The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for the 10-game Week 16 slate. Remember, the slate begins are 1 p.m. ET Saturday, with a three-game slate played Sunday.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. Seattle Seahawks – $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes again projects for the highest ceiling on the week in what looks to be a prime matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who rank 25th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
The Chiefs are a massive 10-point home favorite in a matchup with a 49-point total, one of the highest on the slate. Leading a dangerous and hyper-effective offense, Mahomes handles under-center duties for one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 63%/37% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz), tied for the third-highest passing frequency while using a 26.5-second-per-snap play-calling scheme, which is also one of the highest in the league.
The superstar quarterback should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 321 passing yards per game and a 67.4% completion rate. In a 30-24 win over the Houston Texans in Week 15, Mahomes passed for 336 yards and two touchdowns and should make for a prime candidate to reach an 85th-percentile outcome, despite the high price tag, facing one of the weaker offenses in the league.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Mahomes appears in matchups above a 49-point total, he averages 27.28 actual DraftKings points, with a +4.03 Plus/Minus and a 59.4% consistency rating.
A more expensive stack, Mahomes should likely be paired with Travis Kelce and Seattle Seahawks skill players in DK Metcalf as a bring-back.
Top Value: Gardner Minshew at Dallas Cowboys – $4,800 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
Philadelphia Eagles backup quarterback Gardner Minshew projects as a top value option on DraftKings, likely leading an Eagles offense in a road matchup against NFC East rivals Dallas Cowboys, who are one of the stout defenses in the league, ranking eight in DVOA.
NOTE: As of this writing, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has not been officially ruled out, although all indications look toward the star quarterback sitting in Week 16.
Minshew last started for the Eagles in Week 18 of the 2021 season against the Dallas Cowboys. In a 26-51 route, Minshew completed 19 passes for 186 yards and two touchdowns.
According to PFF, the Cowboys rank 10th in overall defense, which looks to be a tough test for the young backup. However, Minshew is a solid option that should unlock higher-priced skill-position players, given his hyper-discounted salary on DraftKings. In a rivalry matchup with a 47-point total.
Look for plenty of stacking options, with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in the Eagles receiving corps and Cowboys skill players in CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tony Pollard all as viable bring-backs.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington Commanders – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a Commanders defense that looks tough on paper, ranking fourth in rushing DVOA.
In eight weeks as a member of 49ers, McCaffrey is averaging 14.4 rushing attempts per game, averaging 4.64 yards per carry, seeing 6.4 targets per game and 8.4 yards per reception, making him an all-purpose player, and integral to San Francisco’s success.
In a Week 15 21-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks, McCaffrey rushed for 108 yards on 26 attempts, finding the end zone once, and was targeted eight times, catching six passes for 34 yards. Even with a difficult matchup, McCaffrey can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome given his volume in the 49ers offense and versatile playmaking ability.
With THE BLITZ, Derrick Henry projects for the highest ceiling in a matchup with the Houston Texans. As the narrative goes, Henry absolutely smashes the Houston Texans defense. In a Week 8 matchup, Henry rushed for a season-high 219 yards on 32 rushing attempts, finding the end zone twice and recording 38.80 DraftKings points.
A 4.5-point favorite at home, look for the Titans to keep the foot on the gas, with Henry being the centerpiece.
Henry should continue his dominance against the lowly Texans defense. Fade at your own risk.
Top Value: Dalvin Cook vs. New York Giants – $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Dalvin Cook projects as a top value in a matchup against the New York Giants, who rank 31st in rushing DVOA, despite having a higher salary for value plays.
Cook is an integral part of the high-powered Vikings offense, responsible for 70% of the rushing share, averaging 16.4 rushing attempts per game and 4.54 yards per carry. Alongside the infamous receiving corps of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, Cook also averages 3.4 targets per game, making him a key player in the passing game as well. In a wild 39-36 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15, Cook rushed for 95 yards on 17 attempts, also catching four passes for 95 yards and one touchdown.
However, with guaranteed volume in what looks to be a close game, as the Vikings are favored by four points, Cook becomes a fantasy-viable option and can easily reach value.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson vs. New York Giants – $9,300 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
Justin Jefferson projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 16 against the New York Giants, who rank 24th in pass DVOA — a prime matchup for an elite wideout.
Jefferson is responsible for a 29% target share and is the preferred option for Kirk Cousins, averaging 11.3 targets per game and 14.6 yards per reception. Further, look for Jefferson to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in nine of the Vikings’ 14 games this season, as recording a touchdown in six games. In the 39-36 win over the Indianapolis Colts last Saturday, Jefferson was targeted 16 times, catching 12 passes for 123 yards and one touchdown.
Aside from the volume, Jefferson is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 24 red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, only behind Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Despite being the most expensive option on the slate, Jefferson’s volume and touchdown upside consistently make him a prime candidate to have the slate-breaking ability and reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Noah Brown vs. Philadelphia Eagles – $3,600 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Cowboys wide receiver Noah Brown projects as a top-value option this week in an NFC East matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank second in pass DVOA.
This season, Brown has a modest 15% target share behind CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and Michael Gallup, seeing 4.8 targets per game and 13.3 yards per reception.
Brown, in recent weeks, has seen his volume increase with at least six targets during his last two games. In a 34-40 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, Brown was targeted nine times, catching six passes for 49 yards and two touchdowns.
To add, if the passing volume should continue for Brown, his digestible salary on DraftKings makes him a fantasy-viable option.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Seattle Seahawks – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
If Patrick Mahomes reaches a ceiling outcome, expect Travis Kelce to have a significant role and should also reach a similar outcome. Kelce continues to be one of the more matchup-proof skill players in the league, projecting for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Seahawks defense ranked 19th in pass DVOA.
A likely unstoppable force, Kelce should continue to be the first-look option for Mahomes, who is responsible for a team-leading 24% target share. Kelce is averaging 12.6 yards per reception and 9.1 targets per game this season. Of course, Kelce is also a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings. He is in the ballpark (90+ receiving yards) in seven of the Chiefs’ first 14 games and should also be considered for his touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in seven games.
The Chiefs stack is a very expensive one, but consistency and touchdown upside looks to be the main benefit in a high-total matchup and is worthy of a second look.
Top Value: Dalton Schultz vs. Philadelphia Eagles – $4,200 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
Dalton Schultz projects as a top value at tight end given his discounted salary on DraftKings. Schultz has a modest 18% target share, which is second in the Cowboys’ receiving corps, averaging 5.5 targets per game and 10.3 yards per reception.
In a 40-34 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Schultz was targeted four times, catching two passes for 15 yards. With the consistent volume, Schultz becomes a salary relief option in a matchup with a 47-point total, despite facing the number two pass DVOA defense in the league — the Philadelphia Eagles.
Be sure to pair Schultz with Eagles skill position players, especially AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, or Miles Sanders.
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