The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Miami Dolphins – $7,700 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
In a star-studded field of elite quarterbacks, there are multiple strong pay-up options in our projections. Jalen Hurts is the most expensive and has the highest ceiling projection, but our projections indicate that Jackson will end up as the better value play since he’s $600 cheaper on DraftKings and $1,300 cheaper on FanDuel. Jackson has the top Projected Plus/Minus in our projections at quarterback this week on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. He has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel since he is so comparatively affordable.
Jackson led the Ravens to a huge win in San Francisco last Monday night, throwing for 252 yards and two touchdowns and running for 45 yards as well. Those definitely weren’t his best numbers of the season, but it was a strong showing on the road against an excellent defense. He has another tough matchup this week, but he does get to take on the Dolphins at home, where he has averaged 23.7 DraftKings points per game compared to 18.9 DraftKings points per game on the road.
This season, Jackson doesn’t have the rushing touchdowns that Hurts has provided, with just five rushing scores on the season. However, he has been very productive on the ground, averaging 52.4 rushing yards per game to go with his 223.8 passing yards per game. He has flourished in the new offense under Todd Monken and will look to continue his growth this week.
The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack against quarterbacks this season, but they have been beatable on the road by good quarterbacks. The marquee matchup between the Ravens and Dolphins has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate and brings the potential for plenty of points in both directions. Jackson has been great in that kind of environment, and he should be a great play at home this week as his team looks to lock up the top spot in the AFC Playoffs and pick up another statement win.
Top Value: Tyrod Taylor vs. Los Angeles Rams – $4,600 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Two veteran backups stepping into starting spots get the top two spots in our value projections this week, but I’m giving the nod here to Tyrod Taylor over Jacoby Brissett based mostly on his matchup. Taylor will take on the Rams while Brissett’s Commanders host the 49ers, who will be out to make their statement after losing last week.
Taylor has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BLITZ projections. Chris Raybon has him with the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in his projections, and when you combine them all together into an evenly-blended three-way aggregate, Taylor has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and has the highest Pts/Sal on the slate. On FanDuel, he’s not nearly as much of a bargain at $6,700, but he does have much lower ownership projections, which leads to potentially higher leverage.
After stepping in last week, Taylor almost led the Giants to a Christmas comeback in Philly. Ultimately, he came up just short, throwing an interception in the end zone as time expired. He finished 7-of-16 passing for 133 yards and a touchdown while adding 21 yards rushing. Taylor last played significant time in Week 6 and Week 7 when he started against the Bills and Commanders. In each of those two games, he threw for at least 200 passing yards and ran for at least 24 yards. He threw two touchdowns against the Commanders to lead the Giants to a 14-7 win and kept them close with the Bills, although they lost 14-9.
The Rams have been a top-10 matchup for opposing quarterbacks this season. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns against Los Angeles in four straight weeks and have totaled 27 touchdowns in 15 games this season. Brissett and Sam Howell had three touchdowns and 226 yards against the Rams in Week 15, and Derek Carr had 319 yards and three touchdown tosses against them last week.
This is a sneaky good matchup for Taylor, which is enough to give him the edge as the best value quarterback in Week 17, which will feature multiple quarterback swaps going into the last two weeks of the regular season.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at Washington Commanders – $9,600 on DraftKings, $11,000 on FanDuel
On FanDuel, Christian McCaffrey is priced to the ceiling, but he’s still too hot and in too good of a spot to completely overlook. On DraftKings, he’s underpriced and brings the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregated projections by a wide margin. He matches a slate-high 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel and also leads all running backs with 12 on DraftKings, along with a 95% Bargain Rating.
McCaffrey has been absolutely dominant this season and leads the NFL with 21 touchdowns, along with an average of 93.0 rushing yards and 35.8 receiving yards per game. He had over 100 yards rushing last week against Baltimore and has hit that plateau in four of his last five games. When you add in receiving yards, he has totaled 100 yards from scrimmage in nine of his last 10 contests while scoring nine touchdowns.
The Commanders are a great spot for the 49ers to lean on McCaffrey and get their offense back in gear. Opposing running backs have run wild against Washington in the last few weeks, scoring eight touchdowns in the last four weeks and averaging 130.8 rushing yards and 43.2 receiving yards over that span.
The 49ers have the highest implied team total of any team on Sunday’s slate, and McCaffrey should again deliver as a premium pay-up play in Week 17.
Top Value: Ezekiel Elliott – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
The Patriots’ season has been a huge disappointment overall, but they have ended up being a good landing spot for Zeke, who joined them late in the offseason but has emerged as their top running back since Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) went down for the season. Elliott has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections, and he sets up as a strong play in Buffalo.
Elliott has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games and finished last Sunday night’s win with nine catches on 11 targets for 33 yards and a touchdown. It’s a good thing he was so involved in the passing game since he only managed 27 yards on his 12 carries against a stout Broncos’ defensive front. He has at least four catches in each of his last four games and has been one of Bailey Zappe’s top check-down options.
The Patriots knocked off the Bills in their first meeting of the season, and they’ll look to do it again in the rematch this week in Orchard Park. They’ll have to rely on Elliott and the running game to keep the ball away from Josh Allen, but Zeke has also shown he can be involved heavily enough in the passing game to still be a strong play in that game script as well.
