailed only Le’Veon Bell. Bryant converted his four targets into a 3-60-0 line and continues to offer big-play upside thanks to his average target distance of 15.9 yards – tied for the 10th-highest mark among all wide receivers.

Mike Evans ($7,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), DeSean Jackson ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), and Chris Godwin ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Jackson returned to practice Wednesday, but should still be considered questionable for Sunday. Godwin has stepped up when the Buccaneers have been without either of their top two receivers, posting a 5-68-0 line in Week 10 with Evans suspended and a 3-98-0 mark last Sunday. Evans has scored a touchdown or gained 100 yards in consecutive games, but could spend the majority of his afternoon across from Lattimore if D-Jax ultimately doesn’t suit up. Tampa’s air attack couldn’t get going last time these teams faced off in Week 9, as Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined to complete 15/28 passes for just 135 yards. Lattimore didn’t shadow Evans in that game, but the whole Saints secondary managed to make life difficult for him anyway:

Larry Fitzgerald ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Fitz’s 9-119-1 line last week against the Giants was a glorious way to potentially spend his final home game with the Cardinals. He’s not set up nearly as well this week, as he’ll travel to Seattle to take on a Seahawks defense that has limited him to under 70 yards in eight of their last 10 matchups. Fitzgerald has averaged 3.4 fewer DraftKings PPG on the road since 2014, while just three of his 11 games with 25-plus DraftKings points have come away from University of Phoenix Stadium. Drew Stanton could have a tough time behind PFF’s third-worst offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency against the Seahawks’ 13th-ranked defense in adjusted-sack rate.

Marquise Goodwin ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Goodwin has surpassed 95 receiving yards in three of his four games with Jimmy Garoppolo after reaching that threshold just twice in his other 50 career starts. He converted his 33 targets against the Titans, Texans, and Bears into a 24-319-0 line but came back to earth with a 3-37-0 line against the Jaguars last week. Standing 5’9″ and weighing just 185 pounds, Goodwin isn’t likely to ever emerge as a consistent red-zone threat, but the former track star has legitimate world-class speed and is plenty capable of taking advantage of a Rams defense that could be resting starters.

Marvin Jones ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Golden Tate ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), and Kenny Golladay ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): The Lions’ breakdown against the Bengals last week was undoubtedly aided by a depleted offensive line that was without center Travis Swanson (concussion, questionable), guard T.J. Lang (ankle, questionable), and right tackle Ricky Wagner (ankle, questionable). Stafford was pressured on 42.1 percent of his dropbacks against a similarly injury-depleted Bengals front seven. The matchup at the line of scrimmage won’t be much easier this week against the Packers’ ninth-ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate. If given time, Stafford has receivers capable of making plays against his team’s division rival, as Jones and Tate have posted respective lines of 18-388-4 and 17-230-1 against the Packers since 2016.

Doug Baldwin ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), Paul Richardson ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), and Tyler Lockett ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Baldwin racked up double-digit targets in each of the Seahawks’ first three games following their Week 6 bye, but has since failed to clear even seven looks in a game. He has the best matchup among the group this week considering Patrick Peterson hasn’t been following Baldwin into the slot in recent matchups, and Baldwin could also avoid Tyrann Mathieu if his services are needed at safety with the absence of Antoine Bethea (knee, IR) — PFF’s No. 12 overall safety this season. Baldwin is set up well at home and has taken advantage of the matchup in recent seasons, but anyone involved in the pass offense carries a low weekly floor given Russell Wilson has thrown for fewer than 150 yards in each of his past two games.

