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Week 16 RB Breakdown: Melvin Gordon’s Workload Makes Him a Smart Play Against The Jets

The Running Back Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.

Happy holidays to anyone and everyone brave enough to take on this challenging Week 16 slate. There has been plenty of workload and injury-related news this week, so staying on top of the latest backfield trends is more vital than ever. Let’s take a look at some of the week’s top options out of the backfield. Be sure to consult our Vegas line and Market Share breakdowns to stay on top of Vegas and workload-related trends heading into Sunday.

Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 12-game DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.

The Big One and Little Five

Le’Veon Bell will showcase his talents in Houston on Christmas Day, so there are plenty of three-down workhorses to choose from beneath the potential leader in the clubhouse for this season’s MVP award:

  • Todd Gurley ($9,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
  • Kareem Hunt ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
  • Alvin Kamara ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) and Mark Ingram ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
  • Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
  • LeSean McCoy ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)

Our group certainly isn’t lacking in star power and their fantasy prospects for this week aren’t half bad either. Let’s take a look.

The best running back in Los Angeles the NFL

It’s hard to find a running back outside of Pittsburgh with a more fantasy-friendly workload than Gurley. He ranks first and sixth, respectively, in rushes inside the five-yard line and targets through 15 weeks among all running backs. Head coach Sean McVay deserves plenty of credit, as his guidance has helped the Rams produce the largest difference in yards per drive from 2016 to 2017, while the Redskins have suffered the largest decline (per NumberFire’s J.J. Zachariason). Gurley has been the engine of the league’s No. 1 scoring offense, ranking among the top-eight backs in both yards per touch and Evaded Tackles (PlayerProfiler).

With such a unique blend of high-value touches and game-breaking ability, it’s no surprise that the season’s current RB1 has surpassed 15 DraftKings points in all but two games. Next up is the Titans’ 22nd-ranked defense in DVOA, one that hopes to welcome back defensive end Derrick Morgan (knee, questionable) this week. Morgan’s presence hasn’t stopped a floodgate over opposing left tackles, as the Titans defense ranks 29th in adjusted-line yards over left tackle this season. This issue could be amplified against the Rams’ league-best unit on carries to the left behind Andrew Whitworth – PFF’s No. 4 overall run-blocking tackle.

Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage.

It’s Hunt(ing) season again

Head coach Andy Reid relinquished play-calling duties after his offense scored a combined 19 points against the Giants and Bills in Weeks 11 and 12. Since then, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has made Hunt the focal point of the team’s offense:

Predictably, a massive 23.6-touch workload has boosted Hunt’s fantasy production, as only Gurley and Bell have scored more DraftKings PPG over the past three weeks. Charcandrick West has just three total targets since the change, and Alex Smith has thrown fewer than 35 passes in every game despite meeting or surpassing that threshold on six separate occasions in Weeks 1-12. Hunt’s salary has skyrocketed up to pre-Nagy levels, but his newfound workload is combined with a solid matchup against the Dolphins’ 24th-ranked defense in DVOA that has allowed an additional 1.5 yards per carry and 7.7 PPG on the road this season.

Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Hunt’s elevated lifting leads to enhanced ownership at various contest sizes.

Alvin and the ChipMarks

Ingram and Kamara became the first backs from the same team to be named to the Pro Bowl since Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott in 2000. The former has made his mark with a bruising running style, while the latter has established himself as one of the most efficient backs in the league. Boom and Zoom are plenty capable of thriving in any offense, but their status as two of just six running backs with double-digit targets inside the 20-yard line adds an extra story to their fantasy floor. Kamara has proved to be especially slippery on option routes, which have often left linebackers and safeties of all shapes and sizes grasping for air:

They’re two of just seven backs to average over 19 DraftKings points per game (PPG) this season, and both have top-three Plus/Minuses and Consistency Ratings among this group (per our Trends Tool). They’ve combined to score 65.5 percent of the Saints’ offensive touchdowns since the Adrian Peterson trade (per Justin Bailey), and now set their sights on the Falcons’ 30th-ranked defense in rush DVOA that has allowed five separate running backs to surpass 10 DraftKings points based purely on receiving production this season.