The Bills defense has been strong against running backs this season, allowing nine running back touchdowns all year. However, opposing running backs have averaged 42.9 receiving yards and 83.5 rushing yards against them on the year, which are solid enough totals that this isn’t a “stay away” matchup.
Zeke should bring good value this week and next week as he finishes out his one-year deal with the Patriots. He will be looking to show he has enough left to get another deal this offseason with New England or elsewhere and also has potential incentives in that contract that he’ll be trying to hit.
If you need to go cheaper than Elliott, Devin Singletary (highlighted here), Tyjae Spears, and Jaylen Warren are some of the best bargains based on our projections.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Rashee Rice vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $6,900 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Like at quarterback, there are many strong options to consider on a 26-team Sunday slate at wide receiver. Tyreek Hill still has a shot at history and may be without his second receiver, Jaylen Waddle, so he could be set up to go bonkers. However, my top ceiling pick goes to an emerging WR1, who has been a go-to play for me in my picks over the last few weeks. Rashee Rice of the Chiefs has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any receiver on FanDuel in the aggregate projections and the second-highest on DraftKings.
Rice has been cooking over the last five weeks for the Chiefs, stepping into the open spot left behind by Hill for a true No. 1 receiver. He has at least nine targets in each of those five games and has averaged 7.6 catches for 78.2 yards per game while scoring three touchdowns. Rice had a season-high 12 targets in the Chiefs’ loss to the Raiders last week and was only able to convert six to catches for 57 yards. The opportunity for much, much more was there, though, and this week, he should be in a great matchup to seize those chances and pile up fantasy points.
The last time we saw the Bengals’ secondary, they were getting soundly defeated by Mason Rudolph and the Steelers last Saturday. Steelers’ receivers finished that game with three total touchdowns, 11 catches, and 252 yards. Since Week 10, opposing receivers have averaged 198.3 yards per game against Cincinnati and have scored nine touchdowns.
The Chiefs offense needs to get its groove back in a hurry with the playoffs looming and at least one road game looking likely. Patrick Mahomes seems to have found a new go-to option in Rice, and his salary hasn’t quite caught up to his recent production, making him a great play to build around on Sunday.
Top Value: Zay Flowers vs. Miami Dolphins – $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
My top value pick for this week is another rookie receiver stepping into a large role in a productive offense. Zay Flowers has become a strong option for Lamar Jackson, and the two make a good stack this week against the Dolphins. Flowers has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel in the aggregated projections and the third-highest on DraftKings.
Flowers has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games by finding the end zone three times. He had an odd down game against the Jaguars during that stretch with just one catch when the Ravens went very run-heavy, but other than that has become Jackson’s go-to option at receiver. Last week, he bounced back with nine catches for 72 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers. On the season, he has four scores and has averaged 50.1 yards on 4.9 catches per game.
The Ravens will likely have to air it out a little bit to keep up with the Dolphins, and if they do, Flowers will likely be poised for plenty of targets once again. He has double-digit targets in two of his last three games, with only that Jaguars’ game as the outlier. Opposing receivers have 15 touchdowns in 15 games against Miami this season and have produced at least 175 yards in two of the last three weeks.
If you need to go cheaper than Flowers, Demario Douglas is a great bargain on DraftKings (also spotlighted in this week’s early look). He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregated projections on DraftKings. Rashid Shaheed, Darius Slayton, and Curtis Samuel also stand out as affordable options on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Downs, and Michael Wilson are also good bargains.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Philadelphia Eagles – $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
In a great role in the Cardinals offense, second-year tight end Trey McBride has emerged as almost an every-week play. His salary still hasn’t caught up to his performances, according to the aggregated projections, making him a very good play again this week against the Eagles. McBride has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at tight end on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Last week, McBride only had 31 yards against the Bears, but he still had six catches on eight targets. He has at least seven targets in six straight games. Since moving into the starting lineup in Week 8, McBride has averaged 7.1 catches for 71.6 yards per game while scoring two touchdowns and averaging 9.0 targets per contest.
The Eagles rank in the middle of the pack this year against tight ends, but McBride’s workload is so consistent that he’s virtually matchup-proof. Opposing tight ends have good games against the Eagles lately, totaling at least five catches per game against them in seven of their last eight games and averaging 60 yards per game over that span.
Top Value: Chigoziem Okonkwo at Houston Texans – $3,600 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
Okonkwo has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end in our aggregated projections on DraftKings for this week, behind only McBride. On FanDuel, he’s a little pricier, but he still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus for all tight ends under $5,500.
In the last few weeks, Okonkwo has stepped into a larger role for the Titans and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last four weeks on DraftKings and three of those contests on FanDuel. Okonkwo had his best game of the season last week, hauling in all six of his targets and totaling 63 yards, including a touchdown catch from Derrick Henry on an option play. He received at least six targets in three of his last four games and has totaled 17 catches on 21 targets over that span. With such a high catch rate, he’ll likely be very involved again this week whether Will Levis returns or Ryan Tannehill gets another start.
Okonkwo also gets a boost this week from a great matchup against the Texans, who have been a good matchup for tight ends all season. Opposing tight ends have averaged 6.7 catches for 62.9 yards per week with five total touchdowns against Houston’s defense. Opposing tight ends have also caught at least seven passes against Houston in five of their last seven games, so Okonkwo has a high ceiling this week.
