In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three wide receivers near the top of the Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- DK Metcalf
- Christian Watson
- Corey Davis
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
DK Metcalf ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) vs. New York Jets (42.5 total)
We finally got to see DK Metcalf on the field without Tyler Lockett, and it was pretty much what we expected. He caught seven of nine targets for 81 yards, seeing 23.7% of team targets and 33.1% of team air yards.
The usage was pretty on par with where it’s been all season, but that’s not a bad thing. Metcalf has a very valuable role, running a route on about every dropback with 26% of team targets and a 25% target rate per route run. The Seahawks offense flopped as a whole last week, so hopefully, they can turn it around this week.
The matchup is difficult, as the Jets boast one of the best secondaries in the league. They’ve allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers and just 6.8 yards per target. They haven’t allowed a WR1 scoring week since Week 8, so hopefully, Metcalf can break the trend.
This is banking on talent and usage over matchup, as Metcalf will have to overcome coverage from stingy corners Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.
He’s the top play in our Cash Game Model.
Christian Watson ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings (48 total)
It’s important to monitor Christian Watson’s status throughout the weekend, as he’s currently questionable for this matchup. He left last week’s game against Miami with a hip injury after six of eight targets for 49 yards.
He’s become Green Bay’s top option when healthy, as he’s running a route on practically every dropback and saw a 40% target rate per route run last week. They scheme him targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field and allow him to turn on the burners and take cornerbacks deep.
Watson has been banged up all season long, dealing with hamstring, ankle, and hip injuries while also sustaining a concussion. Watson has big play ability, which makes him an ideal tournament target. We also likely won’t get a report on whether he’s playing until after the 1:00 games have kicked off on Sunday, which will keep his ownership very low.
Minnesota is allowing the most DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers, making this a great spot if Watson does suit up. He’s the top receiver in our Tournament Model.
Corey Davis ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): New York Jets (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks (42.5 total)
Corey Davis looked fully recovered from his concussion last week, running a route on every dropback and seeing seven targets. He caught only two balls for 14 yards, but the usage was promising.
Davis was injured early in Mike White’s last start, but in his last full game with White under center in Minnesota, Davis saw ten targets, catching five balls for 85 yards. It’s been an up-and-down season for Davis, but he’s been an important part of the offense when he’s on the field.
We saw Davis’ price up in the high $4,000’s all season long, and then he plummeted to the low $4,000s after his injury. After a seven-target game and a quarterback upgrade, we’re seeing Davis drop to $3,700 on DraftKings. It doesn’t make sense, but it is a good opportunity to take advantage of. The matchup is difficult, as Seattle has allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers.
Davis is the top receiver in Sean Koerner’s and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Justin Jefferson ($9,500 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Green Bay Packers (48 total)
Justin Jefferson wreaked havoc on this Green Bay secondary when these teams matched up in Week 1, catching nine of eleven targets for 184 yards and two touchdowns en route to his season-high 42.4 DraftKings points. It was one of eight games on the year in which Jefferson topped 30 DraftKings points, highlighting how amazing of a season he’s having.
Green Bay has actually allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers on the year, so it’s interesting to see which trend will continue. Whether Jefferson shreds this defense again or Green Bay proves to be able to limit opposing receivers.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle ripped off a bunch of big plays last week, so my money is on Jefferson.
Garrett Wilson ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): New York Jets (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks (42.5 total)
Unsurprisingly, Garrett Wilson didn’t do much in the rain with Zach Wilson under center last week. He caught four of nine targets for 30 yards and lost a fumble. It was one of his worst performances of the season, which seems to be correlated to the man under center for New York.
The good news is that Mike White is back under center for the Jets this week. In his three games with White, Wilson has stat lines of 5/95/2, 8/162/0, and 6/78, averaging ten targets per game. Seattle has been solid against boundary receivers, allowing the least fantasy points per game on opposing WR1 targets.
However, Wilson is fairly cheap, and should see a ton of volume.
Drake London ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (41.5 total)
Drake London has seemed to establish a rapport with Desmond Ridder, as he’s seen 11 and nine targets in back-to-back weeks. He caught seven balls for 70 yards two weeks ago and seven balls for 96 yards last week. He’s running a route on the majority of dropbacks and has seen a 38% and 28% target rate per route run over the past two weeks.
Arizona has actually been solid to opposing wide receivers, allowing just 7.8 yards per target and a 2.3% touchdown rate to opposing boundary receivers. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard game to a wide receiver which isn’t a great sign for London.
However, he’s cheap and should see around 10 targets.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Understanding Ceiling Projections for NFL DFS Tournaments
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs
Steelers-Browns Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
Week 4 NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