It’s Shady in New England

The Patriots, perpetual extinguishers of the opposing offense’s No. 1 weapon, have failed to do so against McCoy throughout his career:

Shady’s tendency to share his quarterback’s extreme home/away splits is cause for concern, but he’ll at least work against a Patriots defense already without 6’6″ 350-pound run-stuffer Alan Branch (knee, doubtful) and potentially missing linebacker Kyle Van Noy (calf, questionable). The absence of Branch is especially alarming, as the Patriots have allowed 21.5 PPG and 127 rushing yards in 10 games without Branch, compared to 18 PPG and 98.2 rushing yards in 52 games with him since 2014. As discussed on this week’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Shady is a potential lower-owned pivot away from chalkier and more expensive backs. He has a great matchup against the Patriots’ 31st-ranked defensive line in adjusted line yards allowed per rush.

Zeke and destroy

Elliott’s impact on the Cowboys offense was evident during their 3-3 stretch with him sidelined. The Cowboys averaged 28.3 PPG and 148.1 rushing yards per game in eight games with their RB1 compared to 18.3 PPG and 121.3 yards in six games without him. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan confirmed Elliott will receive “significant touches“, and that workload will likely be heavy considering only Bell received more touches among all running backs in Weeks 1-9.

Elliott’s salary hasn’t dipped under $8,500 on either DraftKings or FanDuel since Week 4, but he’s just the RB5 and RB7 on both sites respectively. His matchup against the Seahawks’ ninth-ranked defense in rush DVOA isn’t ideal, although they’ve allowed an additional 5.1 PPG and 24 rushing yards per game in 14 games without strong safety Kam Chancellor (neck, IR) since 2015.

Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.09. Dak Prescott and Elliott’s fantasy production has a strong +0.32 correlation since the beginning of last season, which makes sense given the running back’s large pass-game role. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Prescott with Elliott on Sunday.

Up the Gut

Leonard Fournette ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone confirmed Wednesday that Fournette will suit up Sunday against the 49ers. He’ll take on a 49ers run defense that has struggled for the majority of the last two seasons, but has allowed 90 or less rushing yards in every game since their Week 11 bye. Fournette will need to overcome his SEC college rival Reuben Foster, who helped limit the former LSU star to just 145 rushing yards and one touchdown on 57 attempts.in three games against Alabama. Foster has replicated his success at the next level, as PFF’s No. 5 overall linebacker has made impact plays all over the field:

The Jaguars haven’t indicated Fournette will play limited snaps, but it’d be surprising to see an egregious amount of touches given the team’s playoff berth and the running back’s lingering injuries. Still, Fournette is capable of creating big plays off limited opportunities, as 30.7 percent of his runs have gone for 15-plus yards — the eighth-highest mark among full-time running backs this season. He’ll need to get the job done against a 49ers defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per rush this season.

Kenyan Drake ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Drake’s status as one of the slate’s workhorse three-down backs is in serious jeopardy with Damien Williams‘ (shoulder, questionable) return to practice Wednesday. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track daily practice participation and estimated game statuses for all fantasy-relevant players. Drake has played 93.2 percent of the Dolphins snaps over the last two weeks while racking up an average of 21.3 carries and 4.6 receptions per game, but offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen admitted Thursday that the Dolphins have “probably run Drake more than they would prefer with Williams out.” Drake’s agility and big-play ability isn’t in question considering he ranks among the top-five backs in PFF’s Elusive Rating and rushes of 15-plus yards over the past two weeks, but he may need to overcome a committee backfield along with a Chiefs defense that hasn’t allowed over 20 points at Arrowhead since October, 2016.

