The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Fields vs. Arizona Cardinals – $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
With 18 quarterbacks on Sunday’s slate, there are several strong ceiling plays to consider. Justin Fields has the top ceiling projection on FanDuel in the FantasyLabs projections, THE BLITZ projections, and Chris Raybon’s projections. In an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of those projections, Fields also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
On DraftKings, Fields gets edged for the top ceiling spot in the aggregated projections by Dak Prescott, but he still has the top median projection and is a much better per-dollar play since he’s $800 cheaper than Dak.
Despite some uneven recent results, Fields brings a very high ceiling due to his running potential. In his four games since returning, Fields has thrown three touchdowns and run for a score as well. He has averaged 193.75 passing yards and 62.75 rushing yards per game in those four games.
This week, he will get his most favorable matchup since returning as the Bears host the Cardinals. Arizona has been the fifth-best matchup for opposing quarterbacks this season. Last week, they allowed four touchdown passes, bringing their total for the season to 26. Opposing quarterbacks have also added four rushing scores this year while producing 235.9 passing yards and 14.5 rushing yards per contest.
Fields should be able to put his full skill set on display against Arizona this week, and he will continue to try to make his case as the quarterback of the future in Chicago since the Bears will face big decisions in the upcoming NFL Draft with multiple high picks.
Top Value: Nick Mullens vs. Detroit Lions – $5,300 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Using our aggregate projections, Nick Mullens stands out as the best value play on Sunday’s slate by far. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the most Pts/Sal of all quarterbacks on both sites. He’s projected to bring 90% Leverage on FanDuel and has a 67% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. On DraftKings, he is only the 14th-most expensive play on the board but brings the third-highest median projection and fifth-highest ceiling projection.
Although he has been around the NFL for a while, he hadn’t started for the Vikings before last week. He completed 26 of 33 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns in Cincinnati last Saturday and had the Vikings in a good spot to get the win before a late Bengals rally. As good as Mullens’ day was, it could have been even better if it hadn’t been for a pair of interceptions deep in Cincinnati territory, including one at the goal line.
Mullens will again get to work with an elite group of pass-catching options led by Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. He also showed a strong connection with rookie receiver Jordan Addison last week.
The matchup against the Lions should be a good one for Mullens since the game has the second-highest over/under on the slate. The Vikings will have to score points to keep up with their division rivals, and since they’ll be inside the dome in Minneapolis, they should be able to move the ball through the air with plenty of yardage and points resulting for Mullens.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Rachaad White vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,400 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Coming into the season, I didn’t anticipate a Rachaad White chalk week, but here we are. Injuries and star running backs on other slates leave White as the clear go-to stud option in this week’s Models. He has the highest median, ceiling and floor projection at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings.
White has been a workhorse for the Bucs all season and has gotten consistent volume. His 3.8 yards-per-carry average isn’t awe-inspiring, but he has proven that he can find the end zone and grind out good totals since he gets so much volume.
In his last seven games this season, White has scored seven touchdowns. He has totaled over 100 yards rushing and receiving in four straight weeks and racked up over 20 carries in each of the last three weeks. Not only is he carrying the load in the running game, but he also regularly adds production as a pass-catcher. He has averaged 3.6 catches for 33.5 yards per game and has multiple catches in every game this season.
This week, when the Bucs host the Jags, White is expected to be the focus of the offense once again. Opposing running backs have found the end zone four times in the last three weeks, and they have been especially productive in the passing game, averaging 6.6 receptions for 44.6 yards per game on the season.
White’s volume of workload gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor in this matchup, making him a top play this week.
Top Value: Devin Singletary – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
There are still questions about who will play quarterback for the Texans, but whether C.J. Stroud returns or Case Keenum gets another start (the latter seems more likely), Devin Singletary will be one of the top value running backs on the board. Singletary has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on FanDuel in the blended three-way projections and the second-highest on DraftKings.
Singletary has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in five of his last six games with an Average Plus/Minus of +8.64 DraftKings points over that span. With Stroud sidelined last week, he had 121 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards on four catches despite a tough matchup in Tennessee against the Titans.
