Justin Bailey is a single-lineup player who uses the FantasyLabs Tools to research slates and build daily fantasy rosters. This series — The Single-Entry Savant — highlights the tools he uses and methodology he applies to construct his lineups.
Single Lineup Synopsis
I’m a single-lineup player who generally plays 80 percent of my action in head-to-head games and the other 20 percent in single-entry tournaments. There are an abundance of decisions to make on a weekly or daily basis in DFS, but one thing that remains constant in my process each week is my game allocation:
- Try for at least 30 head-to-heads at a given buy-in level. Otherwise, enter some single-entry double-ups to supplement.
- Thirty $5 head-to-heads are safer than a $100 and $50 head-to-head.
- Stick to single-entry GPPs for your tournament allotment.
Remember: Keep it simple.
Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas
When it comes to roster construction, I’d like to have one or both of Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas. It’s a lot easier on FanDuel to roster both guys, but it’s possible to get it done at DraftKings depending on what else you’re looking at for roster construction.
Allen is currently the No. 1 receiver in the Adam Levitan Player Model on DraftKings and the only player with a Floor Projection of nine points among receivers. Per our Trends tool, there have been 14 receivers this year with a Floor Projection of at least nine points on DraftKings and they’ve averaged 19.31 DraftKings points with a +2.85 Plus/Minus and 64.3 percent Consistency Rating.
Allen was already dominating target share for the Chargers, with 29 percent of their target share and 42 percent of their air yards over the last six weeks. Now with Hunter Henry (lacerated kidney) on IR, that frees up another 14 percent of the Chargers’ target share. Henry also represented 18 percent of their red zone target share over the last six weeks, while Allen was leading the team with 12 red zone targets.
Looking at Vegas data and recent usage in our Trends tool, Thomas is the only receiver on the main slate who is averaging at least nine targets per game over the last month and is featured in a game with an implied team total of 25 or more points. These trends have historically led to positive fantasy output as those receivers have averaged 18.26 DraftKings points with a +2.62 Plus/Minus and a 55.9 percent Consistency Rating.
Thomas has been as steady as it comes for receivers, averaging 10.5 targets per game over the last six weeks and five or more receptions in each of those games. The Saints faced the Falcons in Week 14 and Thomas strung together a 10-117-1 line on 14 targets.
All the Running Backs Are In Play
There are an absurd amount of running backs I want to play. There isn’t any certain one that I am keying on because ultimately, it will come down to where I land at the onesie positions (quarterback, tight end). Especially on FanDuel, where all the top-tier running backs aren’t separated by much salary. From Todd Gurley down to Mark Ingram, Kareem Hunt, and Ezekiel Elliott is just a $900 separation. Those $8,300 running backs to Melvin Gordon and Alvin Kamara are separated by just $200. Then you also have the option of paying down to Dion Lewis at $6,700, who sits atop the Adam Levitan Model, or you can plug in Devonta Freeman, who is priced down on both sites. Tevin Coleman has cleared the concussion protocol now so that may help sway your decision. Since Week 13 after returning from a concussion, Freeman still had steady snap rates of 74 percent, 69 percent, and 72 percent — Coleman was active for Week 13 and Week 14.
On FanDuel, there are eight running backs on the main slate who have at least 10 Pro Trends: Ingram, Kamara, Gurley, Hunt, Christian McCaffrey, Lewis, Elliott, and James White. I’ll toss White off the list because he’s more of a GPP flier since FanDuel is more touchdown dependent. That said, since 2014, running backs who have at least 10 Pro Trends have averaged 15.91 FanDuel points per game with a +2.85 Plus/Minus and a 59.8 Consistency Rating.
All of those running backs listed with 10 Pro Trends plus Gordon (nine Pro Trends) are all Vegas favorites. However, Gurley, Gordon, and Hunt are the only running backs who are seeing at least 20 touches per game this season. Hunt hit a wall but has been throttling defenses since Andy Reid turned over play-calling duties. He’s averaging 17.26 FanDuel points as a home favorite this year. Lewis is seeing 13.8 touches per game over the last six weeks and was handling the majority of goal-line work until Rex Burkhead (knee, likely out) returned, and he only costs $6,700. Lewis will need to score a touchdown since he’s not used much in the passing game. Otherwise, you’re likely to end up with 6-8 FanDuel points. That said, he should be in a spot to succeed against a Bills defense that ranks 28th in rush Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and the Patriots are 12.5-point home favorites.
I’d consider all of these running backs viable and some combination of these two will be in my lineup. I just haven’t quite figured out that puzzle yet.
Closing Thoughts
This is an odd week. I am nowhere near settled in roster construction yet and will continue to soak in all the upcoming news up until lock. It’ll be a lot easier once you figure out where to go at quarterback and whether or not you want to pay up at tight end for someone like Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen or pay down for Cameron Brate or Antonio Gates.
I encourage all of you to tinker around with our Trends tool to create your own. I’ve created numerous trends that have put me on players I wouldn’t think of targeting in a given week. Not only will you find certain players you may not have thought of, but you’ll get an idea of how players perform under certain circumstances and whether or not they fit into your style of play. I use the Trends tool, Vegas Dashboard, Correlations Page, and Matchup Page every week when constructing rosters. Also, as we get closer to Sunday, don’t forget to check out our new Player Props page.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