Jordan Howard ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Despite his status as one of the most game-flow dependent backs in the league due to the presence of pass-catching backs Tarik Cohen and Benny Cunningham, Howard has failed to clear 12 DraftKings points in each of his five career games as a favorite. His matchup against the Browns’ league-best defense in rush DVOA isn’t great on paper, although it’s fair to question the late-season effectiveness of a 0-14 Hue Jackson-led (#HueLakeErieSwim) squad. The Browns have allowed at least 90 rushing yards in five of six games since their Week 9 bye after only allowing three of their first eight opponents to surpass that threshold. They’ve been the league’s second-largest fraud when it comes to DraftKings PPG allowed to opposing running backs vs. Rush DVOA rank.

Dion Lewis ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), Mike Gillislee ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), and James White ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): The expected absence of Rex Burkhead (knee, doubtful) is expected to bring Gillislee onto the gameday roster for the first time since the Patriots’ Week 9 bye. Since he’s been gone, Lewis can breathe for the first time the backfield established a three-back committee, with Lewis working early downs, Burkhead getting a little bit of everything (especially in the red zone), and White continuing to work as the two-minute/third-down back. This division of labor can’t be trusted moving forward considering the differences in touches with Burkhead sidelined this season:

Lewis has emerged as the team’s best back since Burkhead’s early-season absences and could feasibly see a few additional targets and early-down carries. Still, Lewis has only been fed more than 15 carries in two of his 52 career games and doesn’t figure to suddenly inherent a 20-touch role. Gillislee offers upside as a short-yardage vulture in a #RevengeGame, but White could actually have the largest role in replacing Burkhead’s 3.6 targets per game. White averaged an additional 3.5 targets per game from Weeks 2-6 with Burkhead sidelined.

C.J. Anderson ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) and Devontae Booker ($3,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): The Broncos backfield appeared to shift towards Booker in Weeks 11-12, but Anderson has since racked up at least 19 touches in three consecutive games including 30 carries last Thursday night – the most carries he’s had in a game since 2014. Paxton Lynch (ankle, questionable) has failed to lead the offense to more than 20 points in each of his three career starts, but another high-volume performance for Anderson would behoove the Broncos considering the Redskins field the league’s worst defensive line in adjusted-line yards.

Joe Mixon ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) and Giovani Bernard ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Mixon has practiced in full this week and is expected to work as the Bengals featured back for the first time since Week 13.This should delegate Bernard to a pass-catching role unworthy of his elevated price tag across the industry. Mixon’s matchup doesn’t have much reason for optimism either considering he could be without both starting left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi (shoulder, questionable) and right tackle Andre Smith (knee, IR). The Lions have hardly been a run defense to avoid this season, but it’s fair to question the upside of any back working behind a banged-up version of the league’s fourth-worst offensive line in adjusted line yards, let alone one that has scored just 14 points over their last eight quarters.

Devonta Freeman ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Tevin Coleman ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Coleman has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to suit up against the Saints. His presence is bad news for Freeman, who converted a season-high 27 touches into 194 total yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers on Monday night. Freeman has routinely balled out with Coleman sidelined, averaging 24.7 DraftKings points per game without Coleman compared to 16.9 points per game with since 2015. Both backs have a good matchup against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked defense in rush DVOA at the at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football.

DeMarco Murray ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) and Derrick Henry ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Frantz Fanon once said, “Understanding something new requires us to be inclined, to be prepared, and demands a new state of mind.” Fanon clearly never attempted to evaluate the Titans backfield, because it’s Week 16 and no amount of preparation and inclination can explain why Murray continues to work ahead of Henry:

Henry would likely be the overwhelming favorite to be picked above Murray in a backyard football game, but Henry will remain a volatile week-to-week fantasy option due to his minimal receiving role and lack of overall snaps. Murray is PFF’s No. 1 pass blocker among all running backs, with a goal line and receiving workload large enough to make him the more viable fantasy option in spite of real life ability. The Rams’ 19th-ranked defense in rush DVOA isn’t impenetrable, but limited touches in an offense that hasn’t surpassed 24 points since Week 6 leads to limited floors and ceiling for both backs.

