Welcome to the Week 16 Vegas lines deconstruction. If you’re unfamiliar with what we do in this piece, here’s the gist:
- We’re breaking the implied team total into three scoring types — passing, rushing, and kicking points.
- To do this, we’re leveraging the rates at which teams score their points and opposing defenses concede them in each phase of the game.
In the below tables you’ll see a column labeled “Matchup %.” That number takes the percentage of total points an offense has scored in a specific way, such as through passing touchdowns, and averages it with the percentage of total points the opposing defense has allowed for that same scoring type.
Highlighting matchups that feature offenses and defenses that score and allow points in similar ways presents an opportunity to exploit the implied team totals. To do that, we apply the “Matchup %” to the implied team total to break it down into projections for passing, rushing, and kicking points. These projections are not fantasy points; rather, they are expected in-game points derived from the implied team totals.
As always, consult the NFL homepage for more information on individual matchups that stand out. Also, visit the Vegas page for any line movement. Let’s jump into the Week 16 deconstructions.
Passing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Passing Touchdown Points Rate: 40.7 percent
Note: Lines pulled from Sports Insights on December 19.
Can the Seahawks Bounce Back?
A week after a demoralizing loss, Seattle heads to Dallas as five-point underdogs. Russell Wilson put up a dud in Week 15 but still has nine games of at least 24 DraftKings points in his past 12. That’s in large part because he accounts for such a high degree of Seattle’s offense, having thrown or rushed for 33 of their 34 offensive touchdowns. Dallas has conceded the third-highest rate of points through passing touchdowns while generally keeping teams from scoring on the ground, rates that align with Seattle’s tendencies as an offense. The disastrous home performance for the Seahawks offense in Week 15 might serve to keep ownership relatively muted on Wilson, who could find himself in need of a fourth quarter comeback, a situation where he’s proven time and again he can rack up fantasy points.
Salary Savings
Drew Stanton is set to take over for Arizona at rock bottom prices of $4,500 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. With a plus matchup against a Giants defense giving up the second highest rate of passing scores on the year, the Models give him the top Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and second-highest on DraftKings. Arizona is favored at home in a game with a low total, but Eli Manning has had his highest and fourth-highest pass attempt totals of the season in the two games since Ben McAdoo was fired. There’s some potential for this to turn into a pass-happy game if that small sample holds and the Giants continue to let Manning turn it loose. If that happens, Stanton should have an easy time accumulating the counting stats to reach value at such a depressed salary.
Rushing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Rushing Touchdown Points Rate: 20.4 percent
Is Gillislee in Play?
New England comfortably tops the rushing projections due to their matchup with the Bills’ porous rush defense. Rex Burkhead rushed for two scores when these teams met in Week 13, but he’ll be out for Week 16. That means Mike Gillislee will likely be active for the first time since Week 8. In Gillislee’s eight games this year, he rushed at least eight times in each but was never targeted with a pass attempt. He started the season with the goal-line role but had lost most of those high-value touches to Dion Lewis before being deactivated. In the five games from Week 4 to Week 8, Lewis had seven carries inside the 10-yard line to Gillislee’s three. Gillislee is dirt cheap in a great matchup, but with no receiving work and plenty of uncertainty about the high-value touches, he is probably inferior to Lewis as a value play.
Zeke Week
Ezekiel Elliott returns from a six-game suspension just in time to face a reeling Seahawks defense that got thrashed by Todd Gurley a week after Leonard Fournette went for 100 yards and a score against them. While injuries to linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright have played a role in their recent slide, they have now given up the seventh-highest rate of rushing points on the season. Dallas is itching to get Elliott back, but they haven’t had trouble running the ball without him. He’s a good bet for a heavy workload behind an offensive line that’s still creating holes. Track the health of the Seahawks linebackers, but Elliott is a strong play this week at a slight discount to the highest-priced backs.
Kicking Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Kicking Points Rate: 32.7 percent
Legatron
The Rams draw the Titans, making the often-popular Greg Zuerlein a great option. There are strong arguments for fading a high-priced kicker, but the Titans are allowing a league-high 41.7 percent of points through the kicking game. Zuerlein is in a great spot to hit double digits, something he’s done in seven of his past nine games. In a week with few min- or even low-priced kickers with solid team totals and plus matchups, it’s worth considering paying up for Zuerlein.
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Ben Gretch is the Senior Fantasy Analyst at RotoViz, where he authors the weekly column Stealing Signals.
