Welcome to The Forward Pass. This piece offers a few notes from Week 15 and makes forward-looking statements about Week 16 and beyond.
1. Antonio Brown Partially Tears Calf
After losing Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (knee) last week for the rest of the season, football fans feared the worst when Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (leg) exited in the second quarter of his Week 15 matchup against the Patriots. When Brown was taken to the hospital, his injury seemed to be serious. Fortunately . . .
Schefter: Antonio Brown has a partially torn calf, expected to be back for postseason. https://t.co/zci3iqWkAc
— FantasyLabs NFL (@FantasyLabsNFL) December 18, 2017
. . . the Steelers (and postseason daily fantasy players) will likely have him back after Week 17. The last time Brown missed a game due to injury was 2012, when he sat out three games with an ankle sprain. In the half-decade since then, Brown has led the league with 855 targets, 580 receptions, 7,824 yards receiving, and 52 touchdowns receiving.
We have little way of knowing what the Steelers offense will look like without Brown, but we do know that since 2011 quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has 285.1 yards and 1.84 touchdowns passing per game with Brown. Before 2011, Roethlisberger averaged 227.3 yards and 1.45 touchdowns. With games against the Texans and Browns to close the season, the Steelers should be able to keep the No. 2 seed in the AFC — but we’re about to get a sense of what life for Pittsburgh is like without the best receiver of this generation.
2. Nick Foles Is Playing Like it’s 2013
After Wentz’s injury, backup (and former starter) Nick Foles was tasked with the job of quarterbacking the highest-scoring team in the league. For one week at least, he was up to the task against the Giants, who entered the game allowing the most fantasy points on the season to opposing quarterbacks with 21.2 DraftKings and 20.0 FanDuel points per game (PPG). Doing his best Wentz impersonation, Foles finished as a top-five fantasy passer and led the Eagles to a 34-29 win as he took just one sack and dished out four touchdowns to four different receivers on 38 attempts. With the win, the Eagles clinched a first-round bye.
Against teams other than the hapless Giants, is Foles capable of serving as a legit Wentz replacement? Maybe. If we ignore his Jeff Fisher-tainted season (2015), then we see a quarterback who in his first three seasons (2012-14) had 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) and last year with the Chiefs had an 8.5 AY/A. In his 2013 Pro Bowl campaign, Foles was legitimately the most impressive non-Peyton Manning passer in the league. In Week 16, Foles gets the privilege of facing the Raiders defense, which is dead last against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average. He’s a full-on fantasy option. When our NFL Models go live on Tuesday, be sure to check out his rating.
3. It’s Not as if 0-14 Bodes Well for the Future
In the modern era, only four NFL teams have gone winless for an entire season: The 1960 Cowboys (0-11-1) in their first season, the 1976 Buccaneers (0-14) in their first season, the 1982 Colts (0-8-1) in a strike-shortened season, and the 2008 Lions (0-16), who just sucked for no reason in particular. Since the league expanded the regular season from 14 to 16 games in 1978 only four teams have started 0-14: The aforementioned Lions, the 1980 Saints, and last year’s and this year’s Browns. The Lions fired head coach Rod Marinelli after the season, and the Saints fired HC Dick Nolan after his 0-12 start. Browns HC Hue Jackson, however, is somehow still in Cleveland even though the team is 1-29 under his (cough) leadership.
Last year the team was able to pull off an unlikely win at home in Week 16 against the Chargers. This year they finish the season on the road with games against the Bears and Steelers. The Bears have opened as -7.0 favorites, but the game has a slate-low over/under of 38.0 points, there’s often value on underdogs in low-scoring games, and the Browns have gotten the supermajority of the early bets. If the Browns are to get a win, it will almost certainly need to be in Week 16. Although owner Jimmy Haslam and new general manager John Dorsey have expressed their support for Jackson and intent for him to remain with the team next year, it’s hard to imagine a winless coach keeping his job. Then again, we’re talking about the Browns. Jackson just might be the first coach ever to ride a 1-31 record into his third season with a team: However this works out, we’re witnessing history.
4. The Jaguars Are Going to the Playoffs
For the first time since 2007, the Jaguars are going to the playoffs. At 10-4, they could even steal the No. 2 seed in the AFC if the Steelers falter without Brown. Much of Jacksonville’s success is due to their defense: They entered Week 15 with league-best marks in sacks (47), turnovers (30), first downs (211), yards per play (4.7), scoring rate (23.0 percent), and points (202) — and then they punished the T.J. Yates-‘led’ Texans 45-7 even though they were without lead back Leonard Fournette. (It’s almost as if it was unnecessary for them to spend the No. 4 overall pick on a running back.) The Jags have winnable games on the road against the 49ers and Titans to close the season. In all probability, they will win the AFC South and host at least one playoff game. I wouldn’t bet on a Jags Super Bowl run — sorry, Chad (P.S. Subscribe to the newsletter) — but Blake Bortles has been a top-five fantasy quarterback over the past month, so anything is possible.
5. The Cowboys Are Still Alive
Thanks to their thrilling 20-17 push victory over the Raiders, the Cowboys are still in the playoff race. Tied with the Lions and Seahawks at 8-6 and trailing the Falcons by a half game (the Falcons play the Bucs on Monday Night Football), the Cowboys need to win out to make the playoffs, and they also need the Lions to lose a game and the Falcons to lose two games. That’s not likely, but it’s possible. Linebacker Sean Lee returned from injury a couple of games ago, and he is perhaps the most important member of the Dallas defense. With Lee, the Cowboys this year have allowed just 16.9 PPG; without him, 29.3. On top of that, running back Ezekiel Elliott returns this week, and the Cowboys are at home against the Seahawks, who were just destroyed by Rams running back Todd Gurley for 180 total yards and four touchdowns. In Week 17 they’re on the road against the Eagles, who could maybe be in a position to rest their starters. It’s conceivable that the Cowboys could win out.
As for the Lions, they’re popular -4.0 road favorites this week against the Bengals, but in Week 17 they could get the loss on the road against the Packers. And the Falcons could easily close out the season with two losses, as they play the Saints (10-4) on the road in Week 16 and host the Panthers (10-4) in Week 17. There might be some value on Cowboys futures. Be sure to check the content at Sports Insights, Bet Labs, and Sports Action to see what they have to say about Dallas’ playoff odds.
Bonus: #Legatron
Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein is still breaking the salary scale for his position at FanDuel. He entered Week 15 with 148 NFL points, the most ever in a season for any kicker-only player. (By “kicker-only” I mean to exclude players from the 1950s and 1960s who were halfbacks or receivers as well as kickers, like Hall-of-Famer Paul Hornung). Against the Seahawks, Zuerlein added 10 more points to his total. It feels ridiculous to talk about a kicker (cough, cough), but Zuerlein provides such a huge positional Plus/Minus edge that he pretty much deserves to be mentioned every week. Plus, I secretly like talking about kickers.
Research the Week 16 games with our Tools and Models.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