Mike Davis ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) and J.D. McKissic ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): The clock struck midnight last week on Davis’ Cinderella like rise to the top of the Seahawks’ backfield. He gained just 39 total yards on eight touches, while passing-down back McKissic played 64 percent of snaps and converted his nine touches into 58 total yards. Davis has flashed in the open field, but he carries a low floor as a game-flow dependent back running behind the league’s third-worst offensive line in adjusted line yards. McKissic is set up better this week as a road dog against the Cowboys’ 26th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. pass-catching backs.

Samaje Perine ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) and Kapri Bibbs ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Perine suffered a groin injury in practice Thursday and should be considered questionable for Sunday. He was expected to work as the Redskins’ three-down back with Byron Marshall (hamstring, IR) sidelined, but Bibbs wound up working as the offense’s clear change-of-pace back. Perine out-touched and out-snapped Bibbs 16-6 and 33-16, but the latter converted his touches into 53 total yards and a touchdown compared to just 66 scoreless yards from Perine. Head coach Jay Gruden said Monday that Bibbs will get more work over the last two games. Both backs could struggle to find running room against the Broncos’ second-ranked defense in rush DVOA, but Bibbs has a chance to find some success through the air against the Broncos’ 22nd-ranked defense in DVOA against pass-catching backs.

The Model Running Backs

There are several running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two backs standing out among multiple models:

  • Melvin Gordon ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
  • Christian McCaffrey ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel):

Gordon may never be one of the league’s “best” backs, but he’ll continue to find his way into winning DFS lineups as long as he’s featured like one. Workload has been the least of Gordon’s concerns since the team’s Week 9 bye, as only Bell has more total touches over the past six weeks. Also working in Gordon’s favor this week are favorable injuries on both the Chargers offense and Jets defense:

  • Chargers: Pass-catching backup Austin Ekeler (hand, questionable) is a game-time decision and will play with a cast if active. A potential increase in targets bodes well for Gordon against the league’s 24th-ranked defense in DVOA against pass-catching backs.
  • Jets: The Jets have funneled opposing offensive production to the air for the better part of Todd Bowles‘ three seasons as head coach. That was mostly a result of having three studs in Sheldon Richardson (now in Seattle), Leonard Williams (concussion, questionable), and Muhammad Wilkerson (coach’s decision, questionable) working in the trenches.

Gordon joins Gurley and Hunt as the only running backs in our Pro Models with both a projected ceiling of 30-plus points and a projected floor over 10 points. Of course, Gordon’s price tag is well below those aforementioned backs, and his top-five Projected Plus/Minus across the industry demonstrates his value. Gordon is the only running back priced over $5,000 on DraftKings with a 35 percent Bargain Rating.

The Panthers didn’t appear to have an immediate plan for weaponizing McCaffrey at the start of the season, but he’s emerged as an efficient slasher capable of causing problems for defenses all over the field. As a running back, McCaffrey has averaged 5.33 yards per carry since the Panthers’ Week 11 bye compared to just 2.98 yards per attempt in Weeks 1-10. Lately he’s received additional work out of the slot and out wide, as the Panthers have seemingly gained trust in his ability as a pure receiver:

McCaffrey’s DraftKings salary shot down to its lowest mark since October after Jonathan Stewart‘s three-touchdown explosion, and it has yet to fully rebound despite his 25.6 DraftKings points last week against the Packers. He has an ideal matchup against the Buccaneers’ 29th-ranked defense that could be without front-seven difference makers Gerald McCoy (biceps, questionable) and Lavonte David (hamstring, questionable). McCaffrey may not have the typical workload of a RB1, but his receiving prowess at least gives him fantasy-friendly opportunities for his limited touches, as evidence by his 13 targets inside the 20-yard line – tied for the third-highest mark among all running backs.