A.J. Green ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Green hasn’t had an easy time converting his elite volume into elite production in the Bengals’ injury-depleted and talent-deprived offense. Still, he’s set up well against a Ravens secondary he’s historically torched even with Jimmy Smith (Achilles, IR) active. Green’s average of 25.5 DraftKings PPG against the Ravens since 2014 is his highest mark against every team he’s played at least twice. A season-low price tag on DraftKings bodes well for his matchup against a Ravens defense that has continued to struggle without their No. 1 cornerback:

  • Ravens defense with Smith since 2014 (47 games): 19.9 PPG, 227 pass yards, 6 games of 30+ points
  • Without Smith since 2014 (16 games): 22.6 PPG, 248 pass yards, 4 games of 30+ points

Randall Cobb ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), Geronimo Allison ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), and Michael Clark ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Davante Adams remains in the concussion protocol and head coach Mike McCarthy doesn’t expect Jordy Nelson (shoulder) to suit up Sunday. Their potential absences would lead to Cobb, Allison, and 6’6″ 217-pound former basketball player Michael Clark in 3-WR sets. The whole offense carries a relatively low ceiling with Brett Hundley under center, as they’ve scored 17 or fewer points in five of his nine games with at least 20 pass attempts this season. Cobb’s status as the team’s featured receiver also isn’t ideal, as he’s averaged 1.3 fewer DraftKings PPG with Nelson sidelined since 2014 despite an increase in target share. PFF’s No.11 cornerback Darius Slay has spent just one percent of his snaps in the slot this season, meaning he’ll spend most of his time across from Allison and Clark.

Sterling Shepard ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Shepard has been limited in practice with a neck injury, but is tentatively expected to suit up Sunday. He’s racked up 24 targets over the last two weeks and could see an even larger role if Evan Engram (ribs, questionable) is ultimately unable to play. It’s a tough matchup against the Redskins’ fifth-ranked defense in DVOA vs. WR1s, and nickel back Kendall Fuller has allowed the second-fewest yards allowed per cover snaps among full-time slot corners this season.

Josh Doctson ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) and Jamison Crowder ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple touchdowns in six of his last seven games. He now sets his sights on the Giants’ 29th-ranked scoring defense that ranks among the bottom-four units in both average DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to opposing wide receiver units this season. Crowder carries a decent floor considering he’s caught at least four passes in seven of his last eight games. Doctson saw a career-high 13 targets in Week 16, but produced a mediocre 2-61-1 line with the touchdown coming off a blown coverage. Both receivers could still see plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities against a Giants defense that ranks among the bottom-three units in both touchdowns and passes of 40-plus yards allowed this season.

Brandin Cooks ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Chris Hogan ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), and Danny Amendola ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): The whole Patriots pass offense carries a high ceiling thanks to a slate-high implied total of 30.25 points. Hogan continues to practice in a limited fashion but there’s been no suggestion from the team and reporters alike that he’ll return to the field Sunday. Cooks has seen a larger increase in production and targets compared to Amendola and has a good matchup against Morris Claiborne. PFF’s 103rd-highest graded cornerback has had a particularly difficult time slowing down field stretchers, including Cooks:

  • Tyreek Hill: 9 tgts, 6-185-2
  • Kenny Stills: 9 tgts, 6-85-2
  • DeSean Jackson: 10 tgts, 6-82-0
  • Cooks: 9 tgts, 6-93-0

Josh Gordon ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) and Corey Coleman ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): A league-high 41.2 percent of Gordon’s targets have been thrown 20-plus yards downfield, but his combined 7-66-0 line over the past two weeks demonstrates his low floor with DeShone Kizer under center. Kizer has thrown a league-high 32 interceptable passes this season (PlayerProfiler) and his average of 4.07 adjusted yards per attempt is the fifth-worst mark from a rookie quarterback ever (min. 15 starts). Coleman hasn’t surpassed six targets in a game since Gordon’s return, and the whole passing offense will have their hands full with the Steelers’ 10th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. WR1s and WR2s.

Michael Crabtree ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Amari Cooper ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Head coach Jack Del Rio said Crabtree’s workload against the Eagles last Monday night was affected by a late-game hamstring tweak. This didn’t translate to more work for Cooper, although he managed to convert his four targets into a 3-66-1 line. Both receivers have about the worst matchup imaginable against a playoff-hungry Chargers defense that has three corners and two edge rushers graded among the top-12 players at their position by PFF.

