The Week 17 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Drew Brees: $7,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
- Deshaun Watson: $6,700 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
- Dak Prescott: $6,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
- Jared Goff: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
- Josh Allen: $6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Drew Brees: New Orleans Saints (-13) at Carolina Panthers, 47.5 Over/Under
Since returning in Week 8 from a hand injury, Brees has been the No. 4 fantasy quarterback with 23.1 FanDuel points per game, and he’s provided excellent value with his +5.67 Plus/Minus.
Over that time, he’s been elite, completing 75.7% of his attempts for 289.8 yards and 2.75 touchdowns to just 0.25 interceptions per game.
In six of his eight games since returning, he’s been a fantasy QB1 with 20-plus FanDuel points (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Right now, Brees is as good as he’s been at any point over the past few years.
It’s not ideal for him to be playing away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the Coors Field of fantasy football. Over the past half decade, Brees has been one of the league’s best home quarterbacks (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Home (48 games): 22.4 FanDuel points, +3.64 Plus/Minus, 68.8% Consistency Rating
- Away (42 games): 17.5 FanDuel points, -1.46 Plus/Minus, 40.5% Consistency Rating
Brees is basically a flow chart quarterback. At home, play. Away, fade.
This week, however, might be the exception: Brees has a winnable matchup. At a glance, it’s not good: The Panthers defense is No. 9 against the pass but No. 32 against the run in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Brees seems to be going against the flow of this funnel defense.
But since the Week 7 bye, the Panthers have been imminently beatable (per RotoViz Team Splits App).
- Weeks 1-6 (six games): +5.5 point differential, 27.7 points scored, 22.2 points allowed
- Weeks 8-16 (nine games): -14.6 point differential, 18.2 points scored, 32.8 points allowed
The Panthers have been destroyed on defense over the past two months, and if the Saints put up a lot of points, it’s likely Brees will get his fantasy production.
And there’s no reason to think the Saints won’t score: They have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total, and they put up 34 against the Panthers in Week 12, when Brees had 23.4 FanDuel points on a 311-yard, three-touchdown passing performance.
Record-setting All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas will likely see shadow coverage from No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry. Although I have respect for Bradberry, who has good size and is a physical defender, Thomas has a clear edge in the matchup: In Week 12, he had 101 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets.
And last week, the Panthers benched No. 2 cornerback Donte Jackson, reportedly because interim head coach Perry Fewell didn’t like it that Jackson criticized him.
The Panthers are clearly not at their best.
From a betting perspective, I like the Saints this weekend. They are in the running for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the Panthers have lost seven straight games. Last week, in third-string rookie quarterback Will Grier’s first NFL start, the Panthers suffered a pathetic 38-6 defeat to the mediocre Colts.
Opponents are 2-0-1 against the spread vs. the Fewell-led Panthers.
How have top-tier teams with something to play for historically done at the end of the season against bottom-feeder divisional rivals with limited motivation?
If we look at Week 17 divisional matchups between teams that are at least .650 and teams that are no greater than .350 — and if we exclude underdogs with strong records, since they are likely to be resting players — we get the answer: 21-14 ATS, good for an 18% return on investment (per our Bet Labs database).
For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Brees with Thomas or tight end Jared Cook. Thomas always has the potential to go off, and the Panthers are No. 25 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends. Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and Brees over the past year has respectively had a 0.53 and 0.57 correlation in production with Thomas and Cook. If Brees has a big game, one of them is likely to go off as well.
Brees leads all quarterbacks in our Models with median, ceiling and floor projections, and he’s the top option in the Freedman Model for FanDuel.
Deshaun Watson: Houston Texans (+4) vs. Tennessee Titans, 45 O/U
Field-stretching No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller (groin) is expected not to play this weekend. Without Fuller, Watson’s splits are stark over 38 career starts.
- With Fuller for majority of snaps (19 games): 24.9 FanDuel points, 274.5 yards passing | 2.47 touchdowns passing
- Without Fuller for majority of snaps (19 games): 20.5 FanDuel points, 243.9 yards passing, 1.26 touchdowns passing
But even without Fuller, Watson is way too cheap. He’s priced as the No. 5 quarterback on FanDuel at $8,000, but for the season he’s the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 22.2 FanDuel points per game.
