In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Christian McCaffrey
- Kyren Williams
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Christian McCaffrey ($9,600 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Washington Commanders (49.5 total)
Despite a slow start and San Francisco’s offense struggling as a whole, Christian McCaffrey still delivered with 28.1 DraftKings points in their loss to Baltimore.
The negative game script opened up more usage for McCaffrey in the passing game, as he saw ten targets, catching six balls for 28 yards. We likely won’t see San Francisco in a negative script this week, as they’re nearly two-touchdown favorites against the Commanders.
The matchup is a smash for McCaffrey on the ground, as Washington has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs. The Commanders have allowed a back to exceed 100 scrimmage yards in seven straight games, and we just saw Breece Hall go for over 40 DraftKings points against them.
McCaffrey leads the position in Points/Salary, which is outrageous because he costs nearly $10,000.
He’s the top back in both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models and our Cash Game Model.
Kyren Williams ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at New York Giants (43.5 total)
Surprisingly, Kyren Williams had no role in the passing game for the Rams last week. He was still able to deliver a solid score, running 22 times for 104 yards and a score en route to 19.4 DraftKings points.
He’s had at least 21 carries in four straight games and is averaging 26.6 opportunities per game since returning from IR in Week 12. He leads all backs in opportunities per game since returning.
Williams should be efficient in this spot, as the Giants have allowed the fourth-most yards per carry to opposing backs this year. They’ve been slightly better in the fantasy point department, having surrendered the 12th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs.
Despite the high tag, Williams is tied for third in Points/Salary and ranks eighth in Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
His ownership will remain in check as most people opt for McCaffrey. Williams is the top back in our Tournament Model this weekend
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Jonathan Taylor ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (42.5 total)
With Zack Moss ruled out, Jonathan Taylor is set to handle another big workload for the Colts. Indianapolis got trounced by the Falcons last week, but Taylor still had 18 carries and saw one target. He was inefficient, totaling just 43 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Las Vegas has allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs, but they’ve been better since Antonio Pierce took over. Since Week 9, the Raiders have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per carry. This may not be a matchup where Taylor is efficient on a per-carry basis, but Taylor is capable of ripping off big runs. He should see enough volume to have multiple shots at an explosive play.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (38 total)
Travis Etienne Jr. and the Jags got trounced last week by Tampa Bay. This led to a light day for Etienne, as he took just six carries for 12 yards and caught all three of his targets for 19 yards. He’s been pretty comfortably in the four to six target range this year, with his carry number fluctuating depending on the game script.
Etienne gets a great matchup and, most likely, a positive game script. Jacksonville is nearly a touchdown favorite at home against Carolina, while the Panthers have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs. They haven’t been too bad on a per-carry basis, but they’ve faced a ton of volume on the ground and have allowed running backs to find the end zone at will.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Devin Singletary ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Houston Texans (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (44 total)
Devin Singletary was a popular play last week, and he burnt people. His poor performance was mostly due to Houston’s overall ineptitude with Case Keenum under center against a lethal Cleveland defense.
C.J. Stroud is back under center for Houston., and we just saw Singletary douse this defense in Week 15. He had 26 carries for 121 yards while catching four of five targets for 49 yards. Dameon Pierce mixed in a little bit in the first half last week, but Singletary still out-touched him 10-2 in the first half.
With Stroud back under center and Houston favored, it’s more likely they’re in a positive game script where Singletary sees as much volume as he can handle.
It’s not often that you can find backs this cheap with a legitimate 25-30 touch upside, which Singletary has. He’s a great salary saver at fairly low ownership in tournaments.