Positional Breakdowns & Tools

Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 16 positional breakdowns:

• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

Good luck this week!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.

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The Running Back Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.

Happy holidays to anyone and everyone brave enough to take on this challenging Week 16 slate. There has been plenty of workload and injury-related news this week, so staying on top of the latest backfield trends is more vital than ever. Let’s take a look at some of the week’s top options out of the backfield. Be sure to consult our Vegas line and Market Share breakdowns to stay on top of Vegas and workload-related trends heading into Sunday.

Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 12-game DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.

The Big One and Little Five

Le’Veon Bell will showcase his talents in Houston on Christmas Day, so there are plenty of three-down workhorses to choose from beneath the potential leader in the clubhouse for this season’s MVP award:

  • Todd Gurley ($9,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
  • Kareem Hunt ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
  • Alvin Kamara ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) and Mark Ingram ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
  • Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
  • LeSean McCoy ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)

Our group certainly isn’t lacking in star power and their fantasy prospects for this week aren’t half bad either. Let’s take a look.

The best running back in Los Angeles the NFL

It’s hard to find a running back outside of Pittsburgh with a more fantasy-friendly workload than Gurley. He ranks first and sixth, respectively, in rushes inside the five-yard line and targets through 15 weeks among all running backs. Head coach Sean McVay deserves plenty of credit, as his guidance has helped the Rams produce the largest difference in yards per drive from 2016 to 2017, while the Redskins have suffered the largest decline (per NumberFire’s J.J. Zachariason). Gurley has been the engine of the league’s No. 1 scoring offense, ranking among the top-eight backs in both yards per touch and Evaded Tackles (PlayerProfiler).

With such a unique blend of high-value touches and game-breaking ability, it’s no surprise that the season’s current RB1 has surpassed 15 DraftKings points in all but two games. Next up is the Titans’ 22nd-ranked defense in DVOA, one that hopes to welcome back defensive end Derrick Morgan (knee, questionable) this week. Morgan’s presence hasn’t stopped a floodgate over opposing left tackles, as the Titans defense ranks 29th in adjusted-line yards over left tackle this season. This issue could be amplified against the Rams’ league-best unit on carries to the left behind Andrew Whitworth – PFF’s No. 4 overall run-blocking tackle.

Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage.

It’s Hunt(ing) season again

Head coach Andy Reid relinquished play-calling duties after his offense scored a combined 19 points against the Giants and Bills in Weeks 11 and 12. Since then, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has made Hunt the focal point of the team’s offense:

Predictably, a massive 23.6-touch workload has boosted Hunt’s fantasy production, as only Gurley and Bell have scored more DraftKings PPG over the past three weeks. Charcandrick West has just three total targets since the change, and Alex Smith has thrown fewer than 35 passes in every game despite meeting or surpassing that threshold on six separate occasions in Weeks 1-12. Hunt’s salary has skyrocketed up to pre-Nagy levels, but his newfound workload is combined with a solid matchup against the Dolphins’ 24th-ranked defense in DVOA that has allowed an additional 1.5 yards per carry and 7.7 PPG on the road this season.

Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Hunt’s elevated lifting leads to enhanced ownership at various contest sizes.

Alvin and the ChipMarks

Ingram and Kamara became the first backs from the same team to be named to the Pro Bowl since Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott in 2000. The former has made his mark with a bruising running style, while the latter has established himself as one of the most efficient backs in the league. Boom and Zoom are plenty capable of thriving in any offense, but their status as two of just six running backs with double-digit targets inside the 20-yard line adds an extra story to their fantasy floor. Kamara has proved to be especially slippery on option routes, which have often left linebackers and safeties of all shapes and sizes grasping for air:

They’re two of just seven backs to average over 19 DraftKings points per game (PPG) this season, and both have top-three Plus/Minuses and Consistency Ratings among this group (per our Trends Tool). They’ve combined to score 65.5 percent of the Saints’ offensive touchdowns since the Adrian Peterson trade (per Justin Bailey), and now set their sights on the Falcons’ 30th-ranked defense in rush DVOA that has allowed five separate running backs to surpass 10 DraftKings points based purely on receiving production this season.

