In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Justin Fields
- Nick Mullens
We’ll discuss why these quarterbacks are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Justin Fields ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (43 total)
Justin Fields struggled last week, but that was to be expected against a stingy Browns defense. He completed just under 50% of his passes for 166 yards and a touchdown while running for 30 yards on the ground.
He gets a much softer landing spot here against the Cardinals, who have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Fields’ struggles this year have come against teams that can generate pressure. Lucky for us, Arizona is not one of those defenses.
They have the league’s lowest blitz rate while owning the third-lowest pressure rate. Fields has averaged over eight yards per attempt when not pressured, compared to 4.6 yards when under pressure. This is a strong spot for the Chicago quarterback.
Fields has the second-highest ceiling projection and floor projection on the weekend.
He’s the top quarterback in our Cash Game and Tournament Model, as well as Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Nick Mullens ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+3) vs. Detroit Lions (47 total)
Nick Mullens showed out in his first start of the year, completing 26 of 33 attempts for 303 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 9.2 yards per attempt, attacking deep down the field and not just throwing dump-offs.
The matchup was advantageous, as Cincinnati has put up little resistance against opposing quarterbacks. The good news is that he gets another plus matchup here, as Detroit has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Over their past eight games, Detroit has allowed the third most yards per pass attempt and the fourth-highest touchdown rate. Mullens laps the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, looking like a slam dunk in all formats.
Mullens is the top quarterback in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Baker Mayfield ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (41.5 total)
Baker Mayfield sliced and diced a Packers defense that has been tough on opposing quarterbacks. He completed 22 of 28 passes for 381 yards and four touchdowns, a pure masterpiece. It’d been a middling season for Baker, topping 20 DraftKings points just four times before last week.
Mayfield now gets a plus matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. In the six games since their bye, Jacksonville has allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt and second-highest completion rate. Mayfield looks like a solid option this weekend.
Joe Flacco ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (-3) at Houston Texans (40 total)
Joe Flacco has thrust his way back into our lives, and he’s been chucking it for the Browns. He’s attempted at least 44 passes in each of his starts, with 17.16, 25.34, and 22.86 DraftKings points. Kevin Stefanski has been aggressive, which gives reason to be optimistic about Flacco.
Houston has allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and they’ve been trending in the wrong direction as of late. Zach Wilson threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns against Houston in Week 14. Flacco ranks fifth in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, looking like a strong option in tournaments this weekend.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Dak Prescott ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins (50 total)
Despite owning the second-highest ceiling projection, Dak Prescott is currently projected to barely see any ownership. He struggled last week against a solid Buffalo defense. Who cares? All of these guys have down games. We now have, by far the best quarterback on this slate in the best game environment of the weekend, barely projected to see ownership.
Since Jalen Ramsay returned, this Dolphins defense has been elite. They’ve allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt, allowing seven touchdowns while forcing ten interceptions. However, I don’t care. It’s 2023, and defense doesn’t matter. Prescott is elite, his weapons are elite, and Miami has faced a fairly weak slate of quarterbacks as of late.
Taking the best quarterback at such low ownership is a gift, and it’s the holiday season. I’ll take all the gifts that I can get.
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