On top of that, he’s tied in salary with Dak Prescott, who is likely to be one of the slate’s most popular quarterbacks. As a lower-owned pivot to Prescott, Watson is enticing.
In the 2019 playoff picture, the Texans have no shot at getting a first-round bye, so it’s possible they could rest players in Week 17 — including Watson — but we’re not expecting that to happen.
Despite likely being the AFC’s No. 4 seed, Texans’ HC Bill O’Brien told reporters on a conference call today that he had no plans to rest players in Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Titans and “we are playing to win”.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 23, 2019
I wouldn’t play Watson in cash games in case O’Brien changes his mind, but as of now, it looks like the Texans will play their starters per usual against the Titans.
I expect this to be a relatively high-scoring game. The Texans have an explosive offense, and since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter for the Titans in Week 7, they have put up points.
- Tannehill’s starts (nine games): 29.9 points scored, 25 points allowed
- Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, 15.3 points allowed
In Tannehill’s nine starts, the over is 8-1 (75.4% ROI).
Of course, the one under came in the Week 15 Titans-Texans game, which featured three potential-killing red-zone turnovers and a blocked field goal. Even so, that game hit 45 points, and Watson scored 18.9 FanDuel points despite throwing two end-zone interceptions within the 20-yard line.
There are two big factors Watson has in his favor this weekend.
First, he’s on the positive side of his splits as a home underdog.
- Home (19 games): 24.1 FanDuel points, +7.14 Plus/Minus, 78.9% Consistency Rating
- Away (18 games): 21.4 FanDuel points, +4.41 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating
- Underdog (17 games): 23.8 FanDuel points, +6.84 Plus/Minus, 76.5% Consistency Rating
- Favorite (21 games): 21.9 FanDuel points, +4.18 Plus/Minus, 71.4% Consistency Rating
The sample is small, but in his three games as a home dog, Watson has averaged 32.9 FanDuel points and a +16.69 Plus/Minus on 259.3 yards and four touchdowns passing and 18 yards and 0.33 touchdowns rushing per game.
And there’s also the matchup: The Titans have a respectable defense, but it’s a total funnel, ranking No. 5 against the run but No. 22 against the pass in DVOA.
And they are likely worse in pass defense than that ranking indicates. No. 1 cornerback Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9, and since then the Titans have been No. 30 in opponent pass success rate (per Sharp Football Stats).
On top of that, No. 2 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (foot) exited Week 13 early with an injury and has missed the past three games. He didn’t practice on Thursday and Friday last week and doesn’t seem close to returning.
If Jackson is out, two-time All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is likely to match up most with backup cornerback LeShaun Sims, who has allowed a 71.4% catch rate this year.
And when not facing Sims, Nuk will get aged perimeter corner Tramaine Brock, who was claimed off waivers just three weeks ago, and slot corner Logan Ryan, who has allowed an NFL-high 79 receptions and 932 yards (per Pro Football Focus).
On any given snap, Nuk should dominate whomever he faces, and wide receivers Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee and DeAndre Carter should be able to contribute.
The Titans are Nos. 22 & 23 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends and running backs. The Titans safeties and linebackers are likely to struggle against tight ends Darren Fells and Jordan Akins and pass-catching back Duke Johnson.
Watson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales Model for FanDuel.
Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott: Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Washington Redskins, 44.5 O/U
Dak will probably be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate, especially on DraftKings. He’s the No. 6 fantasy quarterback on the year with 22.5 DraftKings points per game, but he’s priced as the No. 9 player at the position at $6,300.
In a week in which many quarterbacks will have uncertain usage because they’ve either been eliminated from the playoff race or are resting up in advance of the postseason, we at least know that the Cowboys will use Dak as usual: If they win and the Eagles lose, the Cowboys will win the NFC East.
And the matchup is fantastic. Just last week, the Redskins allowed a position-high 38.3 DraftKings points to rookie Daniel Jones, who had a 352-yard, five-touchdown passing performance in his first game back from injury.
The Redskins are especially exploitable right now at cornerback.
