In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Christian McCaffrey
- Kyren Williams
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Christian McCaffrey ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals (47.5 total)
For just the second time this season, Christian McCaffrey failed to find the end zone. He still had a solid day, taking 16 carries for 145 yards and catching one ball for 8 yards. Seventeen touches are somewhat on the low end for McCaffrey, but San Francisco was in control for most of the game.
McCaffrey went nuclear when these teams played in Week 4. He took 20 carries for 106 yards and three touchdowns while catching seven of eight targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. In case you lost track, that’s 51.7 DraftKings points.
It’s unlikely that he will replicate that production, but this is still a smash matchup. They’ve allowed the second-most scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs and the second-most touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, they’ve allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing backs as well.
McCaffrey is third in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary and is the top back in our Tournament Model.
Kyren Williams ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders (50.5 total)
I keep banging the drum for Kyren Williams, and his price is finally starting to creep up. His workload has been tremendous since returning from injury, handling 22, 26, and 29 touches over the past three games.
He took 25 carries for 114 yards last week and caught three balls for -1 yard. Few backs have 20+ carry and five target upside, but Williams is one of them.
This is a great spot for him, as he’s a home favorite against a poor Washington defense. They’ve allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to opposing backs on the year. It’s been worse as of late, allowing 30 DraftKings points to Saquon Barkley and 22.3 DraftKings points to Tony Pollard.
Williams is the top back in our Cash Game Model, as well as Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Rachaad White ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers (42 total)
Targeting running backs against Green Bay has been a weekly tradition for as long as I can remember. They’ve allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs on the year. It’s been worse as of late, allowing the second-most yards per carry and most rushing touchdowns in the league over the past five weeks.
White’s touch volume has been remarkable lately, with 23 or more touches in three of the past five games. Even in a massively negative game script, he still saw nine carries and seven targets. White grades out fairly well in our models also, ranking sixth in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary.
Ezekiel Elliott ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): New England Patriots (+7.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (37 total)
Ezekiel Elliott found the fountain of youth last week, parlaying 22 carries and eight targets in 140 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. His 27 DraftKings points were by far his best output of the season against a fairly stout Pittsburgh defense.
The volume was very promising, as he’s now seen 22 and 30 touches in back-to-back games. If New England can keep this game somewhat close, Elliott should be fed. Kansas City has allowed the second most yards per carry to opposing backs on the year, giving Elliott a good shot at efficiency. The pass-catching role gives him a solid floor, and he’ll be able to smash value if he can find the end zone again.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at New England Patriots (37 total)
The Clyde Edwards-Helaire hate this week is befuddling to me. He had 11 carries and four targets last week in a tightly contested game. Does that look any different than an Isiah Pacheco game log in a close game? If Pacheco were $5,000 this week, people would be scratching and clawing to play him.
There are currently fourteen running backs projected to be higher owned than Edwards-Helaire. CEH dominated the role inside the 10, and out-touched Jerick McKinnon 13-to-7.
New England has allowed the fewest yards per carry to opposing backs, but Edwards-Helaire is attached to an offense with a high-implied team total while dominating the short-area touches. He burnt people last week, but I’m happy to go right back to him at a cheap tag and low ownership.
