In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three wide receivers near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Rashee Rice
- DeVante Parker
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Washington Commanders (49.5 total)
Brandon Aiyuk was practically uninvolved in the offense in their Week 15 win over the Cardinals, catching three of five targets for 37 yards. He bounced back in last week’s loss to the Ravens, catching six of seven targets for 113 yards. He’s exceeded 100 yards receiving in six different games this year while topping 20 DraftKings points five different times.
He gets a great matchup this week against Washington, who has allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers. Aiyuk runs over 80% of his routes from the perimeter, and I’ve been highlighting perimeter receivers against Washington for months now.
The Commanders have allowed the most yards per game, second most yards per target, and third-highest touchdown rate to perimeter receivers. Washington also uses the eighth-highest rate of man coverage in the league, and Aiyuk has a 27% target rate per route run against man coverage.
He’s the top option in our Tournament Model this weekend.
Rashee Rice ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (44 total)
Despite seeing 12 targets, Rashee Rice flopped for those who rostered him in Christmas Day DFS, as he caught just six balls for 57 yards.
He’s seen 28% of the team targets over the past five games and gets a plus matchup here against Cincinnati. We’ve seen the Bengals get shredded by receivers in recent weeks, with Jordan Addison exceeding 100 yards and catching two touchdowns and George Pickens going for 195 yards and two scores.
Cincinnati also runs man coverage on over a quarter of their dropbacks, with Rice seeing a whopping 42% target rate per route run against man.
Volume is no question, and this matchup profiles nicely for Rice.
He’s the top option in our Cash Game Model.
DeVante Parker ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): New England Patriots (+14 ) at Buffalo Bills (40 total)
DeVante Parker has quietly seen healthy volume as of late, with five, nine, five, and five targets over the past four games. He’s coming off a season-high 65 yards, and Hunter Henry has been limited in practice this week, which could expose Parker to some red zone work.
Parker is running a route on practically every dropback, appearing on 91% and 93% of dropbacks over the past two weeks. Buffalo has allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, but New England will likely see an elevated number of pass attempts here.
With such a cheap price tag, we don’t need much from Parker to pay off his tag. He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, and is the top option in both Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner’s Pro Models.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stefon Diggs ($8,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14) vs. New England Patriots (40 total)
There hasn’t been much production for Stefon Diggs lately, with less than nine DraftKings points in five of the past six games. This can be explained to an extent, as he had a boatload of brutal matchups and some game scripts that led Buffalo to not need to pass. Diggs still has 28% of the team targets since he started this poor streak.
He caught six of 12 targets for 58 yards and a score the last time these teams played, and Diggs has now caught a touchdown in each of the past three games against New England. The Patriots went above their season average for man coverage the first time these teams played, and we’ll likely see a similar approach. Diggs has a 35% target share against man coverage. People are tired of clicking him, and this feels like a good time to buy back in.
Curtis Samuel ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Washington Commanders (+13.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (49.5 total)
Curtis Samuel followed up his two-touchdown performance against the Rams with just one catch for 16 yards last week. He still saw six targets, but he was unable to take advantage of his usage.
Jacoby Brissett picked up a hamstring injury late in the week and is now questionable. Regardless of who is under center, we’ll likely see a heavy dose of pass attempts, as Washington is nearly a two-touchdown underdog. Samuel caught five passes for 52 yards and a touchdown last year when these teams played. He has a cheap tag on an offense that will likely see an elevated number of pass attempts.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick(s)
Nico Collins ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Houston Texans (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (44 total)
With C.J. Stroud out of the lineup for a little bit, people seemed to forget how elite Nico Collins‘ role is now. The last time we saw a full game with Collins and Stroud playing, Collins caught nine balls for 191 yards and a touchdown. With Tank Dell off the field and Stroud playing, Collins has seen a 28.5% target rate per route run and a 26% target share.
This is also a matchup to attack. as Tennessee is allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers, where Collins plays over 80% of his snaps. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to receivers, and there’s no reason to expect them to right the ship here.
Collins is currently barely projected to have ownership despite the elite role. I’m all over him this weekend.