It’s Shady in New England

The Patriots, perpetual extinguishers of the opposing offense’s No. 1 weapon, have failed to do so against McCoy throughout his career:

Shady’s tendency to share his quarterback’s extreme home/away splits is cause for concern, but he’ll at least work against a Patriots defense already without 6’6″ 350-pound run-stuffer Alan Branch (knee, doubtful) and potentially missing linebacker Kyle Van Noy (calf, questionable). The absence of Branch is especially alarming, as the Patriots have allowed 21.5 PPG and 127 rushing yards in 10 games without Branch, compared to 18 PPG and 98.2 rushing yards in 52 games with him since 2014. As discussed on this week’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Shady is a potential lower-owned pivot away from chalkier and more expensive backs. He has a great matchup against the Patriots’ 31st-ranked defensive line in adjusted line yards allowed per rush.

Zeke and destroy

Elliott’s impact on the Cowboys offense was evident during their 3-3 stretch with him sidelined. The Cowboys averaged 28.3 PPG and 148.1 rushing yards per game in eight games with their RB1 compared to 18.3 PPG and 121.3 yards in six games without him. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan confirmed Elliott will receive “significant touches“, and that workload will likely be heavy considering only Bell received more touches among all running backs in Weeks 1-9.

Elliott’s salary hasn’t dipped under $8,500 on either DraftKings or FanDuel since Week 4, but he’s just the RB5 and RB7 on both sites respectively. His matchup against the Seahawks’ ninth-ranked defense in rush DVOA isn’t ideal, although they’ve allowed an additional 5.1 PPG and 24 rushing yards per game in 14 games without strong safety Kam Chancellor (neck, IR) since 2015.

Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.09. Dak Prescott and Elliott’s fantasy production has a strong +0.32 correlation since the beginning of last season, which makes sense given the running back’s large pass-game role. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Prescott with Elliott on Sunday.

Up the Gut

Leonard Fournette ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone confirmed Wednesday that Fournette will suit up Sunday against the 49ers. He’ll take on a 49ers run defense that has struggled for the majority of the last two seasons, but has allowed 90 or less rushing yards in every game since their Week 11 bye. Fournette will need to overcome his SEC college rival Reuben Foster, who helped limit the former LSU star to just 145 rushing yards and one touchdown on 57 attempts.in three games against Alabama. Foster has replicated his success at the next level, as PFF’s No. 5 overall linebacker has made impact plays all over the field:

The Jaguars haven’t indicated Fournette will play limited snaps, but it’d be surprising to see an egregious amount of touches given the team’s playoff berth and the running back’s lingering injuries. Still, Fournette is capable of creating big plays off limited opportunities, as 30.7 percent of his runs have gone for 15-plus yards — the eighth-highest mark among full-time running backs this season. He’ll need to get the job done against a 49ers defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per rush this season.

Kenyan Drake ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Drake’s status as one of the slate’s workhorse three-down backs is in serious jeopardy with Damien Williams‘ (shoulder, questionable) return to practice Wednesday. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track daily practice participation and estimated game statuses for all fantasy-relevant players. Drake has played 93.2 percent of the Dolphins snaps over the last two weeks while racking up an average of 21.3 carries and 4.6 receptions per game, but offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen admitted Thursday that the Dolphins have “probably run Drake more than they would prefer with Williams out.” Drake’s agility and big-play ability isn’t in question considering he ranks among the top-five backs in PFF’s Elusive Rating and rushes of 15-plus yards over the past two weeks, but he may need to overcome a committee backfield along with a Chiefs defense that hasn’t allowed over 20 points at Arrowhead since October, 2016.

