The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for the 13-game Week 17 slate to kick off the New Year.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. Denver Broncos – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes projects for the highest ceiling on the week in what looks to be a difficult on-paper matchup against the Denver Broncos, who rank seventh in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point home favorite in a matchup with a 45-point total, one of the highest on the slate. Leading a dangerous and hyper-effective offense, Mahomes handles under-center duties for one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 63%/37% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz).
He is tied for the third-highest passing frequency with the New York Jets while using a 26.5-second-per-snap play-calling scheme, which is also one of the highest in the league.
Mahomes should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 314.7 passing yards per game and a 66.9% completion rate. In a 24-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16, Mahomes passed for 224 yards and two touchdowns, also rushing for one pylon-reaching touchdown. If last week is any indication, Mahomes can easily reach an 85th-percentile outcome against a Denver Broncos defense that allowed 388 yards of offense in a 51-14 blowout to the Los Angeles Rams.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Mahomes appears in matchups above a 45-point total, he averages 26.75 actual DraftKings points, with a +3.51 Plus/Minus and a 58.8% consistency rating.
A more expensive stack, Mahomes should likely be paired with Travis Kelce and Broncos skill players in Jerry Jeudy, Latavius Murray, or Courtland Sutton as a bring-back.
With THE BLITZ, Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields projects for the highest ceiling in a road matchup with the Detroit Lions. Fields will likely benefit from the dome environment of Ford Field, facing a Lions defense ranked 28th in DVOA.
With a total of 52 points, which is the highest on the slate, this matchup certainly signals shootout potential, and although the Bears operate on a hyper-balanced 51%/49% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, look for Fields to potentially reach an 85th-percentile outcome given his dual-threat nature, averaging 154.8 passing yards per game and more than 10 rushing attempts per game, netting a 6.74 average per attempt.
The deep discount on DraftKings, combined with an ideal environment, warrants a second look from the second-year starter in an NFC North rivalry.
Top Value: Jared Goff vs. Chicago Bears – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Playing opposite to Justin Fields, Jared Goff projects as a top value option on DraftKings, leading a Lions offense in an NFC North rivalry against the Chicago Bears, who rank last in DVOA.
As mentioned, this matchup has the highest total on the slate, with plenty of shootout potential. Further, as 6-point home favorites, the Lions are on the outside looking in for a spot in the NFC playoff, sitting at 7-8 on the season and should likely keep the foot on the gas in what looks to be a must-win game.
According to PFF, the Bears also rank last in overall defense, which looks to be an ideal matchup for the former first-overall pick. Even with several backup quarterback options on the slate, Goff’s discounted price tag makes him a fantasy-relevant option, especially for a quarterback that is averaging 263.9 passing yards per game and has crossed the 300-passing yard mark in five games this season, including a Week 16 37-23 shootout loss to the Carolina Panthers.
Look for plenty of stacking options, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark in the Lions receiving corps and Bears skill players in Chase Claypool and David Montgomery all as viable bring-backs.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at Las Vegas Raiders – $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey again projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a Las Vegas Raiders defense that looks to have trouble defending the run, ranking 20th in rush DVOA.
In nine weeks as a member of the 49ers, McCaffrey is averaging 14.4 rushing attempts per game and 4.46 yards per carry, seeing 6.9 targets per game and 8.3 yards per reception, making him an all-purpose player, and integral to San Francisco’s success.
In a Week 16 37-20 win over the Washington Commanders, McCaffrey rushed for 46 yards on 15 attempts, finding the end zone once, and was targeted two times, catching two passes for 12 yards. Even with the sky-high price tag, McCaffrey can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome given his volume in the 49ers’ offense and versatile playmaking ability.
Further, San Francisco is a massive 9.5-point road favorite and should lean heavily on McCaffrey to close out the game should the 49ers be ahead late.
Top Value: Saquon Barkley vs. Indianapolis Colts – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Saquon Barkley projects as a top value in a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who rank 13th in rushing DVOA, which looks to be a more challenging matchup for the elite running back.