He’s in another tough matchup this week against the Browns. However, opposing running backs have been able to total at least 100 yards rushing and receiving against Cleveland in five of the past six weeks while scoring six touchdowns.
After emerging at midseason, he has claimed the top spot in Houtson’s backfield, supplanting Dameon Pierce, who began the year as the starter. Singletary should be busy with or without Stroud in this home matchup, and he has a very high ceiling at his relatively affordable salary.
If you need to go even cheaper, Tyjae Spears has been getting more work as the backup to Derrick Henry. He brings a high ceiling as the Titans take on the beatable Seahawks’ run defense. Spears brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all plays under $5,000 on DraftKings and under $6,000 on FanDuel.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb at Miami Dolphins – $9,200 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
The Cowboys were rolling until last week when things came to a screeching halt in Buffalo. A big part of their success was the emergence of CeeDee Lamb as a go-to elite receiver, but last week, he was held to 53 yards on seven catches and didn’t find the end zone.
The models indicate he’ll have a big bounce-back week this week against the Dolphins, though, so it’s a good week to get back on the CeeDee train. He has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the blended three-way projections and has the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel.
Even in last week’s down game, Lamb remained the focus of Dallas’s passing attack with 10 more targets. He has at least nine targets in each of his last eight games and averaged 103.9 receiving yards and 8.6 catches on 12.4 targets over that span. He also had seven touchdowns during that stretch.
The matchup between the Cowboys and the Dolphins has the highest over/under on Sunday’s slate, and the Cowboys have the third-highest implied team total. Opposing wide receivers have scored 13 touchdowns in the last 12 games against Miami and have averaged 145.4 receiving yards on 13 catches per game for the season.
Lamb projects to be the best big star to build around at receiver this week, with Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown as other pay-up alternatives.
Top Value: Drake London vs. Indianapolis Colts – $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
The Falcons are making a change at quarterback, and if the offense gets going, Drake London has the potential to be a top value play. London has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings, where he has a 53% Bargain Rating.
London has been extremely volatile the last few weeks, partly due to inconsistent quarterback play. He showed his upside two weeks ago in his last home game when he went off for 10 catches and 172 yards against the Bucs. Unfortunately, he struggled in the rainstorm in Carolina last week and only had two catches for 24 yards.
Hopefully, with Taylor Heinicke replacing Desmond Ridder, London can find more consistency. Whether Heinicke is the long-term answer or not, he does enough to raise London’s ceiling this week to make him a good value play.
Heinicke started in Week 9, but London missed that week with a groin injury. This will be their first game starting together, and London should be featured in the gameplan. It should be a good matchup for him since opposing receivers have four touchdowns in the last four weeks and have produced over 100 yards in each of those contests with an average of 124.75 yards per week. The matchup could be sneaky high-scoring, and London should be a big part of that production.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Chicago Bears – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Even after his continued impressive performances, Trey McBride isn’t the most expensive tight end on either DraftKings or FanDuel on this slate. He still has the median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position, though, and he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on DraftKings as well.
The Cardinals will be without Marquise Brown (heel) this week, so McBride should remain the go-to option for Kyler Murray. In his last seven games, he has averaged 7.3 catches for 77.4 yards on 9.1 targets per game. He has also scored both of his two touchdowns this season during that span.
The Bears have been one of the best matchups for tight ends this season. Opposing tight ends have scored seven touchdowns against Chicago while averaging over 50 yards per game. McBride should be poised to keep rolling and put up another big game.
Top Value: David Njoku at Houston Texans – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
With Joe Flacco under center for the Browns, Njoku has become a top tight end option as well. In the aggregated projections, he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of tight ends on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings, behind only McBride.
In the last two weeks, Njoku has exploded for three touchdowns while totaling 16 catches for 195 yards against the Bears and Jaguars. Njoku was even on a good track before those monster games, though, and has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games on DraftKings.
Like McBride, Njoku gets a great matchup this week to boost his ceiling even higher. Opposing tight ends have averaged 62.5 yards against the Texans and found the end zone four times this season. It’s hard to choose between Njoku and McBride, and playing both using your utility spot is definitely an option to consider as well.