They have benched No. 1 corner Josh Norman, who hasn’t played as a starter — or hardly at all — since Week 12. Perimeter corners Quinton Dunbar (hamstring) and Fabian Moreau (hamstring) both missed Week 16 with soft-tissue injuries. Neither one practiced last week on Thursday and Friday, so they could both sit out Week 17. And slot corner Jimmy Moreland (foot, IR) is out.
So last week the Redskins started journeymen third- and fourth-stringers Aaron Colvin, Kayvon Webster and Coty Sensabaugh at the position. It was the first start for each of them with the Redskins organization.
These guys are subpar on their own, and they have just one week’s worth of experience playing together. It’s not a surprise they were exposed by the inconsistent Jones.
And the Redskins are highly motivated to lose: At 3-12, they are currently slated to get the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, but if they win, they could drop down in the order, and there’s a pretty big tier break between picks Nos. 2-3.
But Prescott (shoulder) is dealing with an injury, and he looked limited last week in an embarrassing 17-9 loss to the mediocre Eagles. In fact, over the past month, he’s been noticeably trending downward.
And from a betting perspective, I really don’t like the Cowboys this week: Under HC Jason Garrett (since 2010), the Cowboys have a league-worst 20-36-1 ATS record as home favorites. I really dislike the idea of investing in a quarterback for daily fantasy when I’m betting against his team.
But Dak is actually on the positive side of his splits as a home favorite.
- Home (34 games): 21.0 DraftKings points, +3.91 Plus/Minus, 70.6% Consistency Rating
- Away (33 games): 17.9 DraftKings points, +0.66 Plus/Minus, 54.5% Consistency Rating
- Favorite (45 games): 21.6 DraftKings points, +4.25 Plus/Minus, 75.6% Consistency Rating
- Underdog (22 games): 15.2 DraftKings points, -1.65 Plus/Minus, 36.4% Consistency Rating
In his 26 games as a home favorite, Dak has averaged 23.3 DraftKings points with a +6.26 Plus/Minus and 84.6% Consistency Rating. He’s in his personal smash spot.
Because of his shoulder injury and recent form, Dak to me feels risky for cash games, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him heavily rostered in both cash and tournaments: He’s just too cheap and his matchup is just too good to ignore.
Prescott is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings and the CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel. At both sites he leads the position with his Projected Plus/Minus.
As unreal as it might seem, Dak is the No. 1 quarterback in our Week 17 fantasy football rankings.
Jared Goff: Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals, Off the Board
As of writing, this game is off the board because quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) suffered a minor injury in Week 16 and is uncertain to play this week.
But while the game was still posted, I bet the Cardinals at +7.5: The Rams have officially been eliminated from the playoff race, and big organizational changes are expected this offseason. They are in disarray and have no real motivation for Week 17.
I really want no part of what the Rams have to offer.
Even so … Goff is the No. 1 quarterback in my Model for DraftKings. Ugh.
Goff is the No. 22 fantasy quarterback this year with 17.2 DraftKings points per game, and he has had some mighty low lows. After the Week 9 bye, Goff had a three-week stretch in which he averaged 6.4 DraftKings points per game.
But Goff has still been a fantasy QB1 in seven weeks, and over the past month — since the team started emphasizing tight end Tyler Higbee — Goff has averaged 22.2 DraftKings points, 331 yards passing and two touchdowns per game.
All of Goff’s pass-catching options are healthy, and he has a great matchup: The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 25.0 DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks, and they are No. 31 in PFF coverage grade.
I cannot overstate how good this spot is for Goff. Even though the Cardinals have a three-time All-Pro defender in cornerback Patrick Peterson, he has massively regressed this year and allowed a 70.6% catch rate. Opposite Peterson on the perimeter is cornerback Chris Jones, an undrafted second-year special-teamer with just 165 snaps of NFL coverage experience.
In the slot is cornerback Byron Murphy, who has allowed an NFL-high nine touchdowns in his coverage and is the league’s fourth-most attacked cornerback with 94 targets.
All three of these guys are liabilities.
When Goff faced the Cardinals on the road in Week 13, he put up a season-high 28.0 DraftKings points with a 424-yard, two-touchdown passing performance.
