The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Dallas Cowboys – $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
The top two quarterback salaries are matched up head-to-head in the biggest game of the week. The highest ceiling projection at quarterback this week comes from Josh Allen as his Bills host Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. The Bills-Cowboys matchup is tied for the highest over/under on the main slate and should be a good fantasy-scoring environment on both sides.
Allen has the top median and ceiling projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Projections, THE BLITZ projections, and Chris Raybon’s projections. He matches five Pro Trends on DraftKings, the second-most of any quarterback, and two on FanDuel, which is the most of any player at the position this week.
Over the last few weeks, Allen has continued to struggle with turnovers but has also put up big numbers. Since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, Allen has thrown six touchdowns and ran for three more scores in three games while averaging 282.3 passing yards and 42.3 rushing yards per contest. He has scored multiple touchdowns rushing or passing in 12 straight games dating back to Week 2.
The Cowboys’ defense has been excellent this season and will be a tough matchup for Allen. Opposing quarterbacks have only thrown 17 touchdowns in 13 games against them this season, but they have been able to score two rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks.
Allen’s rushing potential always makes him a top ceiling option to consider, and he could run even more than usual if the Cowboys bring pressure. After out-dueling Patrick Mahomes last week on the road, Allen will need his A game to get a critical home win over the Cowboys.
Top Value: Matthew Stafford vs. Washington Commanders – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
Using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the FantasyLabs, Raybon’s, and THE BLITZ projections, Matthew Stafford has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all this week’s quarterbacks on DraftKings by a wide margin. He is priced up a bit more on FanDuel, so he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on that site behind Josh Allen.
Stafford comes into this juicy home matchup on a nice roll. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games by throwing for at least three touchdowns in each of those contests and averaging 267.3 passing yards per game. The Rams have used multiple receivers successfully throughout the season and even got rookie tight end Davis Allen involved last week when Tyler Higbee was out. Higbee looks to be on track to return, so Stafford will have all his options at his disposal this week.
The Commanders have been a dream matchup for quarterbacks this season. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 278 passing yards per game against Washington this season and thrown for 30 touchdowns in 13 games. In nine of their last 10 games, the Commanders gave up multiple passing scores, including three games with four passing scores allowed.
Stafford is in a great place to carve up the Commanders in the late window and brings the highest ceiling projection at the position in the aggregated projection on DraftKings, where he matches seven Pro Trends, more than any other QB on the slate.
The Rams’ matchup with the Commanders is tied with the Bills-Cowboys for the highest over/under on the slate. Since Stafford only has the 11th-highest salary at the position on DraftKings and FanDuel, getting anywhere near his ceiling performance will make him an elite value play and a key to unlocking superstars in other roster spots.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at Arizona Cardinals – $9,300 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel
As usual, Christian McCaffrey is the most expensive running back on the slate, but he also brings an elite ceiling and continues to be one of the best projected ceiling and bargain plays every week. He has the top ceiling, median and floor projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections and has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus as well.
He matches 13 Pro Trends on both FanDuel and DraftKings for this week. No other running back has more on DraftKings, and only Kyren Williams matches more Pro Trends on FanDuel. McCaffrey is much cheaper on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating. He’s a viable play if you can save up the salary on either site, but he’s easier to build around on DraftKings and should be able to outproduce his salary much easier.
Last week, CMC was held out of the end zone, but it’s hard to say he had a down game. He racked up 145 rushing yards on 16 carries and added an eight-yard reception. He had a touchdown vultured by Jordan Mason but set up that three-yard touchdown with a 72-yard run on the first play from scrimmage. CMC still has 17 total touchdowns in his 13 games and should be a good pick to get back into the end zone this week.
He’s in a great matchup against the Cardinals on Sunday. Arizona allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs over the first 13 games of the season. Opposing running backs averaged 120.5 rushing yards and 29.4 receiving yards while scoring 18 touchdowns. McCaffrey had 106 yards and three touchdowns against them in Week 4 and will look to post another huge number in this rematch on Sunday afternoon.
Top Value: Ezekiel Elliott vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
While his former team’s recent offensive surge has been the talk of the NFL, things have been going pretty well for Ezekiel Elliott as well. With Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) expected to miss a second straight game, Elliott is poised for another big week as the featured back in the Patriots offense. He has the top Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at running back in the aggregated projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel by a wide margin. He also has the highest Pts/Sal in the flex position on FanDuel and the second-highest in that spot on DraftKings.
