In this piece, I highlight tight ends that stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Travis Kelce
- Trey McBride
- Gerald Everett
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Travis Kelce ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (44 total)
Kansas City has dropped three of their last four and four of their last six, and we haven’t seen much production from Travis Kelce over this stretch. He hasn’t topped 20 DraftKings points since Week 7, with single-digit performances in back-to-back weeks.
However, the rough stretch has given us Kelce’s lowest price of the year in a smash matchup. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most receptions and yards per target to opposing tight ends and the highest catch rate.
Kelce has matched up with Lou Anarumo’s Cincinnati defense four times, and Kelce has found the end zone in three of the four contests.
He still has the highest ceiling projection at the position by over two points and is clearly the top dog. We may have a little bit of an ownership discount on him despite a season-low tag.
He’s the top tight end in our Tournament Model.
Trey McBride ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+12) at Philadelphia Eagles (48 total)
Even in a rough game for the entire offense, Trey McBride still saw eight targets and caught six balls. He was being used to block more than I would’ve liked, and his usage was very close to the line of scrimmage.
His usage is still elite, with a 27% target rate per route run and a 26% target share with Murray under center. This is a spot to attack, as Philadelphia has given up production to tight ends all year long.
They’ve allowed the 13th-most receptions per game and yards per target to the position, as well as the ninth-most DraftKings points per game.
McBride is second in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus among all tight ends.
He’s the top option in our Cash Game Model this weekend.
Gerald Everett ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at Denver Broncos (36.5 total)
Gerald Everett has taken on more of a role as of late, as the Los Angeles’ skill positions have been ravaged by injuries. Everett has seen eight targets in three straight games and has clearly been a go-to target for Easton Stick.
Donald Parham Jr. was inactive for last week’s game, which allowed Everett to run a route on a season-high 82% of the dropbacks. Hopefully, Parham will be inactive again, as we don’t need him to take work from Everett. If Parham does suit up, it doesn’t take Everett out of contention by any means, but it does diminish his outlook.
This matchup is as good as it gets, as Denver has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends. They’re also allowing the most yards per target and highest target rate to the position, making this an all-systems-go spot.
Everett leads the position in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus and is the top tight end in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
George Kittle ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Washington Commanders (49.5 total)
Despite not finding the end zone, George Kittle ran wild on Christmas, catching seven of 10 targets for 126 yards en route to 22.6 DraftKings points. It was his second time this year eclipsing the 20-point mark without reaching the end zone, as he’s surpassed 100 yards in three different games on the year.
Washington has been fairly strong against tight ends, allowing the 10th-fewest DraftKings points per game to the position. This has more to do with them being inept as a whole and not being able to stop other positions as opposed to them actually being strong against tight ends. It’s hard to poke holes in anyone on San Francisco this week, Kittle included.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick(s)
Dalton Schultz ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Houston Texans (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (44 total)
Dalton Schultz will go overlooked this week and is another member of this Houston passing game that benefits greatly from Stroud returning and Tank Dell being sidelined.
He still had fine games with Stroud out, catching four of five targets for 58 yards and eight of eleven targets for 61 yards.
With Stroud in the game and Dell out, Schultz has a 28% target rate per route run compared to 16% with Dell in the game. The Titans have allowed the fewest DraftKings points to opposing tight ends, but they have allowed the seventh-most yards per target. They’ve only allowed one touchdown, which feels a little flukey, in my opinion.
Schultz is affordable and will be low-owned while being a part of one of the best stacks of the weekend.
