In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are four wide receivers near the top of the Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Justin Jefferson
- Ja’Marr Chase
- DK Metcalf
- Nelson Agholor
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. New York Giants (48.5 total)
Justin Jefferson was a focal part of Minnesota’s comeback last week, catching 12 of 16 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown. He now has 23 catches for 346 yards in the past two weeks, amassing 69.6 DraftKings points.
His usage is top of the market, with eleven or more targets in four straight games and in 10 games on the year. The acquisition of T.J. Hockenson has helped Jefferson, as it’s drawn more attention away from him and given him space to operate. Since Hockenson joined Minnesota, Jefferson leads the NFL in targets, catches, and yards while catching five touchdowns.
Jefferson has also been able to operate more downfield as of late, with a depth of target of 11.8 yards and 32.2% of his targets coming in the intermediate area of the field.
The Giants love to blitz and play man coverage, which bodes well for Jefferson. He’s been targeted on 32.6% of his routes against man coverage since Hockenson arrived, as opposed to 24.7% before. He also commands a team-high 33.3% of team targets when Cousins is blitzed.
He’s the top receiver in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at New England Patriots (41.5 total)
Ja’Marr Chase has been force-fed targets the past two weeks, seeing 15 and 13 targets. He’s caught 17 balls for 179 yards and two touchdowns in that span. Despite missing a good chunk of the season, he has four games of 30+ DraftKings points, including three in the past five games. He consistently has one of the top ceilings at the wide receiver position.
Chase is now averaging 11 targets per game and gets a matchup with a New England defense that loves to play man coverage. He’s been targeted on 33.7% of his routes against man coverage as opposed to 23.9% versus zone. We know Burrow loves to go to his main man, so the defense giving him any more reason to do so is noteworthy.
New England has fared well against a tough slate of opposing receivers. Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins had solid games (7/92/1 and 7/79/0), while Davante Adams was shut down (4/28.0). We’ll see if talent can trump the matchup this week.
Chase is the top receiver in our Tournament Model this weekend.
DK Metcalf ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+10) at Kansas City Chiefs (49.5 total)
With Tyler Lockett now out due to injury, we’re going to see a hefty serving of DK Metcalf on Saturday. It’ll be the first time in Metcalf’s career that he’s playing without Lockett. Metcalf already had a 25.9% target share while being targeted on 25.2% of his routes in a thin target tree.
With few other viable pass-catching options, we may see a monster target share from Metcalf this weekend. Metcalf has run 144 career pass routes without Lockett on the field, seeing a target on 28.5% of those routes and averaging 2.07 yards per route run. He’s run 25 routes with Lockett off the field this year, seeing a 32% target rate per route run.
The game environment and matchup also set up perfectly for Metcalf, as this game has by far the highest total on the slate, with Kansas City being a high-powered offense. The Chiefs have also given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. They’ve also allowed 15 touchdowns to opposing WRs, with the next closest team at nine.
It’s hard not to get excited about Metcalf this weekend. He’s the top wide receiver in our Cash Game Model.
Nelson Agholor ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): New England Patriots (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (41.5 total)
Nelson Agholor has got a ton of usage the past two weeks but hasn’t been able to do anything with it. He saw 10 targets against Arizona, catching merely five balls for 32 yards. He saw six targets this past week against Las Vegas but caught merely one ball for three yards.
Despite the return of Jakobi Meyers, Agholor’s route numbers weren’t impacted. He still ran a route on 83% of dropbacks, seeing a 19% target rate per route run and 18% of team targets. This was likely due to DeVante Parker remaining out with a concussion. Parker is set to miss again this week, so we don’t have to worry about him taking away from Agholor. At such a cheap price, it’s hard to find guys with those types of metrics.
We’ve seen Agholor get the usage. We just need his catch rate to return to somewhat average. His 37.5% catch rate in the past two weeks is abysmal. If he can just return to a modest catch rate, he can capitalize on his usage. He caught six of eight targets on Thanksgiving Night, going for 65 yards and a touchdown for one of his best games of the season.
He’s the top receiver in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
D.J. Moore ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Detroit Lions (43.5 total)
The Panthers have shifted towards a run-heavy approach under Steve Wilks, which has been tough for D.J. Moore’s volume. He hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game since Week 8 and has needed to be hyper-efficient in order to produce. He caught four balls for 106 yards and a touchdown in Week 12 and five balls for 73 yards and a touchdown last week against Pittsburgh. Outside of that, it’s been mostly duds from Moore.
When Sam Darnold is throwing the ball, he looks Moore’s direction. He has a team-high 26.8% team target share with Darnold under center. The matchup is good, as opposing receivers have gashed Detroit after they started to patch up the run.
Since Week 6, no defense has given up more receptions or yards to opposing wideouts than Detroit.
Jakobi Meyers ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): New England Patriots (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (41.5 total)
Jakobi Meyers had a pedestrian game in the box score last game, catching two of six targets for 47 yards. However, it was his blunder on the last play of the game that has gotten all of the media attention this week. His ill-advised lateral on the last play of the game was intercepted by Chandler Jones and returned for a touchdown.
However, we don’t really care too much about that. We’re looking for fantasy points. He was close to a big game on Sunday, having a touchdown called back, drawing a defensive holding penalty in the end zone, and getting overthrown on a walk-in touchdown.
Meyers is a solid bounce-back candidate this week.
Richie James Jr. ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): New York Giants (+4) at Minnesota Vikings (48.5 total)
The New York Giants’ wide receiving corps has tightened up, and Richie James Jr. has become part of the three-man crew that they’re relying on. He’s run a route on 93% and 86% of dropbacks in the past two weeks, seeing nine and five targets. He caught seven balls against Philadelphia for 61 yards and a touchdown and four balls for 42 yards against Washington.
Minnesota gets gashed deep down the field, which is not where James Jr. does his damage. However, he has seen a steady stream of targets when he’s been on the field and is very cheap in one of the best game environments of the weekend.
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