And perhaps just as importantly, Goff is on the positive side of the splits he’s exhibited under HC Sean McVay.
- Home (22 games): 19.9 DraftKings points, +2.65 Plus/Minus, 59.1% Consistency Rating
- Away (25 games): 17.8 DraftKings points, +0.37 Plus/Minus, 48.0% Consistency Rating
- Favorite (40 games): 19.9 DraftKings points, +2.41 Plus/Minus, 57.5% Consistency Rating
- Underdog (nine games): 14.8 DraftKings points, -2.13 Plus/Minus, 44.4% Consistency Rating
In his 20 games as a home favorite since 2017, Goff has averaged 20.9 DraftKings points per game with a +3.58 Plus/Minus.
As a tournament option who’s $100 cheaper than Dak, Goff is worth a roster spot, and he has a position-high six Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills (-1.5) vs. New York Jets, 36.5 O/U
Allen is currently No. 1 in the Raybon Model for FanDuel, but there’s no way he’ll be there by the end of the week after we update our projections.
The Bills are locked in as the No. 5 seed in the AFC and have nothing to play for, and that’s reflected in the line movement we’ve seen since this game was posted: The Bills opened at -4.5, but that line has quickly been bet down to -1.5.
Allen might not even play this week, and if he does, he seems unlikely to play more than a few series.
Put simply: Allen is too risky to roster this week.
Upside Quarterbacks for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,200 DK, $8,600 FD): Mahomes has an NFL-best 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) since last year, and in his two career games with No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill against the Chargers, Mahomes has averaged 23.2 DraftKings points per game. The Chiefs can get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Patriots loss, so Mahomes should see his usual playing time.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($6,900 DK, $8,300 FD): The Packers have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the Lions are No. 29 in pass defense DVOA. Opponents are 5-1-1 ATS (54.2% ROI) against the Lions since they lost quarterback Matthew Stafford (back, IR), and Rodgers has historically crushed in divisional games, going 41-24 ATS (23.2% ROI).
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans ($6,800 DK, $7,900 FD): Since becoming the starter in Week 7, Tannehill has been the No. 4 fantasy quarterback with 23.0 FanDuel points per game, and he leads the league with a 10.1 AY/A. Against the Texans in Week 15, Tanny put up 25.2 FanDuel points.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,600 DK, $8,100 FD): After a rough first couple of starts, Winston has been the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 25.7 DraftKings points per game since Week 3, and he leads the slate with 10.5 intended air yards per attempt (per Next Gen Stats). The Falcons are No. 27 in PFF coverage grade and are without No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (arm, IR).
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,500 DK, $7,800 FD): The Falcons lead the league with a 67.1% pass play rate, and Ryan is No. 2 with seven 300-yard, multi-touchdown games this year. The Bucs have a funnel defense ranked No. 1 against the run but No. 15 against the pass in DVOA.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants ($6,400 DK, $7,500 FD): Despite having only 11 starts, Jones is No. 2 all time among rookie quarterbacks with four games of 30-plus DraftKings points.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD): Wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) and tight end Zach Ertz (ribs) are uncertain to play, but the Eagles will make the playoffs with a win, and the Giants have allowed the third-most FanDuel points to quarterbacks with 21.6 per game.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots ($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD): The 42-year-old veteran has struggled this year, but in Week 2 he passed for 342 yards and three touchdowns against the Dolphins, who are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade and pass defense DVOA. The Pats will get a first-round bye with a win.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins ($5,800 DK, $7,400 FD): The Patriots are No. 1 in PFF coverage grade and pass defense DVOA, so the matchup is tough, but they will likely be without starting cornerbacks Jason McCourty (groin) and Jonathan Jones (groin). FitzMagic has averaged 21.8 DraftKings points per game since returning to the starting lineup in Week 7.
Case Keenum, Washington Redskins ($4,500 DK, $6,800 FD): Rookie Dwayne Haskins (ankle) is out, so Keenum will get the start. Against the Cowboys in Week 2, Keenum had a palatable 16.7 DraftKings points per game, and he’s the stone minimum on DraftKings.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Drew Brees
Photo credit: USA-TODAY Sports