Despite the high price tag as a value option, Barkley is an integral part of the Giants’ offense, responsible for 61% of the rushing share, averaging 18.9 rushing attempts per game and 4.43 yards per carry. In addition, the high workload in the backfield, Barkley also averages 4.8 targets per game and 6.2 yards per reception, further adding to his fantasy relevance.
In the 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Eve, Barkley rushed for 84 yards on 14 attempts, finding the end zone once and also catching eight passes for 49 yards.
Barkley also has tremendous touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in 10 games this season, and despite the low 39-point total, the Giants, who are favored by 5.5-points will likely lean on the all-purpose running back to close out the game, should New York be ahead, adding to Barkley’s ability to be a fantasy-relevant option.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson vs. Green Bay Packers – $9,500 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Justin Jefferson projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 17, facing the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North rivalry matchup. Despite being the most expensive option on DraftKings, Jefferson looks to have a more difficult matchup this week, facing a stout Packers’ defense ranked eighth in pass DVOA.
One of the elite receiving options, Jefferson is responsible for a 30% target share and is the preferred option for Kirk Cousins, averaging 11.6 targets per game and 14.3 yards per reception. Further, look for Jefferson to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in 10 of the Vikings’ 15 games this season, and also recording a touchdown in seven games. In the 27-24 win over the New York Giants last Saturday, Jefferson was targeted 16 times, catching 12 passes for 133 yards and one touchdown, and looks to have consistent volume, seeing at least eight targets in 13 games.
Aside from the volume, Jefferson is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 26 red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, only behind Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Jefferson’s volume and touchdown upside consistently make him a prime candidate to have the slate-breaking ability and reach an 85th-percentile outcome, despite the difficult matchup.
Facing the Packers in Week 1 of the season, Jefferson was targeted 11 times, catching nine passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns. The upside is certainly there for Jefferson.
Top Value: Corey Davis at Seattle Seahawks – $3,700 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
New York Jets wide receiver Corey Davis projects as a top value option this week in a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who rank 21st in pass DVOA.
This season, the veteran Davis has a modest 14% target share behind Garrett Wilson, Tyler Conklin and Elijah Moore, seeing five targets per game and 16.9 yards per reception.
Davis, in recent weeks, has seen his volume increase, despite missing several games this season, with at least four targets in eight games. In a 19-3 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, Davis was targeted seven times, catching two passes for 14 yards. With the Jets opting for quarterback Mike White to take over the starting role, look for the prospect of more passing volume, with White averaging 43 attempts per game this season.
If the passing volume should continue for Davis, his digestible salary on DraftKings makes him a fantasy-viable option.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Denver Broncos – $8,100 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
If Patrick Mahomes reaches a ceiling outcome, expect Travis Kelce to have a significant role in the Chiefs’ offense and should also achieve a similar outcome. Kelce continues to be one of the more matchup-proof skill players in the league, projecting for the highest ceiling among tight ends, despite facing a more difficult Broncos defense, who rank fourth in pass DVOA
A likely unstoppable force, Kelce should continue to be the first-look option for Mahomes, who is responsible for a team-leading 24% target share and a 30% red zone target percentage. Kelce is averaging 13 yards per reception and eight targets per game this season. Of course, Kelce is also a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings.
He is in the ballpark (90+ receiving yards) in eight of the Chiefs’ first 15 games and should also be considered for his touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in seven games, already reaching a career-high 12 touchdowns this season.
The Chiefs’ stack is a very expensive one, but consistency and touchdown upside looks to be the main benefit in a high-total matchup.
Top Value: Tyler Conklin at Seattle Seahawks – $2,900 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Tyler Conklin projects as a top value at tight end given his discounted salary on DraftKings. Conklin has a modest 15% target share, which is second in the Jets’ receiving corps, averaging 5.1 targets per game and 9.2 yards per reception.
In a 19-3 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Conklin was targeted four times, catching four passes for 34 yards. With the consistent volume, Conklin becomes a salary relief option in a matchup with a 42.5-point total. As mentioned, with Mike White returning to handle under-center duties, look for the passing volume to likely benefit Conklin’s upside
Be sure to pair Schultz with Seahawks skill position players, especially DK Metcalf or Kenneth Walker.
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