Elliott stepped in as the Pats’ feature-back last week and played a season-high 91% of the team’s snaps. While the veteran ground out just 68 rushing yards on 22 carries last Thursday, he still had a good fantasy day due to his 72 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown on seven catches. Elliott exceeded salary-based expectations for the third time in the last four weeks on both DraftKings and FanDuel with his best showing of the season.
He should be in a good spot to build on that performance this week against the Chiefs. The Patriots will likely go run-heavy early to try to keep the game close but may have to throw more late in the game. Since Zeke is so involved as a check-down option for Bailey Zappe, though, that would probably be a very favorable game script.
The Chiefs took a brutal loss to Allen and the Bills last week, but going on the road to New England isn’t usually an easy game (just ask Allen and the Bills). The Chiefs’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack against running backs this season, but last week they gave up 86 rushing yards and 106 receiving yards to Bills’ running backs last week. Opposing running backs have six touchdowns in the last seven games against the Chiefs, and Zeke should have a good chance for a score on Sunday.
In his expanded role, the Patriots should feed Zeke on Sunday, which gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor as an inexpensive solution at running back.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb at Buffalo Bills – $9,200 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
The Cowboys’ recent success has been largely in part to the emergence of CeeDee Lamb as one of the top receivers in the NFL. He has the top ceiling, median and floor projection of the receivers on Sunday’s slate and will hope to help his Cowboys ride out of Buffalo with a huge win.
Lamb has been the focus of Dallas’s passing attack and has at least nine targets in each of his last seven games. He has averaged 111 yards with 8.8 catches on 12.7 targets over those seven games while scoring seven touchdowns during that span. He had two touchdowns to start off his scoring spree against the Rams and has found his way to paydirt one time in each of the last five games.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last eight games on both DraftKings and FanDuel and even though his salary has climbed, he’s projected to do so again this week against the Bills.
Opposing wide receivers have scored four touchdowns in the last two weeks against the banged-up Bills secondary. In 10 of their last 11 games, the Bills have allowed double-digit catches and over 100 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
Lamb is the big star to build around at receiver this week if you have the salary with Deebo Samuel and Puka Nacua as other pay-up alternatives.
Top Value: Rashee Rice at New England Patriots – $6,100 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
He’s not quite as much of a value as he was last week, but Rice continues to be an excellent under-priced value play at receiver. The Chiefs offense has plenty of firepower and gets a good matchup this week against the Patriots. In the blended projections, Rice has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on FanDuel and the seventh-highest on DraftKings.
While he hasn’t gotten to Tyreek Hill’s level in the Chiefs’ attack, he has emerged as the top wide receiver for Mahomes. He has at least nine targets in each of his last three games and has been able to haul in at least seven catches in each of those contests. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those games and found the end zone twice. The rookie has big-time playmaking ability, and he should continue to deliver now that a steady workload is coming his way.
Rice’s matchup with the Patriots is actually a pretty good one. Opposing receivers have six touchdowns in their last six games against New England while averaging 181.3 receiving yards per game. Rice looks like he’s the best option at wide receiver for the Chiefs, so he should get the majority of that production this week.
Since Rice’s price is over $6,000 on DraftKings, you may want to go even cheaper at the position. Wan’Dale Robinson (who I highlighted here) is a good bargain play to consider, along with Garrett Wilson, Demarcus Robinson, and Curtis Samuel.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. San Francisco 49ers – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
Coming back from his bye week, Trey McBride is still too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to our projections for him this week against the 49ers. McBride has the top Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections, and it really isn’t even that close.
McBride’s emergence as the Cardinals’ go-to option in the passing game has given him both a high floor and a high ceiling. The second-year tight end has averaged 8.0 targets per game over his last eight games, converting 6.0 catches to 66.4 yards per game and a pair of touchdowns. He is such a target magnet that he should be a good play even if he doesn’t get into the end zone since so many passes come his way.
While the 49ers are excellent on defense, opposing tight ends have totaled at least 55 yards in three of the last four weeks and got a touchdown last week.
Top Value: Chigoziem Okonkwo vs. Houston Texans – $2,900 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
On DraftKings, Okonkwo has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends using the aggregated projections. He has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and can be a great way to fit a play under $3,000 in your flex spot. Okonkwo is outside the top 20 tight ends in salary on DraftKings but has a top-10 ceiling projection.
Okonkwo has been showing a good connection with rookie Will Levis in the past few weeks. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of his last three games, with at least five targets and 45 yards in each game.
The Texans are a great matchup for tight ends. The Jets’ tight ends totaled 94 yards against them last week, and the Jaguars had 104 yards three weeks ago. Opposing tight ends have averaged 64.5 yards against them per game this season and have scored four touchdowns.