Jarvis Landry ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), DeVante Parker ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), and Kenny Stills ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Landry has at least five catches in every game this season and is one of just 10 receivers with at least 20 targets inside the red zone. Meanwhile, Parker has been fed double-digit targets in consecutive weeks after not reaching that threshold since Week 2 and Stills has stayed steady with at least six targets in six of his last seven games. Their matchup against the Bills’ reverse funnel defense isn’t great on paper, but both Parker and Stills could benefit from the absence of E.J. Gaines (knee, questionable). Landry has a good matchup in the slot regardless of Gaines’ presence, as Bills nickel back Leonard Johnson has allowed the second and third-most receptions and yards, respectively, among all full-time slot corners this season.

Marqise Lee ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), Allen Hurns ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel), Dede Westbrook ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), and Keelan Cole ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Lee is believed to be dealing with a multi-week ankle injury and it’d be surprising if he suits up Sunday with the Jaguars having already clinched the AFC South. Hurns seems more likely to return after practicing all of last week before not suiting up Sunday. Jaelen Strong (ACL, out) is done for the season, so Westbrook and Cole will continue to see plenty of work in the team’s 2- and 3-WR sets even if Hurns is able to return. Cole has benefited the most from the injury-riddled receiving room, converting his 28 targets over the last four weeks into a combined 19-442-3 line. The whole passing offense has a great matchup against the Titans’ 28th-ranked defense in pass DVOA.

Devin Funchess ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Funchess’ lingering shoulder injury is perhaps worse than he’s let on, as he’s converted his last eight targets into a combined 4-30-0 line against the underwhelming Packers and Buccaneers defenses in Weeks 15 and 16. He’s worked as the offense’s No. 3 receiver during the stretch, as both Christian McCaffrey (11) and Greg Olsen (18) have been fed targets over the past two weeks. Low floors are a reality for the third receiving option in a run-first offense, as Cam Newton joins DeShone Kizer and Tyrod Taylor as the only full-time quarterbacks with at least eight games with fewer than 200 passing yards this season.

The Model Wide Receivers

There are several wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two receivers standing out among multiple models:

    • Demaryius Thomas ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
    • T.Y. Hilton ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)

Thomas’ status is dependent on whether Emmanuel Sanders (ankle, questionable) is ultimately able to suit up. Paxton Lynch (ankle, probable) is expected to start at QB, which hasn’t been bad business for Thomas in the past. He’s averaged eight targets per game and caught at least five passes in each of Lynch’s four career games. Also working in Thomas’ favor is his status as a home favorite, as he’s averaged 18.3 DraftKings PPG with a +2.9 Plus/Minus and 60 percent Consistency Rating when favored at Mile High since 2014.

The Chiefs haven’t exactly been a secondary to fear over the past two seasons – especially on the road:

  • Chiefs at Arrowhead since 2016 (16 games): 16.3 PPG, 230.7 passing yards, 0 games of 30+ points
  • On the road (15 games): 24.3 PPG, 266.2 passing yards, 4 games of 30+ points

Marcus Peters doesn’t move from his spot at left cornerback for any receiver, meaning Thomas should run roughly 68.5 percent of his snaps against old-man Darrelle Revis and Steven Nelson. Neither player is graded among PFF’s top-90 cover corners this season. The Chiefs rank among the bottom-two defenses in both DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to opposing wide receiver units this season. Thomas’ +2.29 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is the third-highest mark among all wide receiver sin Sunday’s slate.

T.Y. Hilton ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Hilton is coming off a brutal four-game stretch against the Ravens, Jaguars, Broncos, and Bills (in a blizzard). He couldn’t ask for a better get-right spot at home against the a Texans defense that has been absolutely gashed by slot receivers this season:

  • Larry Fitzgerald: 10 targets, 9-91-1
  • Keelan Cole: 9 tgts, 7-186-1
  • Doug Baldwin: 10 tgts, 6-54-0
  • Cooper Kupp: 7 tgts, 6-47-0
  • Juju Smith-Schuster: 7 tgts, 6-75-1

Hilton torched the Texans for 175 yards and two touchdowns back in Week 9 and his salary on DraftKings is well below his $6,700 mark he sported prior to the aforementioned miserable four-game stretch. The Texans’ league-worst scoring defense has allowed three additional receptions of 40-plus yards than the next-closest unit. Hilton is the top-rated receivers in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model.

Positional Breakdowns & Tools

Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.

• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends

Good luck this week!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.

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