The Defense and Kicker Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (84 teams) have averaged 10.01 points with a +1.84 Plus/Minus and 8.4 percent average ownership so far this season, while defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (109 teams) have averaged 9.21 points with a +1.82 Plus/Minus and 8.2 percent average ownership. With only one week left in the regular season, paying up for defenses has proven to be slightly more valuable on DraftKings.
The Big Two Three Defenses
- Jacksonville ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
- Pittsburgh ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Minnesota ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Big Cats on the Prowl
As stated seemingly every week this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are on a historic run. They are currently on pace to be the highest-scoring fantasy defense of the past four seasons, however Baltimore has now surpassed them in terms of being the most valuable (in terms of Plus/Minus). Jacksonville has averaged 12.73 points per game (PPG) with a +4.53 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +5.25 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. On the regular season ending menu for the Jaguars is a Titans team fighting for its playoff life. If Tennessee wins, they are in, but if they lose, they will need help from other teams. The Jaguars — locked in as the No. 3 seed — are implied to score 19.5 points as 3-point underdogs in Tennessee. This is unchartered recent territory for the Jaguars, but they have posted ludicrous numbers in their seven games away from #Sacksonville this season, averaging 18.29 PPG with a +10.18 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +10.77 Plus/Minus on FanDuel . The Jaguars have scored double-digit fantasy points in each of their road games this season – except for the debacle in San Francisco last week – and have scored 20 or more points in four of the seven.
The Jaguars lead the NFL with 52 sacks, are tied atop the league with Pittsburgh with their 9.6 percent sack rate, and now rank third with their 8.9 percent adjusted sack rate (per Football Outsiders). Tennessee’s offensive line has been above average, allowing the 13th-lowest adjusted sack rate (6.3 percent) in the league this season. We currently have the Jaguars projected for the fourth-most sacks (3.1) on the main slate. Jacksonville leads the NFL with their 4.3 percent interception rate and ranks second with 21 interceptions.
The Steel Curtain
The Pittsburgh Steelers welcome in the Cleveland Browns as 7-point favorites and are the No. 1 rated defense for DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. The Browns have allowed opposing D/STs to score more points per game (12.93) than any other team in the NFL this season. During the month of December, Cleveland has allowed opposing defenses to average 12.75 PPG with a +4.52 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +5.40 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. It’s safe to say the Steelers’ matchup is a good one.
The Steelers are the only team other than Jacksonville to get to 50 sacks and are tied for first in the NFL with their 9.6 percent sack percentage. Cameron Heyward — fifth in the NFL with 12 sacks — must be licking his chops to face the Browns’ offensive line, who has given up 44 sacks and the 13th-highest adjusted sack percentage (7.3 percent) in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, the Steelers have the highest projected sack total (3.8) in our NFL Models this week.
Purple People Eaters
The Minnesota Vikings take on Chicago as large 13-point home favorites with the Bears implied to score a slate-low 13.3 points. Historically, defenses favored by double-digit points at home have averaged 10.47 PPG with a +2.08 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 10.34 PPG with a +2.61 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Vikings D/ST have averaged 9.00 PPG at home this season with a +1.93 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +2.16 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Chicago has allowed the eighth-highest adjusted sack percentage (7.9 percent) and Minnesota has registered 36 sacks this season: The Vikings currently have our fourth-highest projected sack total (3.1). Everson Griffen ranks fourth in the NFL with 13.0 sacks and Harrison Smith ranks fifth with five interceptions.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
New England Patriots ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): After a horrific start, the Patriots have now averaged 10.75 PPG with a +4.29 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +4.00 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a perfect Consistency Rating in their last four home games this season. New England — a slate-high 16.5-point favorite — has posted 21 sacks in their last five games and the Jets have allowed the fifth-highest adjusted sack percentage (8.9 percent) this season.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
With Greg Zuerlein on injured reserve, Stephen Gostkowski ($5,300) retains his spot atop the kicking salary spectrum this week. Gostkowski’s 12.8 median point projection ranks second and his +4.25 Projected Plus/Minus ranks third on this slate. Kickers at home favored by 14 or more points have averaged 9.95 FPPG and a +1.69 Plus/Minus with a 50.0 percent Consistency Rating since 2014. Gostkowski has crushed in these spots, averaging 11.83 FPPG with a +3.47 Plus/Minus and 83.3 percent Consistency. If you’re not using our Lineup Builder to make a bunch of Gostkowski and Patriots D/ST stacks, you’re doing it wrong.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Justin Tucker ($5,000): Tucker has our highest projected Plus/Minus (+4.92) and median points projection (13.2) on the slate and is the No. 1 rated kicker in CSURAM88’s Player Model. The Ravens are 10-point favorites at home at Cincinnati and Tucker has averaged 10.14 PPG with a +1.87 Plus/Minus as a favorite in Division games since 2014.
Robbie Gould ($4,800): The 49ers kicker has our highest Projected Plus/Minus (+4.40) among kickers with a salary below $5,000 and San Francisco has a top-10 implied points total (23.3) this week. Gould has made 37 of 39 field goal attempts this season and is a perfect 4-4 from 50 yards or more.
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Good luck, and be sure to research the Week 17 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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