Jordan Howard ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Despite his status as one of the most game-flow dependent backs in the league due to the presence of pass-catching backs Tarik Cohen and Benny Cunningham, Howard has failed to clear 12 DraftKings points in each of his five career games as a favorite. His matchup against the Browns’ league-best defense in rush DVOA isn’t great on paper, although it’s fair to question the late-season effectiveness of a 0-14 Hue Jackson-led (#HueLakeErieSwim) squad. The Browns have allowed at least 90 rushing yards in five of six games since their Week 9 bye after only allowing three of their first eight opponents to surpass that threshold. They’ve been the league’s second-largest fraud when it comes to DraftKings PPG allowed to opposing running backs vs. Rush DVOA rank.

Dion Lewis ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), Mike Gillislee ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), and James White ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): The expected absence of Rex Burkhead (knee, doubtful) is expected to bring Gillislee onto the gameday roster for the first time since the Patriots’ Week 9 bye. Since he’s been gone, Lewis can breathe for the first time the backfield established a three-back committee, with Lewis working early downs, Burkhead getting a little bit of everything (especially in the red zone), and White continuing to work as the two-minute/third-down back. This division of labor can’t be trusted moving forward considering the differences in touches with Burkhead sidelined this season:

Lewis has emerged as the team’s best back since Burkhead’s early-season absences and could feasibly see a few additional targets and early-down carries. Still, Lewis has only been fed more than 15 carries in two of his 52 career games and doesn’t figure to suddenly inherent a 20-touch role. Gillislee offers upside as a short-yardage vulture in a #RevengeGame, but White could actually have the largest role in replacing Burkhead’s 3.6 targets per game. White averaged an additional 3.5 targets per game from Weeks 2-6 with Burkhead sidelined.

C.J. Anderson ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) and Devontae Booker ($3,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): The Broncos backfield appeared to shift towards Booker in Weeks 11-12, but Anderson has since racked up at least 19 touches in three consecutive games including 30 carries last Thursday night – the most carries he’s had in a game since 2014. Paxton Lynch (ankle, questionable) has failed to lead the offense to more than 20 points in each of his three career starts, but another high-volume performance for Anderson would behoove the Broncos considering the Redskins field the league’s worst defensive line in adjusted-line yards.

Joe Mixon ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) and Giovani Bernard ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Mixon has practiced in full this week and is expected to work as the Bengals featured back for the first time since Week 13.This should delegate Bernard to a pass-catching role unworthy of his elevated price tag across the industry. Mixon’s matchup doesn’t have much reason for optimism either considering he could be without both starting left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi (shoulder, questionable) and right tackle Andre Smith (knee, IR). The Lions have hardly been a run defense to avoid this season, but it’s fair to question the upside of any back working behind a banged-up version of the league’s fourth-worst offensive line in adjusted line yards, let alone one that has scored just 14 points over their last eight quarters.

Devonta Freeman ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Tevin Coleman ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Coleman has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to suit up against the Saints. His presence is bad news for Freeman, who converted a season-high 27 touches into 194 total yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers on Monday night. Freeman has routinely balled out with Coleman sidelined, averaging 24.7 DraftKings points per game without Coleman compared to 16.9 points per game with since 2015. Both backs have a good matchup against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked defense in rush DVOA at the at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football.

DeMarco Murray ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) and Derrick Henry ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Frantz Fanon once said, “Understanding something new requires us to be inclined, to be prepared, and demands a new state of mind.” Fanon clearly never attempted to evaluate the Titans backfield, because it’s Week 16 and no amount of preparation and inclination can explain why Murray continues to work ahead of Henry:

Henry would likely be the overwhelming favorite to be picked above Murray in a backyard football game, but Henry will remain a volatile week-to-week fantasy option due to his minimal receiving role and lack of overall snaps. Murray is PFF’s No. 1 pass blocker among all running backs, with a goal line and receiving workload large enough to make him the more viable fantasy option in spite of real life ability. The Rams’ 19th-ranked defense in rush DVOA isn’t impenetrable, but limited touches in an offense that hasn’t surpassed 24 points since Week 6 leads to limited floors and ceiling for both backs.

