The Defense and Kicker Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (80 teams) have averaged 10.01 points with a +1.84 Plus/Minus and 8.5 percent average ownership so far this season, while defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (103 teams) have averaged 9.02 points with a +1.65 Plus/Minus and 68.2 percent average ownership. With two weeks left in the regular season, paying up for defenses continues to be slightly more valuable on DraftKings.
The Big Two Defenses
- Jacksonville ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
- Los Angeles Chargers ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Big Cats on the Prowl
As stated seemingly every week this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are on a historic run. They are currently on pace to be the highest-scoring and most valuable (in terms of Plus/Minus) fantasy defense of the past four seasons. Jacksonville has averaged 13.57 points per game (PPG) with a +5.39 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +6.13 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Next up for the Jaguars is a spunky 49ers team — winners of three straight games with Jimmy Garoppolo — implied to score 19 points as 4-point underdogs in San Francisco. The Jaguars have posted ludicrous numbers in their six games away from #Sacksonville this season, averaging 21.17 PPG with a +13.13 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +13.74 Plus/Minus on FanDuel . The Jaguars have scored double-digit fantasy points in all of their road games this season and have scored 20 or more points in four of the six.
The Jaguars lead the NFL with 51 sacks, a 10.0 percent sack rate, and a 9.3 percent adjusted sack rate (per Football Outsiders) — and they rank second with their 4.4 percent interception rate and 20 interceptions. San Francisco’s offensive line has been slightly below average, allowing the 14th-highest adjusted sack rate (7.4 percent) in the league this season, and we currently have the Jaguars projected for the most sacks (4.0) on the main slate.
Powder Blues
The Los Angeles Chargers hit the road to play the New York Jets as 6.5-point favorites. The last five defenses facing the Jets have averaged 10.20 PPG with a +2.72 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.31 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Meanwhile, in their last five games the Chargers have averaged 12.60 PPG with a +5.16 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. It’s safe to say the Chargers’ matchup is a good one. Prior to last week’s stinker in Kansas City, the Chargers had averaged 15.75 PPG with a +8.21 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 14.67 PPG with a +7.47 Plus/Minus since their 10th game of this season.
The Chargers have two of the best pass rushers in the league — Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram — who have combined for 21.5 sacks. Overall, the Chargers defense ranks sixth with a 7.5 percent sack rate. The Jets offensive line has allowed the fourth-highest adjusted sack rate (8.7 percent) in the league. Sounds like a recipe for a sack lunch, which is why we currently have the Chargers defense projected for the second-most sacks (3.8) on the main slate. If sacks aren’t your thing, the Chargers have two players (Tre Boston and Casey Hayward) tied for seventh in the NFL with four interceptions each and they’ll both get their shot at Bryce Petty, who threw two interceptions last week.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
Carolina Panthers ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): The No. 1 rated DraftKings defense in the Bales Model, the Panthers host Tampa Bay as large 10-point favorites (the third-highest spread on the slate). Carolina — who is second to only Jacksonville with their 9.1 percent adjusted sack rate — is tied with the Chargers for our second-highest projected sack total (3.8) this week. The Panthers D/ST has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of their last four games, during which they have racked up 14 sacks, five interceptions, and two touchdowns.
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Playing as 10.5-point favorites at home against Miami, the Chiefs are one of the top-rated FanDuel defenses in the CSURAM88 Model. The Chiefs have seemingly found something with their defense recently as they have limited their last two opponents to 15 points or less while racking up five sacks and five interceptions in those games. Kansas City’s D/ST has been very good at home this season, averaging 10.14 PPG with a +3.15 Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Chiefs have hit double-digit fantasy points in four of seven home games and failed to meet their salary-based expectations only twice.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
The slate’s most expensive kicker, Greg Zuerlein ($5,400) was surprisingly placed on injured reserve Wednesday with a back injury so Stephen Gostkowski ($5,200) slides into his spot atop the kicking salary spectrum this week. We currently have Gostkowski projected at 13 to 16 percent ownership at home against Buffalo as a slate-high 12.5 point favorite. Kickers at home favored by 10 or more points have averaged 9.36 FPPG and a +1.18 Plus/Minus with a 54.3 percent Consistency Rating since 2014. Gostkowski has excelled in these spots historically, averaging 11.22 FPPG with a +2.86 Plus/Minus and 77.8 percent Consistency. The Patriots kicker currently owns the highest median points projection (13.4) and Projected Plus/Minus (+4.94) in our NFL Models.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Phil Dawson ($4,600): The Cardinals-Giants game in Arizona currently has the second-lowest total (40.0) on the slate, and as a result Dawson is projected for zero to one percent ownership. That said, he has our second-highest projected Plus/Minus (+4.48) and median points projection (12.4). Dawson is a cheap contrarian play that could pay off for players willing to take a risk.
Graham Gano ($4,800): You probably should use our Lineup Builder to make a boatload of Gano and Panthers D/ST stacks. The Panthers are implied to score the third-most points on the slate (28.3) against the Buccaneers, and Gano has a solid points projection (11.1) and low ownership projection (five to eight percent).
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Good luck, and be sure to research the Week 14 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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