This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 16 shmoney time.
Quarterback (Cash)
- Deshaun Watson, Texans ($7,000 DK, $8,600 FD) at TB
Our NFL Player Models have Deshaun Watson projected to score the most points on the slate, and it’s not particularly close. Watson’s projected floor nearly doubles up that of every other player on the slate, as well. In a cash game format, Watson has to be the choice over Jameis Winston, who is missing a trio of receivers in Mike Evans (hamstring), Chris Godwin (hamstring), and Scotty Miller (hamstring) that combined to account for 58% of his passing yardage and 60% of his TDs. (Also: What’s the deal with all those hamstring injuries? Are Bucs wide receivers skipping their pre-game stretching routine?)
As I discussed in our Texans-Bucs betting guide, the presence of Will Fuller (hamstring) gives Watson the ideal setup to attack Tampa Bay’s pass defense, which has seen a league-high 41.5 pass attempts per game as opponents look to avoid a run defense that ranks No. 1 in schedule-adjusted efficiency, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Watson’s median rushing yardage output this season is 32 yards, which helps keep his floor high should the windy conditions expected at Raymond James Stadium become a factor.
Running Back (Cash)
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