Mike Davis ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) and J.D. McKissic ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): The clock struck midnight last week on Davis’ Cinderella like rise to the top of the Seahawks’ backfield. He gained just 39 total yards on eight touches, while passing-down back McKissic played 64 percent of snaps and converted his nine touches into 58 total yards. Davis has flashed in the open field, but he carries a low floor as a game-flow dependent back running behind the league’s third-worst offensive line in adjusted line yards. McKissic is set up better this week as a road dog against the Cowboys’ 26th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. pass-catching backs.

Samaje Perine ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) and Kapri Bibbs ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Perine suffered a groin injury in practice Thursday and should be considered questionable for Sunday. He was expected to work as the Redskins’ three-down back with Byron Marshall (hamstring, IR) sidelined, but Bibbs wound up working as the offense’s clear change-of-pace back. Perine out-touched and out-snapped Bibbs 16-6 and 33-16, but the latter converted his touches into 53 total yards and a touchdown compared to just 66 scoreless yards from Perine. Head coach Jay Gruden said Monday that Bibbs will get more work over the last two games. Both backs could struggle to find running room against the Broncos’ second-ranked defense in rush DVOA, but Bibbs has a chance to find some success through the air against the Broncos’ 22nd-ranked defense in DVOA against pass-catching backs.

The Model Running Backs

There are several running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two backs standing out among multiple models:

  • Melvin Gordon ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
  • Christian McCaffrey ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel):

Gordon may never be one of the league’s “best” backs, but he’ll continue to find his way into winning DFS lineups as long as he’s featured like one. Workload has been the least of Gordon’s concerns since the team’s Week 9 bye, as only Bell has more total touches over the past six weeks. Also working in Gordon’s favor this week are favorable injuries on both the Chargers offense and Jets defense:

  • Chargers: Pass-catching backup Austin Ekeler (hand, questionable) is a game-time decision and will play with a cast if active. A potential increase in targets bodes well for Gordon against the league’s 24th-ranked defense in DVOA against pass-catching backs.
  • Jets: The Jets have funneled opposing offensive production to the air for the better part of Todd Bowles‘ three seasons as head coach. That was mostly a result of having three studs in Sheldon Richardson (now in Seattle), Leonard Williams (concussion, questionable), and Muhammad Wilkerson (coach’s decision, questionable) working in the trenches.

Gordon joins Gurley and Hunt as the only running backs in our Pro Models with both a projected ceiling of 30-plus points and a projected floor over 10 points. Of course, Gordon’s price tag is well below those aforementioned backs, and his top-five Projected Plus/Minus across the industry demonstrates his value. Gordon is the only running back priced over $5,000 on DraftKings with a 35 percent Bargain Rating.

The Panthers didn’t appear to have an immediate plan for weaponizing McCaffrey at the start of the season, but he’s emerged as an efficient slasher capable of causing problems for defenses all over the field. As a running back, McCaffrey has averaged 5.33 yards per carry since the Panthers’ Week 11 bye compared to just 2.98 yards per attempt in Weeks 1-10. Lately he’s received additional work out of the slot and out wide, as the Panthers have seemingly gained trust in his ability as a pure receiver:

McCaffrey’s DraftKings salary shot down to its lowest mark since October after Jonathan Stewart‘s three-touchdown explosion, and it has yet to fully rebound despite his 25.6 DraftKings points last week against the Packers. He has an ideal matchup against the Buccaneers’ 29th-ranked defense that could be without front-seven difference makers Gerald McCoy (biceps, questionable) and Lavonte David (hamstring, questionable). McCaffrey may not have the typical workload of a RB1, but his receiving prowess at least gives him fantasy-friendly opportunities for his limited touches, as evidence by his 13 targets inside the 20-yard line – tied for the third-highest mark among all running backs.

Positional Breakdowns & Tools

Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 16 positional breakdowns:

• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

Good luck this week!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.

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